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Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: Kentucky Derby 138----what a handicapper;s challenge! Picks
mikeyp1 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 5/5/2012 10:48:29 AM

This is the most competitive Kentucky Derby that I can remember in a long, long time and it should be a great bettor’s race in addition to being just a great race!

Since any number of 10 or 11 horses can win this race and it’s hard to separate most of them, I’ve decided to do something I haven’t ever done by using a handicapping angle that has been gaining a bit of steam the past few years among the better cappers.

The theory is based on this: the majority of winners who have won the Kentucky Derby in the past 50 years have been in the lead or second with a furlong to the wire.

So I did some rationalizing and devised a handicapping method to play this angle. First, I looked at every horse that has raced 1-1/8 miles the closest distance to the 1-1/4 miles distance of the Big Race. I reviewed which horses were either in the lead or second at the precise distance they would need to be to win the Derby, if my theory is correct.

Next, I looked at their speed figures. Then, I rated each track in which each horse raced while being first or second in the stretch for speed and bias. Next, I assigned added weight to each horse that raced and won, placed or showed at Churchill Downs. For ties, I gave the edge to a horse that might have beaten the one he is tied with or beaten one of the higher rated horses.

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Posted: 5/5/2012 10:49:49 AM

While this system is somewhat calculated, I believe that I might be close to correct. Here are the rankings:

1)      Gemologist                  116

2)      Bodemeister               111

3)      Alpha                           104

4)      Daddy Nose Best         104

5)      Hansen                        104

6)      Dullihan                       101

7)      Creative Cause            101

8)      Union Rags                  100

9)      I’ll Have Another         100

10)  Take Charge Indy        99

I might be totally full of canal water on this, but I will give it a go.

 

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Posted: 5/5/2012 10:50:23 AM

My Picks:

#15 Gemologist to win and place…..Undefeated in his career and ready to keep on rollin’.

#6 Bodemeister….Pound for pound he is speed of speed, but, while trends in the Derby have been falling by the wayside, I equate a horse not winning the Derby as an unraced two-year old for 130 years with Joe DiMaggio’s 56 game hitting streak.

#11 Alpha….If you like Gemologist, you might like him. I believe Gemologist is a shade or two better. He was my early Derby pick and might still be had I not analyzed using the angle I chose.

#10 Daddy Nose Best….A real “x” factor here, horses that have come out of the El Camino and Sunland Derby have done OK here (Dennis of Cork; Mine That Bird). I think he is flying at the end and will pick up a major share (Top 5).

#14 Hansen….I am not a fan, but if they run him smart, which wasn’t the case, in my opinion, in his Blue Grass race, he can be in the Top 5 team photo.

#5 Dullihan…..I really like this guy. He is the closer of closers, but can he stay close enough to kick it home in the stretch if there is speed galore upfront?

#8 Creative Cause….This is a great horse and he isn’t overmatched by any means. I am a bit skeptical about how he was handled this week.

#4 Union Rags…..As much as I like liked him in the preps, I had to reconsider based on his Florida Derby performance and match-ups in the second tier coming to the top of the stretch.

#19 I’ll Have Another…..Great potential for Top 5 honors. In the long run, he might prove to be the best of the Californians.

#3 Take Charge Indy….Very nice backstory on the Illinois owners. I am not crazy about the post and wonder if he rates with the Top 7 or 8 I’ve selected.

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Posted: 5/5/2012 10:50:40 AM

 

$15 ex key: 15/5,6,10,11,14

$8 ex key: 15/3,4,8,19

$5 ex wheel: 6,10,11,15/3,4,8,19

$4 tri wheel: 15/5,6,10,11,14/3,4,5,6,8,11,14,19

$1 tri wheel: 6,10,11,15/5,6,10,11,14,15/3,4,5,6,8,10,11,14,15,19

Consider playing these at long odds to place and show (10-1 or better): Alpha, Creative Cause Take Charge Indy, I’ll Have Another, Hansen.

 

GOOD LUCK TO ALL!

 

 

 

 

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vetdrm
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#5
Posted: 5/5/2012 11:01:20 AM
Hope all is well Mike  .Gl today

5-15 win/place

10-11-13 place/show

7-12-17 show

Lots of tri wheels and ex's with this lot.
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Posted: 5/5/2012 11:09:07 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vetdrm:

Hope all is well Mike  .Gl today

5-15 win/place

10-11-13 place/show

7-12-17 show

Lots of tri wheels and ex's with this lot.

 

GOOD LUCK VET....they just upgraded the dirt to fast, but it does look a bit cuppy to me and its stiull drying out. Leparoux two for two in the first two races.

