Messages

Forum Index : Covers Horse Racing : Messages Page 1 of 4  1 2 3 4  
Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: NOW WE GOT US A REAL HORSE RACE ON MAY 5
mikeyp1 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
mikeyp1
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Jan 2004
Posts: 12139
Location:
#1
Posted: 4/14/2012 9:10:55 PM

All of a sudden the waters run deep....look at this talent:

Bodemeister

Dullahan

Gemologist

Union Rags

Hansen

Went the Day Well

Secret Circle

Creative Cause

I'll Have Another

Daddy Nose Best

Alpha

Take Charge Indy

El Padrino

Daddy Long Legs

 

HOLY SCHNIKEES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

quote
Roused send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Roused
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 3160
Location:
#2
Posted: 4/14/2012 9:12:40 PM
Best Derby field ever. Wow, if you like someone you will get paid !
quote
Roused send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Roused
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 3160
Location:
#3
Posted: 4/14/2012 9:17:16 PM
The best horse, jockey, trainer might not win it. However, whoever rides the best race that day will get it. Man, its going to be a jocks race for sure.
quote
PrimeTimeBoys send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
PrimeTimeBoys
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 13343
Location: Pennsylvania
#4
Posted: 4/14/2012 9:40:08 PM
Definitely a wide open race...........there are no Smarty Jones or Big Brown in this race......although we do have an undefeated runner in Gemologist & will be under rated & at great odds come May 5th.
quote
Roused send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Roused
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 3160
Location:
#5
Posted: 4/14/2012 9:41:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

Definitely a wide open race...........there are no Smarty Jones or Big Brown in this race......although we do have an undefeated runner in Gemologist & will be under rated & at great odds come May 5th.


Please. SJ and BB were nice horses, but never ran against this type of competition. Bode could be a freak !
quote
PrimeTimeBoys send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
PrimeTimeBoys
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 13343
Location: Pennsylvania
#6
Posted: 4/14/2012 10:03:52 PM
Bodemeister's father came in 2nd behind Funny Cide with a hurt ankle........lets see if Bode can win one for his daddy.........
quote
Johnnyg7 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Johnnyg7
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 1755
Location: Pennsylvania
#7
Posted: 4/14/2012 10:13:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

Definitely a wide open race...........there are no Smarty Jones or Big Brown in this race......although we do have an undefeated runner in Gemologist & will be under rated & at great odds come May 5th.


I might have to disagree. If Bode's fig for today's race comes back like I think, he will indeed tower over the field like BB did. His final time was roughly 6 lengths better than Alternation in the race before. Considering Alternation was coming off back to back double digit Beyer's, Bode could get a huge number. The track was not very fast at Oaklawn today. I can see a 107-110 Beyer for Bode coming out of this race.

That would be 3 consecutive triple digit Beyer's. But then you have to factor in the bounce, 3 weeks rest, didn't run as a 2 year old, etc. People will poke holes at Bode and that will inflate his price, but I think he is the cream of this crop in terms of raw speed and talent.
quote
PrimeTimeBoys send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
PrimeTimeBoys
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 13343
Location: Pennsylvania
#8
Posted: 4/14/2012 10:19:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Johnnyg7:



I might have to disagree. If Bode's fig for today's race comes back like I think, he will indeed tower over the field like BB did. His final time was roughly 6 lengths better than Alternation in the race before. Considering Alternation was coming off back to back double digit Beyer's, Bode could get a huge number. The track was not very fast at Oaklawn today. I can see a 107-110 Beyer for Bode coming out of this race.

That would be 3 consecutive triple digit Beyer's. But then you have to factor in the bounce, 3 weeks rest, didn't run as a 2 year old, etc. People will poke holes at Bode and that will inflate his price, but I think he is the cream of this crop in terms of raw speed and talent.


I dont think he has enough foundation..........past couple years horses have been breaking trends like Funny Cide, Street Sense, etc..........maybe this year is the trend of Apollo since 1882 or something like that which has Bode winning..........
quote
PrimeTimeBoys send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
PrimeTimeBoys
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 13343
Location: Pennsylvania
#9
Posted: 4/14/2012 10:21:08 PM
^^^^^^^^^

The trend is no horse has won the derby since 1882 (I think) that hasnt raced as a 2 year old (Bode)
quote
diabolical send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Wynn Las Vegas |
diabolical
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 116
Location: Texas
#10
Posted: 4/14/2012 10:46:07 PM
  I will stick with Union Rags myself.  Bodemeister showed what a monster he is today but there is speed on top of speed for this years Derby.  I will take my chances with an awesome horse coming from off the pace.  The post position draw will also be crutial as well.  Bodemeister does scare the hell out of me because he is a big time bad behind but his performance in the AD should increase the price on UR.  I will wait for the draw but if UR draws well he is my horse.
quote
fatroll07 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
fatroll07
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 2664
Location:
#11
Posted: 4/14/2012 10:48:16 PM
I agree with Johnny but I believe the beyer is out at 105. I was thinking closer to 110 but 105 still towers over the rest of these. I think Dullahan could get a 102-105 beyer as well for his win, however that was on synthetic. Bode should be the chalk in the derby but because of trends and 3 weeks layoff he will probably be 7-2 or 4-1
quote
fatroll07 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
fatroll07
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 2664
Location:
#12
Posted: 4/14/2012 10:51:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by diabolical:

