Posted:
#1
PPS are up for free for this one at drf.com. this horse should be between 4/1 to 7/1. chad/javier have a candy ride making it's 2nd start and chad has one he is bumping up in class. the 1 and the 3 have recency out of the same race and both ran ok so they will get played. the 7 has been better routing and should get some play. eight horse field so in theory this horse is a decent price but i can't control that. 0.75/0.75 units
race 3
Maiden Special Weight F&M 4YO and Up 1 Mile Turf
4 WP
Recency - She doesn't have recency and is off a layoff from last March where she made the debut at GP. She does have six straight recorded drills spaced out fairly nicely and the drill two back was on the green. She comes back going two turns after tiring in debut going two turns. The drills and confident placement back make me feel she is pretty well fit. Though I must say I don't think she has an edge on recency but looking at the others none appear to be razor sharp coming in and everything is relative.
Late Speed - was a half length of the lead in the debut and got tired late in the lane. I don't know what her late speed will be here. I do know that none of the others have shown strong late speed yet relative to today's competition. looks like the 3 runs evenly late. the 6 passed a few late last out but that was against maiden claimers. the 7 looks like she runs evenly late. have to project on all the others.
Pattern - I like the pattern. This is a nondescript group of gals on a Friday with question marks. The 4 ran ok in the debut showing good pace and getting tired. Maybe it was a breathing issue or something else and she went to the sidelines. Good sign she comes right back into a two turn race at the same class level and has recorded solid set of drills. I wouldn't like this pattern against better competition but I like that she is "fresh" and has shown speed/pace. Not a bad jockey upgrade either.
Speed/Pace/Stamina/Class/Distance/Surface - Needs to answer it today on distance and stamina. Could have nice speed/pace and be in position to lead them or sit a stalk and pounce. Nothing on the others jumps out at me as a legit edge. So, again everything is relative she only needs to beat these she isn't in the BC Turf Mile.
J/T Combo - Attfield is 0/9 at GP but has 4 place finishers. He is 20% overall, 17% off a +180 day break, 19% with maidens in 2nd start, and 16% on turf. Attfield/Velazquez click at 22% over the last twelve months. Johnny V is hitting at 22% at GP and decides to take this one off a long layoff. Not a real edge here but the J/T combo is solid.
Breeding - Grand Slam is fairly solid on turf and Mom was 2/4 on the green but only for modest cash. One of the half sibs banked over a million but mostly dirt. Ehhhh, nothing special. None of the others jump out at me. This is a race where I feel breeding IS relevant but I don't see anyone with a clear cut edge.
Maybe take them all the way or sit a stalk and pounce? Gotta overcome the layoff and show better stamina. far, far from a cinch but if she hangs around the 6/1 ML and comes back firing maybe she is right there on the wire at a decent price.
Good luck
race 3
Maiden Special Weight F&M 4YO and Up 1 Mile Turf
4 WP
Recency - She doesn't have recency and is off a layoff from last March where she made the debut at GP. She does have six straight recorded drills spaced out fairly nicely and the drill two back was on the green. She comes back going two turns after tiring in debut going two turns. The drills and confident placement back make me feel she is pretty well fit. Though I must say I don't think she has an edge on recency but looking at the others none appear to be razor sharp coming in and everything is relative.
Late Speed - was a half length of the lead in the debut and got tired late in the lane. I don't know what her late speed will be here. I do know that none of the others have shown strong late speed yet relative to today's competition. looks like the 3 runs evenly late. the 6 passed a few late last out but that was against maiden claimers. the 7 looks like she runs evenly late. have to project on all the others.
Pattern - I like the pattern. This is a nondescript group of gals on a Friday with question marks. The 4 ran ok in the debut showing good pace and getting tired. Maybe it was a breathing issue or something else and she went to the sidelines. Good sign she comes right back into a two turn race at the same class level and has recorded solid set of drills. I wouldn't like this pattern against better competition but I like that she is "fresh" and has shown speed/pace. Not a bad jockey upgrade either.
Speed/Pace/Stamina/Class/Distance/Surface - Needs to answer it today on distance and stamina. Could have nice speed/pace and be in position to lead them or sit a stalk and pounce. Nothing on the others jumps out at me as a legit edge. So, again everything is relative she only needs to beat these she isn't in the BC Turf Mile.
J/T Combo - Attfield is 0/9 at GP but has 4 place finishers. He is 20% overall, 17% off a +180 day break, 19% with maidens in 2nd start, and 16% on turf. Attfield/Velazquez click at 22% over the last twelve months. Johnny V is hitting at 22% at GP and decides to take this one off a long layoff. Not a real edge here but the J/T combo is solid.
Breeding - Grand Slam is fairly solid on turf and Mom was 2/4 on the green but only for modest cash. One of the half sibs banked over a million but mostly dirt. Ehhhh, nothing special. None of the others jump out at me. This is a race where I feel breeding IS relevant but I don't see anyone with a clear cut edge.
Maybe take them all the way or sit a stalk and pounce? Gotta overcome the layoff and show better stamina. far, far from a cinch but if she hangs around the 6/1 ML and comes back firing maybe she is right there on the wire at a decent price.
Good luck
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