Dubai World Cup Notes

Dubai World Cup Meeting 2012 and March 30^th Betting Notes

The opening day of the UK flat turf season is generally a day for bettors to tread very carefully, and with this year's curtain-raiser at Doncaster looking particularly difficult to unravel coming up with anything solid in terms of betting opportunities is far from straightforward and only Start Right and Mull of Killough in the 3.15 Doncaster catches the eye. Bet365 pays 5 places and both are worth taking on EW at their prices.

But there is a massive meeting abroad in Dubai where we have a very tough but much more fascinating meeting to get our teeth in as I’m not enamoured with Doncaster. I’m not the biggest fan of the track of Meydan and much preferred the more neutral track of Nad Al Sheba from years gone by. The problem is the short straight that makes Ascot’s straight look the length of the M6! That means more rough races as jockeys scrimmage for position.

That means like plenty of international tracks in America and Hong Kong we don’t often see the best horse in the race win as it is the best drawn horses that often wins and your chances of finding a winner or places increases if your selection races prominently or at the least is not victim to any exaggerated Jamie Spencer style ride!

However I think this renewal in the big race could potentially see a much stronger pace than previous renewals since the Meydan switch. It’s just that you have a few horses here that will want to get on with things because the Tapeta surface can be gruelling in the late afternoon heat and that makes it harder for horses to come from behind.

If you prefer to kick back and do away with form, strategies and watch then take note of the paddocks before the last two races. It often pays to be with literally the biggest and strongest horses as I mentioned earlier the rough nature of the races is a by product of the course itself meaning with all the bumps and knocks the likelihood is that: only the strong survive.

2.10 Godolphin Mile
Interesting race in store with only a handful of contenders with the top rated African Story an obvious pick. However I’m just not convinced by the official ratings given to the likes of African Story (117), Shamalgan (115), Do it All (116) and Viscount Nelson (116) considering the one horse in the field with a Group/Grade One win albeit in an American handicap to their name is Western Aristocrat and he is rated just 113! He is a versatile horse as to regards his style of running and he is my value pick for the race as the only Group 1 winner in the field. Whilst I’m not Ryan Moore’s biggest fan, I should think even an adequate ride will see him go close and as long as he is not given an exaggerated hold up ride he should be thereabouts and his price is too good to turn down with African Story making the market and I’m always keen to take on what I perceive a weak favourite.

Western Aristocrat 7/1 1pt EW Bet365

2.45 Dubai Gold Cup

It’s a crying shame Kasbah Bliss races here instead of the World Hurdle at Cheltenham vs Big Bucks but understandably so looking at the gulf in prize money between the two races (£387k vs £148k). Whatever the arguments it’s the owner that pays the bill and they have chosen to come here. However I’m not convinced he is as good as he once was especially at 10 years of age and he is not getting any younger. Strictly on the book and on all known evidence, this should be fought out between the two favourites from Godolphin in Fox Hunt and Opinion Poll.

Of the duo it is Opinion Poll who is the highest rated at 116 but he holds no secret from the public in regards his ability and what you see is what you get. The one improver is Fox Hunt who has improved over a stone in the last year and could still be improving being raised to 115, 1lb behind his stable-mate. He still has the scope to improve even more now stepped up to two miles and I wouldn’t like to split the Godolphin duo. There is one interesting thing to note as Frankie Dettori apparently made his choice immediately after their last meeting when he rode Fox Hunt to win and told Saeed bin Suroor he would be riding Opinion Poll. We could interpret that as stamina doubts but I wouldn’t be too quick to side with Opinion Poll on the basis of Frankie’s whims!

There are plenty of potential unexposed horses given the new trip but there is always a chance that something like Joshua Tree could improve for the step up in trip having shown very useful form at 12f and I think he is the best of the rest looking for a value play. In the race itself, I’m more likely to go for Fox Hunt despite Frankie Dettori choosing Opinion Poll as I think on the balance of form both holds equal chances yet one is perceived the number one choice on account of being Frankie’s choice and there is a little value to be had in Fox Hunt as an EW bet to nothing with a strong chance of winning.

Fox Hunt 7/2 1pt EW Bet365

Opinion Poll / Fox Hunt Straight Forecast 0.25pt win

4.00 Al Quoz Sprint

I’m not too keen on Sprint races as a rule but I think if there’s a bet to be had here it’s the Hong Kong raider Joy and Fun who has course form and looks as good as ever that would carry my money. I’d be more confident over a furlong further but even over 5f I think he has definite place prospects with a very good chance of winning. However given his style of racing you would need plenty of luck in running and the very high probability that this trip may prove just too sharp for him but he is still worth a small play as he will be coming home fast and furious. The question is: Will the race be over by the time he gets going?

