Whoever decides to score more points. No kidding right?
In this matchup, we have the most efficient offense in Michigan who has put up a >1.00 points per possession in every NCAA tournament game this year. Their last loss came to a Wisconsin team who held them to 0.88 ppp in a game that featured 67 possessions. Oddly enough, Michigan has played three of their best defensive games in the NCAA tournament with those coming against South Dakota State, VCU and Florida. Their defense had a bit of a lapse against Kansas, who applied a heavy amount of pressure offensively. Michigan only played 6 players in that match up so perhaps fatigue had something to do with the poor defensive effort over the course of 40 minutes.
On the other side of the court, Louisville brings in arguably the most dynamic backcourt in the NCAA. A team whose last loss was a game that featured 5 overtimes and basically every player on both teams fouling out. Louisville has held every team this NCAA tournament to less than 1.00 ppp except for their previous game against Wichita St.
Basketball is all about match ups and these two teams have some very distinct differences in regards to personnel.
Michigan Starters:
Trey Burke 6’0
Nick Stauskas 6’6
Tim Hardaway 6’6
Mith McGary 6’10
Glenn Robinson 6’6
Reserves – Albrecht 5’10, Morgan 6’8,Horford 6’10, Lavert 6’5
Louisville Starters:
Peyton Siva 6’0
Russ Smith 6’0
Chane Behanen 6’6
Gorgui Deng 6’11
Wayne Blackshear 6’5
Reserves: Luke Hancock 6’6, Montrez Harrell 6’8, Stephan Van Treese 6’9, Henderson 6’2
I look at these rosters and I see that Michigan is going to have a size advantage at one of the positions. Unfortunately this will be Nick Stauskas with the advantage and he is mainly an outside threat. He can easily be covered by Siva or Smith without the risk of them being posted up. Obviously whichever guard for Louisville doesn’t guard Stauska will guard Burke. The other three positions match up fairly equally. Behanen, Blackshear and Hancock will battle against Hardaway, Robinson and possibly a few minutes of Lavert. Robinson has not been much of an offensive threat shooting a dismal 3/14 from the field and 4/15 from 3 in his last 2 games. Deng and McGary will battle in the post and foul trouble could be an issue here. Both teams have depth off the bench with Michigan bringing in Horford and Louisville Van Treese. Neither backup center brings the same level of play but Horford has a bit more athleticism. Van Treese may prove to be a more useful defender against McGary if Deng does in fact get into foul trouble.
If Michigan decides to cover Siva or Smith with Stauskas they will be liable to penetration off the dribble. This is Louisville’s strong point and Michigan could counter by using a more athletic Lavert or smaller Albrecht to match up with the quick and aggressive Louisville guards. Lavert probably stands a better chance than Albrecht defensively and I could see him getting a heavier dose of minutes.
The cross matchup here is tough for Michigan and I feel it will be tough for them to stop the guard that Burke isn’t defending. The Michigan offense was absent in the second half of their last game, scoring 25 points, and I would hate to see that roll over into the next game. Louisville should be able to match up well defensively versus Michigan who utilizes the pick and roll and quick transition offense to generate points. Louisville is much the same, and I think the Louisville bigs will be accustom to handling the pick and roll due to defending it in practice every day. The one advantage that Michigan does have is from behind the 3 point line. With three guys shooting right around 40% this is a large advantage of the poor 3 point shooting that Louisville has. Louisville allows opponents to take 33% of their attempts from 3, so there is no question that Michigan is going to get some 3 pointers up. Those shots either lead to offensive rebounds or run-outs for Louisville. Transition basketball is going to be a huge part of this game. If you watched Michigan play Florida, they basically got the defensive rebound and ran up the floor for a layup. It was pure comedy watching the Gators get stuck in quick sand on the offensive end while Michigan went the other way for a bucket. Louisville plays much the same. They attack relentlessly and look to push in transition. Even with the disgusting start to Louisville’s game against Wichita State, they still ended up scoring 72 points in 35 minutes (went scoreless for the first 5 minutes). That is 2.05 points per minute against a team that boasts a better defensive team than Michigan.
I think what we have in this game is offense heavy match up where transition offense will be a common theme to this game. Both teams have players that can create for themselves and teammates, and fortunately these players have the ball in their hands for a majority of each team’s possessions. I think we see a great pace and flow to this game once the early jitters wear off.
The side is tough to play due to the make or miss essence of a Championship game. Michigan holds the 3 point advantage, both teams have dominant inside players and dynamic guards. If Michigan goes 1/20 from three then the over is likely dead and Louisville will cover. If Michigan hits 10/20 from 3 then the over will be alive and Michigan likely has a chance to cover. Either way, I expect 40 minutes of insane basketball. If Louisville presses Michigan this should result in points for one side or the other. If the refs call it tight like they did for the Final Four games, we will see a free throw fest which bodes well for the over. Louisville has been playing in a match-up zone but I think this will be tough to use against Michigan who just faced a similar defense but one with much more length in Syracuse. If Louisville uses the match up zone, I would think Michigan will be able to utilize Burkes penetration to get open 3 point shots by spacing the floor efficiently. Offense kills, and I think we see quick buckets in this one.
This will be great game to observe and I hope you all enjoy the championship.
Michigan vs. Louisville OVER 139 (-105)
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