Cal reasoning: -Syracuse has no way to efficiently score if they can't get out in transition. I expect a great coach like Mike Montgomery to have noticed that and put a big emphasis on stopping MCW and Triche from running, while Allen Crabbe should draw the defensive assignment on James Southerland. His size and length helps, but if he can limit what Southerland does I truly don't know how the 'Cuse wins here. On offense, Cal will have the opportunity to shoot a bunch of jumpers against the 2-3 zone and I like either Crabbe or Justin Cobbs to stroke a few while the normally feeble Cal frontline won't have to worry about being pushed around inside. My only fear is the beef of freshman Dejuan Coleman getting minutes, but he was not used in the Big East tournament when really needed against Pitt so I don't expect him to be in there much if at all. The game out west in San Jose kills the Orange nation while there were a lot of Cal fans there for the UNLV game and I expect them to be there in flocks today.
Wichita reasoning: -Gonzaga has all the pressure in the world as the 1-seed and to be the first team to get past the sweet 16 while all other fans will root against them. They also have to deal with Carl Hall killing the offensive boards and just a tough team that will push them around all night long. The Zags are one of the deepest teams in the country and that's part of why they are a top-seed, but Pangos is tiny and will struggle to deal with the size/speed combination of Malcolm Armstead. GU usually has great wing defenders, but Wichita doesn't rely on outside scoring a ton. This is a game that will be made into a war on the interior by the Shockers and I think they could take Gonzaga out (hope not for my bracket though)
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Cal reasoning: -Syracuse has no way to efficiently score if they can't get out in transition. I expect a great coach like Mike Montgomery to have noticed that and put a big emphasis on stopping MCW and Triche from running, while Allen Crabbe should draw the defensive assignment on James Southerland. His size and length helps, but if he can limit what Southerland does I truly don't know how the 'Cuse wins here. On offense, Cal will have the opportunity to shoot a bunch of jumpers against the 2-3 zone and I like either Crabbe or Justin Cobbs to stroke a few while the normally feeble Cal frontline won't have to worry about being pushed around inside. My only fear is the beef of freshman Dejuan Coleman getting minutes, but he was not used in the Big East tournament when really needed against Pitt so I don't expect him to be in there much if at all. The game out west in San Jose kills the Orange nation while there were a lot of Cal fans there for the UNLV game and I expect them to be there in flocks today.
Wichita reasoning: -Gonzaga has all the pressure in the world as the 1-seed and to be the first team to get past the sweet 16 while all other fans will root against them. They also have to deal with Carl Hall killing the offensive boards and just a tough team that will push them around all night long. The Zags are one of the deepest teams in the country and that's part of why they are a top-seed, but Pangos is tiny and will struggle to deal with the size/speed combination of Malcolm Armstead. GU usually has great wing defenders, but Wichita doesn't rely on outside scoring a ton. This is a game that will be made into a war on the interior by the Shockers and I think they could take Gonzaga out (hope not for my bracket though)
Got raped twice by Marquette resulting in one cover and a loss on my Butler to make the Sweet Sixteen prop, but overall feel okay because Cal had no chance of being the right side as they looked good for about 15 seconds all night yet came through. Updated postseason records below...
NIT: 0-1
NCAA: 5-1
add
La Salle +4 (-110) vs. Mississippi
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Got raped twice by Marquette resulting in one cover and a loss on my Butler to make the Sweet Sixteen prop, but overall feel okay because Cal had no chance of being the right side as they looked good for about 15 seconds all night yet came through. Updated postseason records below...
-Faded them all year pretty much and did well until the play-in game with Boise. They made all their shots and withstood a rally only to face the exact same thing from K-State in basically a home environment except they gave up the lead then took it back. While I love Marshall Henderson, he's a nutcase and can just as easily shoot his team out of a game as he can into one. His backcourt mates are not very good and will be exposed by the Philly guards the Explorers have (all 4 of them). The rotation is thin and they're on short rest, but that's the only real negative I see. Andy Kennedy has proven he's no genius and will have to use a lineup he doesn't want to because he likes to go zone and that won't work against a lineup of 3pt shooters and they can't have both Holloway and Buckner on the floor because only one of them can guard Jerell Wright. I don't think Ole Miss can score efficiently without Henderson going off so I will pay to see them win by more than a possession tomorrow.
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La Salle reasoning:
-Faded them all year pretty much and did well until the play-in game with Boise. They made all their shots and withstood a rally only to face the exact same thing from K-State in basically a home environment except they gave up the lead then took it back. While I love Marshall Henderson, he's a nutcase and can just as easily shoot his team out of a game as he can into one. His backcourt mates are not very good and will be exposed by the Philly guards the Explorers have (all 4 of them). The rotation is thin and they're on short rest, but that's the only real negative I see. Andy Kennedy has proven he's no genius and will have to use a lineup he doesn't want to because he likes to go zone and that won't work against a lineup of 3pt shooters and they can't have both Holloway and Buckner on the floor because only one of them can guard Jerell Wright. I don't think Ole Miss can score efficiently without Henderson going off so I will pay to see them win by more than a possession tomorrow.
Sunday guesses: Duke 5 IND 8.5 LaS 1 MIAfl 6 SDSU 5.5 tOSU 8 KU 6 UF 5.5
add Iowa State +7.5 (-110) vs. Ohio State -Been saying it all year, the Cyclones are the worst team to draw in this tournament (just ask Notre Dame). They can put five guys on the perimeter and that will force Evan Ravenel and Amir Williams into environments they don't want to be. I expect Deshaun Thomas to do well as he always does, but ISU can throw a bunch of players at him if things aren't working and it's possible that the length & speed combination of Will Clyburn could really limit what he does. If that happens, I am not sure how they could keep up scoring with a hot-shooting effort from Fred Hoiberg's team. Aaron Craft is going to harass Tyrus McGee most likely, but Chris Babb can take him defensively and basically force options 3 through 5 score for tOSU and I don't think that's a good proposition for covering this spread.
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thatguy, dov
Sunday guesses: Duke 5 IND 8.5 LaS 1 MIAfl 6 SDSU 5.5 tOSU 8 KU 6 UF 5.5
add Iowa State +7.5 (-110) vs. Ohio State -Been saying it all year, the Cyclones are the worst team to draw in this tournament (just ask Notre Dame). They can put five guys on the perimeter and that will force Evan Ravenel and Amir Williams into environments they don't want to be. I expect Deshaun Thomas to do well as he always does, but ISU can throw a bunch of players at him if things aren't working and it's possible that the length & speed combination of Will Clyburn could really limit what he does. If that happens, I am not sure how they could keep up scoring with a hot-shooting effort from Fred Hoiberg's team. Aaron Craft is going to harass Tyrus McGee most likely, but Chris Babb can take him defensively and basically force options 3 through 5 score for tOSU and I don't think that's a good proposition for covering this spread.
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