Ortensia has been given a massive vote of confidence from a guy I have a huge amount of respect for. He's been very convincing in his case for her and I'm now on board! Choo Choo! 10/1! Nothing mad but well worth a punt!
 

Joy and Fun 8/1 0.25pt EW Paddy Power

Ortensia 10/1 1pt EW Betfred

4.35 Dubai Golden Shaheen
Absolutely mouth-watering clash here between the Aussie sensation Sepoy and veteran sprinter Rocket Man, the winner of this race last year and amongst the top 5 sprinters in the world. In years past we never really got the chance to see the likes of superstar sprinters Sacred Kingdom and Star Witness race outside their comfort zone and it’s just a shame Black Caviar does not line up here. Lucky Nine has an outside chance too but the likelihood according to the official ratings is that the top two in the market are the horses to concentrate on rated at least 5lb clear of the field. So how to split the duo?

On official ratings Rocket Man is rated 2lb better at 125 vs 123 but on RPR Sepoy is given a huge mark of 143 against Rocket Man’s mark of 131! Not to denigrate RPRs but this is the same handicapper who rated Sizing Europe’s trial performances in the 170s! But still this discrepancy should be noted and whilst Rocket Man is the favourite and defending champion he is also one year older at 7 against a horse who does not turn 4 until September and is coming off a long season.

Last year three year olds dominated the stakes races worldwide with the weight allowance in their favour. However outside the sprinting division it must be said the older division were full of card fillers like Gio Ponti, Workforce and Await the Dawn rather then genuine top class horses in the manner of Pilsudski, Swain and Singspiel. Since last year’s win, Rocket Man hasn’t raced in the Hong Kong colony regularly preferring to try his hand in Singapore in the weaker races at Kranji beating the likes of Better be the One (rated 115!) and Éclair Fastpass (well held by Starspangledbanner: Group One winner for Ballydoyle) and on his forays into Group One company in the last 8 months in Japan and Hong Kong he has been well held suggesting he has declined. For me, that kind of form suggests vulnerability and he is a false favourite (9/4 at the time of writing) in my view and he should be taken on.

Going back to the live outsider mentioned earlier, Lucky Nine has the form in the book and arguably showed better recent form though there is a suspicion the trip is a touch short. However at his price of 9/1 I think he is well worth a punt as I think he should finish in the top 3 despite his wide draw ahead of the likes of Soul (apparently only 85% fit last time out!) and the Krypton Factor who looks nothing special and are well held on form. The American raider The Factor is interesting but he is a dirt horse who still has to prove he can act on the synthetic surface whilst fellow American horse Giant Ryan was exposed at the very highest level at the Breeders Cup and even though he won a Grade One prior to that Breeders Cup run, he was a longshot in that race suggesting he lacks the residual class to enable punters to be confident of a run.

Sepoy is a dark horse as he has been well hyped in Australia as the second coming since.. well Black Caviar and So You Think! As a three year old, he obviously has a theoretical scope for improvement on this surface and he has obvious claims but you’d be betting in the dark on his chances as we really do not know how good he really is. His form in beating Foxwedge who has links with Haylist and Black Caviar look very good but on balance of overall form he has much to prove and there is simply no singular piece of form to link other runners which makes it fascinating. The question is: at his price is worth the risk?

This is truly a fascinating race and not as clear-cut as the ratings would have you believe in my view. I think the favourite has to be taken on and I’m opposing him with Lucky Nine rather then Sepoy. The draw is a worry for Lucky Nine but I firmly believe his form entitles him to be thereabouts. Sepoy is a tougher pass then Rocket Man but I don’t like betting on unknowns with doubts surrounding the validity of his form as well as the suitability of the surface itself. However there are indications he is indeed a high-class colt given the dominance of Australian bred sprinters in recent years but I’m happy enough with Lucky Nine even with his wide draw. Sepoy could be worth an interest nearer the time of the race but would want to see how I'm doing in terms of reading international raceform before throwing more money at something like a lottery.. oops.. meant sprint!

