Posted:
#1
Smaller plays here all at 0.50/0.50 units. Why? Tons of risk here with big fields and horses coming from all over. Taking some shots with some prices. Note I am using the odds I see at my source for playing and these could swing wildly but with big fields none of these should drop all that much. Not doing my normal full writeup although I am using the exact same process. Difference is quite frankly the PPs for the majority of these do not have the running line or comments on most of them. I have to read between the lines and compare different venues by country and all and all jump through a lot of hoops. Recency is tough to judge as well with many off of layoffs. you know they are training these horses but there isn't hard data on what they are doing with them. I'll list a few things I notice on each.
race 7
G1 Dubai Duty Free 3YO and Up 1 1/8 Miles Turf (3YO southern hemisphere bred)
7 WP
listed at 10/1 on the line. yeah I see the 4 he is razor sharp but I'll rate the Japan racing over Hong Kong any day and swing against him. pace, late speed, distance, stamina, and class for me here. huge field of 16 in a G1 on the green. Yikes! he has the tools and has run in some classy ones with zippy final times (I see that those distances have an asterisk in Japan).
race 8
G1 Dubai Sheema Classic 3YO and Up 1 1/2 Miles Turf
3 WP
20/1 on the line listed as of now at least. i know St. Nicholas Abbey is tough, could be very tough. he's also flopped at short prices before. I know Treasure Beach can be quite tough if he bounces back. taking a shot here based on rapidly improving pattern and I understand this is an enormous jump in class.
race 9
G1 Dubai World Cup 3YO and Up 1 1/4 Miles Tapeta Synth
2 WP
10/1 on the line. toughie here. don't like either American horse. So You Think a wildcard just as he was in the BC Classic. sure he could beat me no doubt about it. pace, stamina, pattern here for me. needs to keep fairly close and grind this out he can run all day but this is shorter than typical for him (interesting that they put him here).
good luck fellas. enjoy all the action today. i'll catch you next Saturday for sure some juicy cards at SA and NYRA.
race 7
G1 Dubai Duty Free 3YO and Up 1 1/8 Miles Turf (3YO southern hemisphere bred)
7 WP
listed at 10/1 on the line. yeah I see the 4 he is razor sharp but I'll rate the Japan racing over Hong Kong any day and swing against him. pace, late speed, distance, stamina, and class for me here. huge field of 16 in a G1 on the green. Yikes! he has the tools and has run in some classy ones with zippy final times (I see that those distances have an asterisk in Japan).
race 8
G1 Dubai Sheema Classic 3YO and Up 1 1/2 Miles Turf
3 WP
20/1 on the line listed as of now at least. i know St. Nicholas Abbey is tough, could be very tough. he's also flopped at short prices before. I know Treasure Beach can be quite tough if he bounces back. taking a shot here based on rapidly improving pattern and I understand this is an enormous jump in class.
race 9
G1 Dubai World Cup 3YO and Up 1 1/4 Miles Tapeta Synth
2 WP
10/1 on the line. toughie here. don't like either American horse. So You Think a wildcard just as he was in the BC Classic. sure he could beat me no doubt about it. pace, stamina, pattern here for me. needs to keep fairly close and grind this out he can run all day but this is shorter than typical for him (interesting that they put him here).
good luck fellas. enjoy all the action today. i'll catch you next Saturday for sure some juicy cards at SA and NYRA.
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