Posted:
#1
just one today boys. i see this as pretty wide open fellas. this is a G2 at The Great Race Place in Arcadia, CA and they ain't giving these away for free last time I checked. only the 2 and 5 would shock me. this horse could be anywhere from 5/2ish to 5/1. the 6, 3, 8, and 4 should get plenty of action.
race 8
G2 La Canada Fillies 4YO 1 1/16 Miles Dirt
7 WP
1.00/1.00 unit spread for this one
Recency - No real edge here as they all appear physically fit and healthy and no red flags coming off of layoffs with major question marks. The quality of this gal's recency is high according to me with two straight wins. She is also drilling like clockwork with five, yes five, straight movements since that race on 12/14 in Inglewood. Three of those spins were 6 panel moves. She really should be fit and healthy and capable of putting in a solid effort today.
Late Speed - late speed stacks up well here after she came back from the beach she has shown strong late movement to the wire in her last two and they were at ten furlongs and 8.5 furlongs. Others have strong late speed as well. No major edge here but not a negative either. I like that late movement and energy two back when they went in 1:09 and change and finished in 1:59 and change (that was turf I realize that).
Pattern - I like this pattern. Beyer speed figures are improving and she is moving right up the class ladder and now into a G2. generally Jerry means business when he sends them up in class because he won't hesitate to drop them to steal the cash. I do not know for sure if she is good enough to win but the pattern is strong.
Speed/Pace/Stamina/Class/Distance/Surface - Measures up quite well on stamina and distance. Slightly behind the favs on Beyer speed figs. She won't set the pace but she shouldn't be a mile back praying for a miracle late in the lane. Needs to answer the bell on class and surface.
J/T Combo - Ole Jerry Hollendorfer is ice, ice cold in Arcadia. But, 5 of 22 have run 2nd and boys this is Hollendorfer the man knows how to train a thoroughbred. 22% in routes, 26% on dirt, and 22% off 31-60 day break. Bejarano is well Bejarano. Best in the business in my book. But, there are other top combos here so no major edge. never hurts to have Raffy calling the shots.
Breeding - these gals are all 4YO now so the cat is pretty much out of the bag on breeding. No edge here or not really a factor in my view.
I feel she will come with a solid effort. BUT, it is entirely possible that a couple of others really pop up as well and she may not be good enough. This should be a high quality race.
Good luck
race 8
G2 La Canada Fillies 4YO 1 1/16 Miles Dirt
7 WP
1.00/1.00 unit spread for this one
Recency - No real edge here as they all appear physically fit and healthy and no red flags coming off of layoffs with major question marks. The quality of this gal's recency is high according to me with two straight wins. She is also drilling like clockwork with five, yes five, straight movements since that race on 12/14 in Inglewood. Three of those spins were 6 panel moves. She really should be fit and healthy and capable of putting in a solid effort today.
Late Speed - late speed stacks up well here after she came back from the beach she has shown strong late movement to the wire in her last two and they were at ten furlongs and 8.5 furlongs. Others have strong late speed as well. No major edge here but not a negative either. I like that late movement and energy two back when they went in 1:09 and change and finished in 1:59 and change (that was turf I realize that).
Pattern - I like this pattern. Beyer speed figures are improving and she is moving right up the class ladder and now into a G2. generally Jerry means business when he sends them up in class because he won't hesitate to drop them to steal the cash. I do not know for sure if she is good enough to win but the pattern is strong.
Speed/Pace/Stamina/Class/Distance/Surface - Measures up quite well on stamina and distance. Slightly behind the favs on Beyer speed figs. She won't set the pace but she shouldn't be a mile back praying for a miracle late in the lane. Needs to answer the bell on class and surface.
J/T Combo - Ole Jerry Hollendorfer is ice, ice cold in Arcadia. But, 5 of 22 have run 2nd and boys this is Hollendorfer the man knows how to train a thoroughbred. 22% in routes, 26% on dirt, and 22% off 31-60 day break. Bejarano is well Bejarano. Best in the business in my book. But, there are other top combos here so no major edge. never hurts to have Raffy calling the shots.
Breeding - these gals are all 4YO now so the cat is pretty much out of the bag on breeding. No edge here or not really a factor in my view.
I feel she will come with a solid effort. BUT, it is entirely possible that a couple of others really pop up as well and she may not be good enough. This should be a high quality race.
Good luck
0
really surprised with her stamina that she lost by that much
So, not too sure about her being "much the best". 
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