Lucky Nine 0.75pt EW 9/1 Bet365

5.25 Dubai Duty Free
This looked a wide-open race in my view until the draw which just about rules out several fancied horses from my initial shortlist. Make no mistake it is a massive factor and I’m inclined to rule out the wider drawn horses especially old favourite and dodgepot Wigmore Hall (thank god!). At first glance Xtension, Ambitious Dragon and California Memory hold the key to this race as they all have close form links to each other with Ambitious Dragon easily holding the other pair in previous runs and he looks a deserving favourite on that piece of form as well as having close form links to the likes of Byword and Cirrus Des Aigles.

The likes of Rajasman, Delegator, Musir, Await the Dawn and Mutahadee all have legitimate chances too and they all have pieces of form that whilst not quite linked as cosily as the above horses, it suggest they are all a touch inconsistent with perhaps Musir holding the best chance of this group of horses but I do not like his hold up style and want to see him being more prominently. But it all looks a bit trappy and Ambitious Dragon must still prove his effectiveness on the course having never raced outside Hong Kong.

As a consequence, I’m going to take a chance on the Japanese horse Dark Shadow who has very useful form ties with the likes of Buena Vista, Eishin Flash and Hiruno D’Amour and whilst not a consistent winner, he has been very consistent in finishing in the money and unlike Ambitious Dragon he has shown he can handle a left handed course and I expect him to be ridden more prominently then that rival which is always an advantage at Meydan. With the rest of the field seemingly unable to really separate themselves from each other in a convincing manner or not quite good enough I’m placing my faith in the Japanese line of form that has been upheld proudly by the likes of El Condor Pasa, Deep Impact, Victoire Pisa, Transcend and Nakayama Festa on the international stage.

Dark Shadow 7/1 1pt EW Skybet

6.00 Dubai Sheema Classic

The European raiders once again have the best form in the race with Cirrus Des Aigles, St Nicholas Abbey and Treasure Beach holding all the aces. The likes of Bold Silvano, Beaten Up, Cavalryman, Jakkalberry, Mahooba, Shimraan and Songcraft look comfortably well held by the leading trio.

The question is which of the leading trio will be ready to win? On fitness and preparation Cirrus Des Aigles has the best profile with a recent run under his belt whilst he also has the best form of the trio too with his Champion Stakes win over So You Think and Snow Fairy the best singular piece of form in the field. He has had his warm up on the all weather and has experience on the surface. All in all, everything is in place for a big run and the question is whether he is good enough. The formbook says he is!

St Nicholas Abbey’s Breeders Cup win was not that impressive given the strength of his opposition that day with only Sarafina as the main danger but he can only beat what is put in front of him and he did it well. Sarafina looks to be over-rated with the benefit of hindsight and whilst she did beat Cirrus Des Aigles last summer I’m not convinced overall and she has the feel of a Sagamix about her: unraced at two and value for a season and a half before a descent to mediocrity. His other form lines suggest he is not quite King George or L’Arc de Triomphe class but to be fair I don’t think there is a runner in field capable of winning either races and he holds a great chance despite my misgivings. He also has the handicap (in my view) of his jockey to overcome as the trainer’s son is in his first season without his normal 3lb claim. He is NOT a prolific winner of handicap races and I get the feeling he is similar to Sam Waley-Cohen on Long Run: if the horse is good enough, any jockey can win but what happens if St. Nicholas Abbey require a peach of a ride to win? I wouldn't be confident.

Treasure Beach has never been the Ballydoyle first string until his Irish Derby triumph in beating Seville and Carlton House. He then proved himself a useful colt in following up in America. However he has since flopped in the L’Arc De Triomphe and in the Canadian International. He’s has had quite a tough campaign in comparison with plenty of his stable-mates and the question is whether he has trained on. I would think he has and on pieces of form last year he deserves to be right up there with top two of Cirrus Des Aigles and St. Nicholas Abbey and I would not be surprised if he wins here in receipt of a small weight allowance.

This is a real tricky heat and I do not have a strong opinion on this race. All three main contenders could win and I’d be surprised if any of the field manages a shock win. Of the rest Beaten Up is interesting but I’m surprised he is as short as 4/1 on what he has actually achieved. I disagree with his rating of 119 as he has only won a Group 3 and has never beaten a Group 2 winner much lest a Group 1 winner! Whilst he is very much an unknown quantity and could well prove in time a top class animal, I’d want much more then 4/1 and that is a shocking price in my view. Consequentially I’d much rather bet Treasure Beach at a standout 9/1 EW with Coral as I think Cirrus Des Aigles and St Nicholas Abbey are not that much further in front of Treasure Beach as their ratings and prices indicate. Of the two favourites I’d be more inclined to lean towards the French raider but I’m quite content for now to have a small bet on Treasure Beach for a bit of fun.

