Dallas at Denver (05/13/2009)

Away:  Dallas [44-47 ATS]
Home:  Denver [53-37-1 ATS]

Game Time: 9:00 PM
Stadium: Pepsi Center

Recent Meetings:
05/11/09 - DEN 117 vs. DAL 119
05/09/09 - DEN 106 vs. DAL 105
05/05/09 - DAL 105 vs. DEN 117

Team Leaders:

Dallas:
Points: Dirk Nowitzki (25.9)
Assists: Jason Kidd (8.4)
Rebounds: Dirk Nowitzki (8.6)

Denver:
Points: Carmelo Anthony (23.3)
Assists: Chauncey Billups (6.4)
Rebounds: Nene (7.6)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

Like I said before - I'm gonna keep riding the Nuggets & the Cavs until they show me otherwise - Denver -8.5

thinking denver is just going to crush dallas here...make a statement after all the drama in dallas...o/u will be close i think but lets gamble   denver/over bol 

I'm curious what anyone thinks about the over-under...  beyond "take the over" or "no way, the under is great."

As I look at it, the one game that's gone way over the over, and way over the current 213 o-u, was game 4 -- sans Birdman to harass Dirk (and prevent layups), and in Dallas. 

And the regular season games, particularly in Denver, were lower-scoring. 

Thus, one idea I have is, tease Denver down to 3-4 points, with a tease on the under up to 219.  If the score from Randyand above is about right, and I think it is, they make the under -- and make it easily on a tease. 

Dallas averaged less than 100 in their last three appearances in Denver, going back to January.  And in a close-out game, I see both teams playing inspired defense.  (As Denver did last game; they just didn't have their KG.)

Denver might be hot at home, they might just conform to their home average...  but I do see them coming out and playing solid d, and Dallas, at least making an effort.

In a Denver blowout (which didn't happen last two games, especially 1Q-3Q), I see both teams happy to keep the clock running in the fourth quarter.

In a closer game through 1Q-3Q (the pattern in their last three Denver meetings), the teams averaged less than 213, and would have been 2-1 under 213.  Everyone plays a little more carefully with the ball in that scenario. 

And as great as he is -- the best ppoint guard in the NBA for actually winning games; sorry CP3 -- I don't see Chauncey continuing to hit 60 percent from 3land.  He might have an "off" game and shoot 2 for 5. 

So, I like the under.  But would welcome substantive comments.

Thanks to Nikos Greekos btw for his comment above -- which appeared while I was writing...

Always good to have some contrarian thinking.  I tend to like Denver on a tease, and even straight up.  But 10 points is a lot.  "Everyone" knew the Cavs would cover in game 4 Atlanta, but they didn't unless you bought the hook. 

That said, let me tell you why I still like Denver at this spread:

Dallas fits the profile of a team that will, ahm, yah, I'm sorry, lay down a bit if the game is against them.  I don't mean literally stop trying, but there's trying, and then there's the frantic, desperate, resolute effort needed to win a game like this, or even make it close -- and I don't see them having it.

Veteran teams who have "been there," and know they've lost a series -- Detroit this year, Miami two years ago -- fit the profile of a team that does get closed out in a decisive, cover type of game.

Denver fits the profile of a rising team that will go home and take care of buziness...  having almost done so even without Birdman, on the road, in game 4.  And they do have a little added motivational edge tonight.  I'm glad they're using it.

Having predicted Denver in five (see my pre-series blog post), I still like it, and I like them to cover.

But I also appreciate Nikos's comments above -- a rare example of someone doing some actual thinking, and posting something that adds value for all of us that are interested in making some money, rather than going "rah rah my team."  Thanks NG.

As well, take a look at Dallas on the road to end the regular season.  (I discount the San Antonio series a tad...  a decimated team.)  The two wins were over Minnesota and Indiana, by 2 points.  They lost to New Orleans (!) by 10, to Memphis, to Cleveland by 28 (all right, Cleveland -- but they laid down like dogs), the Lakers, Atlanta, and Golden State. 

You have to look back a long way for a quality road win, or even a quality road cover, by Dallas.  I'd put that on March 11, winning at Portland.  Good for them.  But that was two months ago. 

Still likin' the Nuggets.