Kansas at Kansas St. (02/14/2011)

Away:  Kansas [13-10 ATS]
Home:  Kansas St. [6-13 ATS]

Game Time: 9:00 PM
Stadium: Bramlage Coliseum

Recent Meetings:
01/29/11 - KANST 66 vs. KAN 90
03/13/10 - KANST 64 vs. KAN 72
03/03/10 - KANST 65 vs. KAN 82

Team Leaders:

Kansas:
Points: Marcus Morris (16.9)
Assists: Tyshawn Taylor (4.8)
Rebounds: Markieff Morris (8.5)

Kansas St.:
Points: Jacob Pullen (18.0)
Assists: Jacob Pullen (3.7)
Rebounds: Rodney McGruder (6.4)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

Yeah, already got pounded by a few people on how this is a "sucker" bet for all the squares, narrow-minded, and newbie rookie bettors.  There are people who think that Kansas -4 is a bad play.

I had my finger on the clicker as soon as it refreshed into existence.

Kansas -4

I don't mind the nay-sayers.

Enjoy boys, the almighty Vegas is throwing the bait out there and I'm hooked already!

Here's my 2 cents that I copied from another forum topic (there were thoughts that the line was low cuz K-State is good at home):

Colorado - Lost by 8

Texas Tech - Won by 34 (as they should have, it's this year's Tech)

Baylor - Won by 8

Nebraska - Won by 16

One good game there.  Beating Nebraska by 16 is a good win.  otherwise I don't see them "playing so much better" like people would assume.

Their non-conference home games were junk.  Savannah St., North florida, Missouri Kansas City, Alcorn St., Emporia St??, Texas Southern, Presbyterian and James Madison.

Emporia St.?? is that even Division I basketball??

ONE EARLY SEASON (2nd game of the year) HOME WIN:  Virginia Tech by 16.

Good stuff, keep the info coming.

Ohhh, I am not one of the people who think Selby and Robinson being out is going to give K-State the keys to the car at home.

I'm all over this game.

I usually use a lot of my spare time to do long, well-informed write-ups on games that I believe in.  I don't think I'll be doing that this time.

Kansas -4

BOL

Just warning you before I start:  I'm not trying to offend you and what you are putting your money on.

But I just find the ML here to be a waste, and maybe I'm wrong, maybe K-State DOES put up a fight, but paying DOUBLE MONEY (-200) for 4 points doesn't sound like much value in a game that should be a DD win for Kansas.  That's just my opinion.

BOL

Yeah, not sure you caught my write-up on that game or not, but I try to only post write-ups on games that look tasty.  The Wildcats rocked my balance up lastnight, and I'm not gonna let Vegas's fish hook keep me away from this one either!

The line is currently -6.5 in my book, up off the original -4.

BOL

I see your point brothah but this thread is solid. I have made some $$$$ because of the input from everyone wether its one sided or not. Texas "D" I have a lot of respect for and his analysis is almost always on point. I too have a problem with this line being so low especially Ohio State going down to Wisconsin this past weekend. One thing I must point out is that Kansas is ranked #2 and with #1 losing, they must win impressively to take over that spot. Kansas has also won against Kstate almost every meeting for the last 10. They have also come very close to beating Texas. I personally think that it will be a high scoring game as it is a rivalry and KState will press full court form the beggining. iMO the best bet for this game is Kansas Jayhawks at the half -3. The back door cover is possible because I have seen teams winning the second half against them. The reason for that is if they have a lead from the 1st half, they tend to play carefull and conservative in the second.

KU 1st half -3 

Hawaii -4 (Their last game was on the 5th and Nevada played this Saturday. They are also playing at home and they always play harder)

WVA +5.5 (Always a close game and WVA is a tough ass team away and at home.

If this is a "trap" game and the almighty Vegas throws a low line on Kansas for all the "public" to bite on,...then I think I'll send my sportbook a thank you card for following it's Master Vegas' command of throwing us a bone here.

Kansas -4 (at the time) was a gift, just like Arizona -5 and dropping was a gift, ohh and Texas -1 against Texas A&M.

I think Vegas and his minions (the sportsbooks) are looking to get through those pearly gates, as this Kansas -6 line is STILL good.  Don't feel like it's not becuz it was once at -3.5/-4 lastnight when I snagged it.

Don't feel propelled to buy the points down to -3/-4 either.  The books love that stuff.  Do the math, on average games are seldom won or lost by the points that you buy at hefty prices.  I'm sure the books don't mind paying you less for the money that you risked.

If you COVER your spread with the money line, you really shouldn't be betting on the spread then!  You bet on a spread because you believe it is MORE likely that'll go your way than not.

If you look at these teams, there is no close comparison in a Kansas team minus two players and a disfunctional K-State that has some real issues.

Kansas is EXCEEDING EXPECTATIONS by looking at their ATS record.  That's what an ATS record is!  Those spreads are the estimated margin of victory and if a team covers more than they lose, they are EXCEEDING what people believe they are capable of.

If you K-State and are 6-13 ATS, you are a disappointment and are underachievers.  As their fans now believe, they are definately a disappointment compared to the expectations in the pre-season.

OK, I really didn't want to waste my time overthinking this game.  -6 for Kansas is low.  Just because K-State really know that beating KU would almost guarantee them an NCAA Tourney bid, it doesn't mean that their baskets drop ANY easier than ANY other game, mostly against #1 in the country; the Kansas Jayhawks.

And yet again I keep spittin good feelings to you people.

Enuf said, Kansas will NOT let this be close.  There is no comfortability of being close in a game that you know you shouldn't lose.  Kansas rolls.

BOL

TexasD