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#7
Posted: 5/5/2012 11:15:00 AM
rail may not be the place to be
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#8
Posted: 5/5/2012 11:17:05 AM
Mikey please tell me what 10 horses you would use in a 10 horse $2.00 tri box? Please

Thank you in advance
Posted using a mobile device.
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#9
Posted: 5/5/2012 11:17:34 AM

Mikey!!!!!!!

 

Disagree on Rags, but good luck to you buddy.

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Posted: 5/5/2012 11:25:07 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by STEELERS in 07:

Mikey please tell me what 10 horses you would use in a 10 horse $2.00 tri box? Please

Thank you in advance

 

3,4,5,6,8,10,11,14,15,19

Good luck

 

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#11
Posted: 5/5/2012 11:25:52 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by djbrow:

Mikey!!!!!!!

 

Disagree on Rags, but good luck to you buddy.

 

Ahhhhhh....that's why they call it "paramutual" betting. GL DJ!

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#12
Posted: 5/5/2012 11:28:02 AM
good luck mikey
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Posted: 5/5/2012 11:28:32 AM
FYI....Leparoux won the first two races in good fashion and has the favorite in R3, Golden Ticket at 8-5 right now. Not sure if he's hot or just has thehorses, or both, but Union Rags players should pay attention.
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#14
Posted: 5/5/2012 11:31:02 AM
Fantastic work GEM and BODE


Good analysis on contenders too Good luck today

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#15
Posted: 5/5/2012 11:53:18 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mikeyp1:

FYI....Leparoux won the first two races in good fashion and has the favorite in R3, Golden Ticket at 8-5 right now. Not sure if he's hot or just has thehorses, or both, but Union Rags players should pay attention.


From what ive seen in the past derbys, the jockeys that are hot during the day do not do well in the main race, correct me if im wrong.............
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Posted: 5/5/2012 11:56:40 AM
PTB...yes, except the years Calvin won on Street Sense and Mine that Bird, his Friday and Saturday were stellar
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#17
Posted: 5/5/2012 12:57:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mikeyp1:

 

$15 ex key: 15/5,6,10,11,14

$8 ex key: 15/3,4,8,19

$5 ex wheel: 6,10,11,15/3,4,8,19

$4 tri wheel: 15/5,6,10,11,14/3,4,5,6,8,11,14,19

$1 tri wheel: 6,10,11,15/5,6,10,11,14,15/3,4,5,6,8,10,11,14,15,19

Consider playing these at long odds to place and show (10-1 or better): Alpha, Creative Cause Take Charge Indy, I’ll Have Another, Hansen.

 

GOOD LUCK TO ALL!

 

 

 

 



how much did that run you mikeyp?
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Posted: 5/5/2012 1:20:27 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by CrusCrnshw:



how much did that run you mikeyp?

 

Not sure yet as Haven't caluclated it all yet.  I am waiting to see how things progress here at the track, but my guess is that is the $600 range

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#19
Posted: 5/5/2012 1:33:05 PM

Mikey, you ever work the DD will pays into your wagering calculations based on the m/l odds in the 2nd half of it? I believe it works on most races with DD's.

 

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#20
Posted: 5/5/2012 1:43:08 PM
Love the 19 but his starting spot definitely scares me a bit...
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Posted: 5/5/2012 1:48:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gambler315:

Mikey, you ever work the DD will pays into your wagering calculations based on the m/l odds in the 2nd half of it? I believe it works on most races with DD's.

 

 

G315.....I don't, but I should. My problem is that I get stuck on one thing and forget about other opportunities. Good luck today.

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#22
Posted: 5/5/2012 2:18:47 PM

I understand your logic, however I've watched the race replays of Union Rags G1 races and I can tell you that the Florida Derby is not a measuring stick for this horses ability. If you reveiw that race, he was rated and lost positioning at the 1/4 pole. Not an excuse, but this guy is so big, if he doe'snt get his wheels movin' initially he has trouble in stride. The extra 1/8 mile will help his cause immensly, watch out in the backstretch! By the way if you are comparing Alpha to Gemologist, you may want to see how Union Rags destroyed Alpha by 6 lengths in the Champagne Stakes.

BOL Bro  

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#23
Posted: 5/5/2012 2:29:21 PM
I think I will be on Gemologist today as well as throw in a couple of exactas keying Gem and putting Union/Alpha/Sabercat underneath
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#24
Posted: 5/5/2012 2:37:29 PM
GL everyone, very difficult race but its a great day, cant get crazy with this many horses, $3 WPS Hansen, Union Rags. Everyone enjoy
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#25
Posted: 5/5/2012 5:55:12 PM

40 minutes to post

I have been to a lot of Derby's and I have not seen the crowd as 0 minutesjacked as they are today. Weather is perfect and the track looks like it was hand-cleaned!

Three new track records yesterday and two more track records here today, so watch for a garbage-pot-full of speed in the Derby!The dirt is blazing.

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