Treasure Beach 9/1 0.5pt EW Coral

6.40 Dubai World Cup
The Dubai World Cup is not a prestigious race to rank alongside the King George or the Prix de L’Arc De Triomphe as there is no long history behind it but the prize money is not to be sniffed at and we have a very international field here from all corners of the globe. Before Victoire Pisa last year I had never really gone close in this with previous obvious choices in Cigar, Dubai Millennium and Curlin a turn off at their prohibitive short prices. I can’t quite remember the exact reasons for his selection but at 12/1 his price was certainly a factor as well as the wide-open nature of the race that saw Twice Over a 2/1 favourite!

Most of you will know I don’t rate Twice Over as a truly elite Group One performer and he was an extremely easy pass in my point of view. This year’s favourite is the Ballydoyle horse So You Think who has a very good chance on balance of his overall form. Ignore the hype from his Aussie days and this horse has top class form far better then last year’s favourite Twice Over ever demonstrated. This time he holds plenty of his rivals on pieces of form like Zazou the German raider who for me is plenty short enough at 10/1 on the entire balance of his form. Silver Pond is another who doesn’t quite look good enough as well as being held by So You Think and Planteur.

I simply think So You Think is the best horse (and certainly amongst the strongest and biggest physically) in the race but the presence of Joseph O’Brien holds me back from being confident and I prefer to look elsewhere. The rest of the field looks competitive in comparison to last year’s field with two very decent American horses in Royal Delta and Game On Dude showing arguably better form then the likes of Gio Ponti, Richard’s Kid and Fly Down could ever muster. Whilst there may be a slight preference for the Bob Baffert raider who is ultra tough, there has to be doubt as how he will take to the synthetic surface away from the dirt tracks of America.

The Japanese challenger Eishin Flash would’ve been more interesting in the Sheema Classic over an extra 2F whilst Smart Falcon could still literally be anything given he has been racing predominantly at Listed level and Group 3 level but on his recent Group 1 start, he won by a nose at 1/100 (according to the Racing Post!)!!! But asides from last year’s success, Japanese dirt horses have struggled transitioning to Dubai in the past. Last year was an exception and the second placed Transcend is very good and has every chance but I get the feeling his style of running in making all will only leave him vulnerable once again and in any case he is drawn wide and he will have competition for the lead. Of the Japanese raiders it is Smart Falcon, the shortest in the betting that intrigue as I can’t quite understand why when he was winning Group 3 races in Japan, he was then stepped DOWN in class at Listed level avoiding the big main track of Nakayama. Can he win? Of course but his price is nothing to get excited about.

If the stars aligned and the race panned out well it wouldn't surprise me to see a Goldolphin runner win this race. Monterosso could run well again at a price and Al Zarooni looks to have him bang on for a nice run again but I just can’t help but think along with Mendip, Prince Bishop and Capponi, they are vulnerable to something that is truly Group 1 class on the biggest European stage of all.

Which leaves us the other European invader in Planteur, a Group One winner in France who remains a horse with untapped potential. He has finished second in a French Derby and has been campaigned over a variety of trips at the highest level in Europe without disgracing himself. The fact he has been well fancied every time suggests he has the residual class that the likes of Silver Pond and Zazou lack. The switch of trainer to the under-rated Marco Botti is a bonus as well as his prominent style of racing. Put simply: if he is anywhere near his best he has the beating of most of these and at his price he is the pick.

In conclusion, this is a truly international race and two horses stand out here on form in So You Think and Planteur. Smart Falcon is a dangerous horse to dismiss but on the evidence it is hard to advocate backing a horse who could be anything at his short-ish price as you’d be essentially backing him on the form line that saw him beat Transcend, a 40/1 shot last year and 14/1 this time around by one length. He had also reported lost 20kg in weight on his flight over and given he never really traveled far in his home country of Japan, who knows how much that trip and the loss of weight will have taken out of him.

So You Think would’ve been a confident selection as he has a good draw but questions arise on the issue of his jockey. He is drawn 4 and whilst not essential for him to lead, he has the versatility to be ridden any way Coolmore wants him to be ridden. With Smart Falcon next door and a possibility to try and make all he should have a nice lead. However another view is that the pace could be outside with Game on Dude and Transcend both drawn on the outside and they could squeeze the runners drawn near the rails meaning the race will likely descend into a rough race and there’s no way we can be confident of telling how the race will pan out.