  I will stick with Union Rags myself.  Bodemeister showed what a monster he is today but there is speed on top of speed for this years Derby.  I will take my chances with an awesome horse coming from off the pace.  The post position draw will also be crutial as well.  Bodemeister does scare the hell out of me because he is a big time bad behind but his performance in the AD should increase the price on UR.  I will wait for the draw but if UR draws well he is my horse.


Care to elaborate about the speed on top of speed? Hansen, Bode and .... I mean I wouldn't say 23 and change and 46 and change is blazing speed for bode and hansen. There are a lot of years where there are horses coming into the derby who run 22, 45 type fractions. I have actually been trying to find who the speed is this year.
quote
PrimeTimeBoys send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
PrimeTimeBoys
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 13343
Location: Pennsylvania
#13
Posted: 4/14/2012 10:55:46 PM
Point Given was a better horse than Monarchos all day long but that day Monarchos was the derby winner.......the KD is about the horse thats coming into his own.......some years that horse is easier to find (Funny Cide, Monarchos, Street Sense, Super Saver) than other years (Charismatic, Giacomo, Mine That Bird)
quote
mikeyp1 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
mikeyp1
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Jan 2004
Posts: 12139
Location:
#14
Posted: 4/14/2012 11:48:19 PM

PTB....the "not racing as a two year old" is a knock on Bodemeister, but he might have a tad of freak in him.

Lest we forget that a lot of the Derby trends have been falling by the wayside, including Big Brown winning out of the 20 post (BTW.....Dennis of Cork finished third out of 16 in that race) and Street Sense winning the BC Juve and the Derby.

Speaking of Big Brown.....few pundits really talks about him as being among the greats. Is it because of the steroids/juicing allegations, or the fact that he hasn't had a single offspring whose done a thing on the tracki?

quote
angrybarber send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Sportsbook.com |
angrybarber
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 342
Location: Pennsylvania
#15
Posted: 4/14/2012 11:50:52 PM
FASTEST KENTUCKY DERBY FRACTIONS
Quarter Mile(1/4)
TimeHorse (Year)
:21 4/5Top Avenger (1981)
:22Bombay Duck (1975)
:22.25Songandaprayer (2001)
:22.28Spanish Chestnut (2005)
:22 1/5Kentucky Sherry (1968)
:22 1/5Barbs Delight (1967)
:22 1/5Groovy (1986)
:22.34Honour And Glory (1996)
:22 2/5Dominant (1916)
:22 2/5Olympia (1949)
:22 2/5Royal Shuck (1964)
:22 2/5Bold Forbes (1976)
:22 2/5Serena's Song (1995)
:22.47Hal's Hope (2000)

quote
angrybarber send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Sportsbook.com |
angrybarber
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 342
Location: Pennsylvania
#16
Posted: 4/14/2012 11:51:35 PM
Half Mile(1/2)
TimeHorse (Year)
:44.86Songandaprayer (2001)
:45 1/5Top Avenger (1981)
:45 1/5Groovy (1986)
:45.38Spanish Chestnut (2005)
:45 2/5Bombay Duck (1975)
:45 3/5Sensitive Prince (1978)
:45.75Old Trieste (1998)
:45 4/5For The Moment (1977)
:45 4/5Bold Forbes (1976)
:45 4/5Kentucky Sherry (1968)
:45 4/5Lee Town (1962)
:45 4/5Spend a Buck (1985)
:45.89Serena's Song (1995)
:45.99Hal's Hope (2000)

quote
angrybarber send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Sportsbook.com |
angrybarber
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 342
Location: Pennsylvania
#17
Posted: 4/14/2012 11:55:33 PM
hey fatroll there are not alot of years with 22 and 45 splits, do some research. 22 and 45 splits are complete suicide which is why in 2005 the race completely fell apart and Giacomo was able to close like he did. so i think what diabolical is trying to say is if bode and hansen go at it on the front end you wont see them at finish line. 
quote
angrybarber send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Sportsbook.com |
angrybarber
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 342
Location: Pennsylvania
#18
Posted: 4/14/2012 11:58:20 PM
if bodemeister breaks the 2 year old trend ill be shocked! Curlin couldnt do it and he is one of the best ever! bode is definitely for real and is going to win alot of races but like i said ill be shocked if hes the horse to break that trend
quote
PrimeTimeBoys send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
PrimeTimeBoys
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 13343
Location: Pennsylvania
#19
Posted: 4/15/2012 12:09:19 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by angrybarber:

if bodemeister breaks the 2 year old trend ill be shocked! Curlin couldnt do it and he is one of the best ever! bode is definitely for real and is going to win alot of races but like i said ill be shocked if hes the horse to break that trend


