Wednesday Ponies 6/20

Belmont Early Action:

Not trying to invest a lot since the better racing is later on. Short fields and lots of scratches early.

Race 1: I like #3 Notassharpasyouthink. First time for Richard Violette, love him and Nakatani teaming up on the turf. Has run against much better at FG in those 5 1/2 races and took a ton of money. 7 furlongs looks perfect. The favorite #4 Limonar has had 3 chances in the US and doesn't seem to have the late kick. Siding against until she proves me wrong.

Race 2: #2 Charming Becky is an interesting looking first timer for Eddie Kenneally who is hitting 36% at the meet. Speed on top of speed, tied for the best distance tomlinson for 5 furlongs. Steady work pattern, although I'm not thrilled with the amount of gate works, even though they appear to be solid. Worth a play at 5-1 or better.

Race 3: Only 4 horses after scratches, none stand out, push the ALL button and move on.


Early Pick 3 ($5)

3
2-3
ALL (1-3-4-5)

$40

All right $15.00 horse to get things started. Could pay well if Charming Becky gets home in the 2nd.

Race 2 Pick 4

Gonna play the Pick 4 the same as the early pick 3, but using the #1 also in the 2nd race.

Race 4: Only going 2 deep, not using the chalk #5 Vindicated Ghost, who drops from an Optional Claimer to Maiden 40k. Chased a 21 flat opening 1/4 and tired, probably took a lot out of the horse, and I personally hate this move running against winners then dropping to maiden claiming. I'm using the #7 Aiglemont, an interesting first timer for Michael Hushion/Dominguez (40% connect rate) who seems well spotted and displays a solid work tab. Should be live at a nice price. #8 Irish Wedding for Eddie Kenneally, who is 50% dropping from MSW to MCL. Definitely has a sprinters pedigree, so I expect a very solid effort today.

Race 5: 3-4-9..... tossing that race on the 31st as Tawaared finished beaten 1 length, after finishing a neck to Becky's Kitten in what I though was a very poor race (seemed to grind on forever). That leaves me with 3 horses, and I will use them all, although Exclusive Strike would be my top pick.

$1 Pick 4

2-3-1
ALL(1-3-4-5)
7-8
3-4-9

$72

Jg   

We got one Johnny, hope the rest go as well?  GL

Early Pick 3 ($5)

3
2-3
ALL (1-3-4-5)

$40

Chalk won the 2nd, but this bet is money in the bank! Good start to the day, going to cap the early part of Arlington's card...

mstrH and G.....

Many more to come today hopefully lol!!!! Just trying to make it to Woodbine without losing my ass

GL J 7  

Arlington Early Picks

Race 1: Awful statebred allowance race with the favorite coming off a year layoff and stretching out to a mile. All button in Pick 3, hope for a price.

Race 2: Not much better than race 1. #4 Direct Breeze ran evenly against 16k claimers last out and should fare better on the big drop. #6 Lady Joberg comes back in 10 days after losing the rider last out.

Race 3: Top pick #2 Iolanda's Perfect. Ran well against Italian Breeze 2 back, who was a sharp winner on Saturday's card. Beat Viking by a length last out, who looks like the only competition in here IMO.

$2 Pick 3

All
4,6
2

$24

Had the 3 @ Bel on my watch list, don't know how I missed it

Nice hit J 7 

Bill I wish I had a dollar for every time I let a horse off my watch list slip and win easily

Nice return on the Early Pick 3 at Belmont.... $368.75 from a $40 wager... 3-3-3 might have actually hurt the payout a bit?

+232.75 for the day with pending P4 at Bel and P3 at Arlington.

thats a sweet roi ..........well played

All button is being kind for a change...... $27 dollar winner in 1st at Arlington for some value in P3

Arlington Race 4: Using only 2. The first is the obvious favorite #6 Barb's Buckles. Ran dynamite last race and should appreciate a firm turf course that will play quick much like the last time she ran. #3 baba Lucy is an interesting longshot for Catalano/Homeister Jr. First turf for a trainer who is hitting at a 38% clip in turf sprints, and the 15-1 ML is juicy.

