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This is the most competitive Kentucky Derby that I can remember in a long, long time and it should be a great bettor’s race in addition to being just a great race!

Since any number of 10 or 11 horses can win this race and it’s hard to separate most of them, I’ve decided to do something I haven’t ever done by using a handicapping angle that has been gaining a bit of steam the past few years among the better cappers.

The theory is based on this: the majority of winners who have won the Kentucky Derby in the past 50 years have been in the lead or second with a furlong to the wire.

So I did some rationalizing and devised a handicapping method to play this angle. First, I looked at every horse that has raced 1-1/8 miles the closest distance to the 1-1/4 miles distance of the Big Race. I reviewed which horses were either in the lead or second at the precise distance they would need to be to win the Derby, if my theory is correct.

Next, I looked at their speed figures. Then, I rated each track in which each horse raced while being first or second in the stretch for speed and bias. Next, I assigned added weight to each horse that raced and won, placed or showed at Churchill Downs. For ties, I gave the edge to a horse that might have beaten the one he is tied with or beaten one of the higher rated horses.

My Picks:

#15 Gemologist to win and place…..Undefeated in his career and ready to keep on rollin’.

#6 Bodemeister….Pound for pound he is speed of speed, but, while trends in the Derby have been falling by the wayside, I equate a horse not winning the Derby as an unraced two-year old for 130 years with Joe DiMaggio’s 56 game hitting streak.

#11 Alpha….If you like Gemologist, you might like him. I believe Gemologist is a shade or two better. He was my early Derby pick and might still be had I not analyzed using the angle I chose.

#10 Daddy Nose Best….A real “x” factor here, horses that have come out of the El Camino and Sunland Derby have done OK here (Dennis of Cork; Mine That Bird). I think he is flying at the end and will pick up a major share (Top 5).

#14 Hansen….I am not a fan, but if they run him smart, which wasn’t the case, in my opinion, in his Blue Grass race, he can be in the Top 5 team photo.

#5 Dullihan…..I really like this guy. He is the closer of closers, but can he stay close enough to kick it home in the stretch if there is speed galore upfront?

#8 Creative Cause….This is a great horse and he isn’t overmatched by any means. I am a bit skeptical about how he was handled this week.

#4 Union Rags…..As much as I like liked him in the preps, I had to reconsider based on his Florida Derby performance and match-ups in the second tier coming to the top of the stretch.

#19 I’ll Have Another…..Great potential for Top 5 honors. In the long run, he might prove to be the best of the Californians.

#3 Take Charge Indy….Very nice backstory on the Illinois owners. I am not crazy about the post and wonder if he rates with the Top 7 or 8 I’ve selected.

Mikey!!!!!!!

Disagree on Rags, but good luck to you buddy.

Ahhhhhh....that's why they call it "paramutual" betting. GL DJ!

Mikey, you ever work the DD will pays into your wagering calculations based on the m/l odds in the 2nd half of it? I believe it works on most races with DD's.

G315.....I don't, but I should. My problem is that I get stuck on one thing and forget about other opportunities. Good luck today.

40 minutes to post

I have been to a lot of Derby's and I have not seen the crowd as 0 minutesjacked as they are today. Weather is perfect and the track looks like it was hand-cleaned!

Three new track records yesterday and two more track records here today, so watch for a garbage-pot-full of speed in the Derby!The dirt is blazing.