Preakness Pick - Creative Cause

If he goes off at the morning line of 6-1 that would be a very nice price.  

He's 6 lengths total from being a 9-0 undefeated horse against the best 3yr olds in the country.

3 of those lengths came in the Kentucky Derby when he had probably the worst trip of any of the Derby horses in this race according to TRAKUS.  ARTICLE     Wide on both turns and in a tight jam entering the backstretch.

He ran 29 feet further than I'll Have Another and 70 feet further than Bodemeister in the Derby.   29 feet converts to 3.5 lengths which is more than what Creative Cause lost by (3 len) in the Derby.    He's already beaten Bodemeister and was within of nose of beating I'll Have Another in previous races.

I'm not going to try guessing which horses are going to bounce.   Some of them will, some of them won't.        Although Baffert doesn't seem to be very sure about what he's going to get from Bodemeister.    Bodemeister and I'll Have Another will be chalk so I wan't no part of that.

Rosario is obviously a good jockey and Creative Cause will more than likely get a much better trip this time.   I like him to stalk Bodemeister a few lengths behind and hopefully run him down in the stretch.

Just an excellent 3 yr old and if he goes off at 6-1 that is true value in my opinion.   

I'm not worried about the flying cross country either.   I posted an article on here that airplane trips sometimes IMPROVE horses' performance.  ARTICLE

For gimmicks obviously, Bodemeister, I'll Have Another, and Went The Day Well.

For a live longshot I like the #2 Teeth Of The Dog.   He was scratched from the Peter Pan at Belmont last weekend to run in this race I believe.   If that's true, that's a good sign that he's in top form.   Mike Matz his trainer is the trainer of Union Rags also.    Teeth Of the Dog was right there with Alpha and Gemologist in the Wood Memorial and that was his first run off a layoff and first stakes race.  He didn't get the cleanest of trips in that race either.    He's working well at Fair Hill and should improve in this race.   

So #6 Creative Cause over  / 2, 5, 7, 9 in the gimmicks.

Good Luck   

 excellent......You Mention>...For a live longshot I like the #2 Teeth Of The Dog.   He was scratched from the Peter Pan at Belmont last weekend to run in this race I believe.   If that's true, that's a good sign that he's in top form.

I like the running style ....certainly will be coming late with a bid...hopefully Jersey Joe is on his game Saturday....he's got some decent horses throughout the day not just Teeth of the Dog and will really light up the toteboard if he can snap them off at the wire...in this Preakness....sweet....!! nice longshot pick hound...

Funny, I wathced the overhead and thought exactly the opposite.

The overhead shows CC got pinched a bit heading into the first turn and was very wide around both turns. At least the overhead I watched showed that.

The value you'll get on Creative Cause makes him the play, for my money at least.

HB

Found some photos from the Derby for you to look at.    

LINK TO PHOTOS

As far as Creative Cause is concerned, look at the 4th and 5th photos down.   You can see the tight spot he was in going around the first turn.  He's the horse to the outside of Dullahan in that photo.

In the 5th photo down, you can see how wide Creative Cause was coming off the turn.  He's to the outside of I'll Have Another.   You can also assume he was pretty much that wide going around the turn itself.   I'll Have Another and Went The Day Well were also wide.   Went The Day Well is behind Dullahan in that photo.  Bodemeister rode the rail the whole race.

This is the best photo of the finish line I could find, although from that angle they look a little bit closer to each other than they actually were.   And that's a little bit past the wire.

FINISH LINE PHOTO

You can see how close the top 5 horses were to each other.   Creative Cause is the horse in the middle.   Went The Day Well is second from the left.  Dullahan is on the outside.   Bodemeister is on the rail.   I'll Have Another is the one in front.

Here's another photo when they are approaching the finish line.  The only difference from the finish is that the 2nd horse from the outside passed, Went The Day Well, passed Creative Cause for 4th.

APPROACHING FINISH

What's your point Greyhound?   

The Preakness is far from the two horse race that people are making it out to be when you consider the trips that everybody got and how close they were at the wire.   

Add 29 feet to the position that Creative Cause is at the wire compared to where I'll Have Another is.   Add 70 feet To Creative Cause's position compared to where Bodemeister is.   

PHOTO    

That's a little farther back than the photo above, rounding the turn heading into the stretch. 

Creative Cause and I'll Have Another are on the far left losing ground to Bodemeister.  

Went The Day Well is well back from them on the outside in the red cap with the green sleeves.     

Crusher13   

PHOTO   (right as I'll Have Another crossed the finish line)

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 PHOTO   (Entire 77 photo slide show) 

You can see how wide Creative Cause was in a lot of those shots.

OK, I'm done with the photos.    

Jeremy Plonk said the same thing in his column.    I read an article that said Matz entered him in the Peter Pan just in case he couldn't get into the Preakness and then when Dullahan and somebody else scratched , they got in.    The fact that they are considering the Belmont if that is true is interesting considering the 1.5 mile distance of that race.   The distance of the Preakness should be no problem.

One other thing about this horse.    If you look at his Feb 4th win in a  maiden race at Gulfstream, guess who finished 4th in that race?   That's right, Went The Day Well, who a lot of people love in the Preakness.       Went The Day Well went from that race and broke his maiden in his next race and won the Grade 3 Spiral at Turfway in his start after that and then ran the big one in the Derby.

Teeth Of The Dog took 63 days off after beating Went The Day Well and then ran a respectable 3rd beaten 3.25 lengths in the Wood Memorial vs two Derby horses in his first off the layoff.

If he improves the way Went The Day Well did, he should be sitting on a Grade 3 stakes race type of run at least.    Fair Hill workout times are slower than normal workout times.    Those last two works that Teeth Of The Dog has listed are very solid works.   

Read something else about Teeth Of The Dog being one of the "buzz" horses down at Gulfstream this winter.

I want to correct this sentence.   That was a dumb thing to say.   

I was using Went The Day Well as an example of how horses, especially young, lightly races horses,  improve from race to race.

The point I'm trying to make is that Teeth Of The Dog should improve of his Wood Memorial performance.   It was a good first off layoff run against some good horses,  he's had the proper rest, he's training well and he's apparently a pretty well thought of horse as far  as I can tell.   He's got a very good trainer.  How much he improves who knows?   Went The Day Well won a Grade 3 in his 2nd start after losing to Teeth Of The Dog.    Maybe Teeth Of The Dog can match that, do better, or do worse.   Anything is possible with 3 yr olds like this as Went The Day Well proves.

Good Luck tommorrow.