Race 5: 1-3-7... #1 off the claim for a sharp turf trainer, can't exclude a Kitten horse in a 7 horse turf field. #3 Tripping could be dangerous if he gets the early lead, which looks likely. ET Baird one of the best at harnessing that speed and controlling the pace. Just missed at this level last out. #7 hunch play Manny Perez bringing this one back in 5 days and trying turf for the 1st time (well bred for it). Improving pattern (even if its awful) and worth a hunch play... I will probably throw a few bucks WPS on him if hes bigger than 20-1.

$2 Pick 4

4-6
2
3-6
1-3-7

$24

+208.75

Julien the Strangler plays bumper cars once again and give the #8 no shot. No Early Pick 4 for me.

Should have went ALL/ALL/2 at Arlington just had that feeling they were going to pay with such weak fields... turning the page

Belmont Race 5

$5 Exacta Box 3-4-9

$2 Tri box 3-4-9

Arlington Race 3 Pick 3 ($5)

2
3,6
1,3,7

$30

+$136.75

Delaware Race 4

$3 Tri Box 1-7-8

+$118.75

Belmont Late Pick 4

Race 6: 2-4-6... #2 One Note Samba very sharp 4-4 in turf sprints last year and 2-2 at Belmont. Layoff is a concern, but if he is ready to fire he will be tough to deal with. #4 Tazered trouble start last out and closed furiously. Live longshot at 15-1 ML. #6 Strong Impact looks the best if he repeats last out win, Bruce Brown and Castellano have been lights out in the meet (46%).

Race 7: 1-4-9 Gotta try and beat the chalk here which will be tough, but #9 Willy Beamen 2nd off claim for Dutrow, and #4 Modern Child is an improving 4 year old capable of stepping up again to grab the win.

Race 8: The feature going 1 1/4 on the turf. Going 2 deep. #7 Reserve Currency will love this extra distance with Rock Hard Ten on top and Lemon Drop Kid on the bottom. A mile against solid horses was too short for this one last time, expect a much better effort today at a good price (6-1 ML). #9 Barocci looks very very well spotted, placed in Group races twice in France at this distance, finishing ahead of Desert Blanc who came back to win the Manhatten on Belmont day. 3-1 would be great value.

Race 9: Using 2 again, #6 and #7. Treating the #6 Toga Exchange as a first time starter for John Servis, who knows how to place his horses extremely well. Adds lasix and blinks and Irad Ortiz rides, great jock for a price horse.

Late Pick 4 ($1)

2-4-6
1-4-9
7-9
6-7

$36

+$100.75

Belmont Race 6:


$5 Tri Box 2,4,6

+$70.75

River Race 6

$10 Win $6 Norwar..... took money first out MSW, drops to MCL and stretches to 2 turns. Taking money off 12-1 ML.

$5 Exacta 6 / 4,5,7,9

$1 Tri 6 / 4,5,7,9

4-6-7 at Thistle stupid betting not to middle the horse..... would have hit it all ($7.60 place, $40 exacta, $115 tri)

Belmont 2-6-4 Tri paid +97 for 5 bucks

+89.25 day

Arlington Race 4 $5 Tri Wheel 3,6/3,6/all

+49.25

2-6-3 at Arlington... 2nd itis there so far...

Delaware Race 6

$2 Super Wheel 2 / 1,4 / 1,4 / all

$2 Tri Box 1-2-4

+25.25

Chalk at Delaware, no big loss there.

Arlington Race 5

.50 Pick 5

3-1-7
4-5
4-2-3
7-2-10
7

$27

$1 Pick 4 in the last 4 for $18

Belmont Race 7 $5 Tri Box 1-4-9 ($30)

-49.75 on the day with P5, P4 and Belmont P4 pending.

7-1 winner in the P4, but a bad spill for Eddie Castro...... hope he is OKAY, great rider!