I agree.........I would think a stalker or closer would break the trend. A wire job is difficult to accomplish on the KD............Baffert has 4 horses this year in the KD, talk about being a great trainer & having 4 tries to win it.
quote
PrimeTimeBoys send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
PrimeTimeBoys
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 13343
Location: Pennsylvania
#20
Posted: 4/15/2012 12:11:20 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mikeyp1:

PTB....the "not racing as a two year old" is a knock on Bodemeister, but he might have a tad of freak in him.

Lest we forget that a lot of the Derby trends have been falling by the wayside, including Big Brown winning out of the 20 post (BTW.....Dennis of Cork finished third out of 16 in that race) and Street Sense winning the BC Juve and the Derby.

Speaking of Big Brown.....few pundits really talks about him as being among the greats. Is it because of the steroids/juicing allegations, or the fact that he hasn't had a single offspring whose done a thing on the tracki?



Knowing about Big Browns trainer, im not surprised he was juiced up. Imo, Smarty Jones was a way better horse than BB & you're right, he hasnt produced squat as far as offspring goes............
quote
angrybarber send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Sportsbook.com |
angrybarber
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 342
Location: Pennsylvania
#21
Posted: 4/15/2012 12:14:01 AM
do you think he will send all 4?? liaison and drill dont seem to be on the level. but i guess if he can send 4 then  why wouldnt he
quote
PrimeTimeBoys send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
PrimeTimeBoys
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 13343
Location: Pennsylvania
#22
Posted: 4/15/2012 12:29:53 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by angrybarber:

do you think he will send all 4?? liaison and drill dont seem to be on the level. but i guess if he can send 4 then  why wouldnt he


Lets see how Bode & Secret look after Saturdays race but if Baffert can run all 4, he will..........remember that year Pletcher ran like 7 horses in the derby & none of them showed up in the money...........if Baffert runs all 4 horses, they will take a lot of money which is great for everyone else not betting his horses.
quote
Johnnyg7 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Johnnyg7
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 1755
Location: Pennsylvania
#23
Posted: 4/15/2012 12:31:23 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by angrybarber:

if bodemeister breaks the 2 year old trend ill be shocked! Curlin couldnt do it and he is one of the best ever! bode is definitely for real and is going to win alot of races but like i said ill be shocked if hes the horse to break that trend


IMO You have to take a look at the PP's for Curlin to understand why he wasn't a huge threat in the KD as a non starting 2 year old. He came off the pace in the Ark Derby off fractions of of 47 4/5 and 1:12 3/5 to win. So when he was 9 lengths off the 1:11 in the KD, that was normal for him. His running style just didn't suggest he would emerge in a field of 20 horses with only 3 career starts. Bode, on the other hand just went 46 2/5 and 1:11 and 1/5 on his own in the Ark Derby. It will be much much much easier for Bode to win considering his pace. He will without question be within 3 lengths of the 1/2 mile pace in the KD. It is rare to have a deep closer win the KD just because of the traffic...and like fatroll said, there isn't blazing speed sprint speed out there.

Not to mention he has one of the best trainers in the country, a multiple Derby winning trainer. And whether he gets Smith or Bejarano, he will have an amazing jock in the irons. Bode is, on paper, the fastest horse in the race, and at 9/2 or 5/1 he will be a bargain for speed cappers in the Derby. Think Smarty, Big Brown, Barbaro.

I am not one to talk anyone off a horse ever... I love hearing different handicappers give their angles on a race. But win or lose, given the figs and running style, Bode will be an impossible toss in the exotics on May 5th. He is simply the fastest 3 year old running.


quote
Johnnyg7 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Johnnyg7
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 1755
Location: Pennsylvania
#24
Posted: 4/15/2012 12:37:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:



Knowing about Big Browns trainer, im not surprised he was juiced up. Imo, Smarty Jones was a way better horse than BB & you're right, he hasnt produced squat as far as offspring goes............


To be fair, Smarty has been a major disappointment as well, maybe more so than BB, since his first year at stud was only 2009... and hasn't had many hit the track yet.
quote
HolyBull send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
HolyBull
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 5898
Location: Massachusetts
#25
Posted: 4/16/2012 10:59:09 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Roused:

Best Derby field ever. Wow, if you like someone you will get paid !

Whoa, whoa, whoa.  Let's pump the brakes on that one my friend.  Unless I'm taking your statement out of context.

HB

 

quote
Forum Index : Covers Horse Racing : Messages Page 1 of 4  1 2 3 4  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.