Cleveland at St. Louis (10/28/2007)

Most people are surprised to see this Cleveland team at 3-3. Without a missed field goal as time expired vs. Oakland, they'd be 4-2. The bigger surprise is seeing St. Louis coming into this one 0-7. They are off a 33-6 beat down last week. The combination of these three things have resulted in the unthinkable: Cleveland favored on the road at St. Louis. If you had to guess this pointspread in the preseaosn, you would have guessed St. Louis by 7-10 points. Sense where we are going with this? Derek Anderson has been a feast or famine QB for Cleveland as he has 14 TD passes, but has also been picked off eight times. Jamal Lewis has done a good job with his new team, but his 4.9 ypc average is a bit tainted. He broke one for big run for 66 yards and without that he's a smidge over 4.0 per carry. The Browns may be without him Sunday as he will be a game time decision. The offense is not deep but they are talented, with Edwards and Winslow getting most of the action in the passing game. But, despite their 3-3 record (4-2 ATS), the Browns have been outgained this season by their opponents by an average of 59 yards per game! This is a team that struggles defensively to put pressure on the QB, so Marc Bulger will have more time than what we have seen to date for the Rams. St. Louis has not seen the endzone in two weeks, and are 0-7, so how can I be on them? This is a different team than they have fielded most of the year. Marc Bulger returned last week and their biggest weapon, Stephen Jackson returns this week along with WRs Dane Looker and Drew Bennett. Teams as futile as St. Louis actually contain hidden value from a betting perspective. Teams that are 0-7 or worse teams are 10-1 ATS since 2000 and I have another system that has connected on 65% in the NFL that is active for this game with over 100 plays in it. This one looks ugly, but as I said before, stats don't determine who covers the pointspread in games in this league. The fact is, the Rams are a live home dog at the peak of value. Often when a team seems so bad, that you can't imagine betting on them, is the time to back them (i.e. my pick on Atlanta last week). I'll take the "ugly" Rams here as a very live dog.