I know nothing about this Stephen F. Austin team but they are very intriguing. The line tonight against Long Beach St seems to be shaded heavily toward Long Beach, but i don't know if that is because nobody knows S.F.A. or if it is because they expect Long Beach to bring this team back to reality.
SF Austin has incredible defensive numbers and are #1 in opponent FG% in the country, but they have the 345th most difficult schedule in the country and just miss being the SMALLEST team in the country! This line is off and Stephen F Austin is getting what appears to be a tremendous value, and I can easily see that being simply because nobody has ever heard of them and you can get a very solid team (relatively speaking of course) at only -1! But I can just as easily believe that vegas knows that this is basically DII vs DI and expect them to win by 10 and have shaded the line to bet some $ on the dog.
I didn't check the line movement before this but just realized the line has dropped all the way to a pick 'em ------ and it opened at -3!
That would initially make you (and me) see that the large $ is on Long Beach, but its worth noting that all of the line movement toward SFA has occured today, before that the line bounced around some and actually got up to 3.5, I put more stock in line movement immediately after opening more than a slow trend throughout the day of what is more likely to be public money moving the line. If there is a heavy late rebound toward Long Beach though I may believe that it is 'sharp', but I don't even know why the hell I'm still talking about it because I honestly don't bet based on line movement... but oh well, guess I might.
I know nothing about this Stephen F. Austin team but they are very intriguing. The line tonight against Long Beach St seems to be shaded heavily toward Long Beach, but i don't know if that is because nobody knows S.F.A. or if it is because they expect Long Beach to bring this team back to reality.
SF Austin has incredible defensive numbers and are #1 in opponent FG% in the country, but they have the 345th most difficult schedule in the country and just miss being the SMALLEST team in the country! This line is off and Stephen F Austin is getting what appears to be a tremendous value, and I can easily see that being simply because nobody has ever heard of them and you can get a very solid team (relatively speaking of course) at only -1! But I can just as easily believe that vegas knows that this is basically DII vs DI and expect them to win by 10 and have shaded the line to bet some $ on the dog.
I didn't check the line movement before this but just realized the line has dropped all the way to a pick 'em ------ and it opened at -3!
That would initially make you (and me) see that the large $ is on Long Beach, but its worth noting that all of the line movement toward SFA has occured today, before that the line bounced around some and actually got up to 3.5, I put more stock in line movement immediately after opening more than a slow trend throughout the day of what is more likely to be public money moving the line. If there is a heavy late rebound toward Long Beach though I may believe that it is 'sharp', but I don't even know why the hell I'm still talking about it because I honestly don't bet based on line movement... but oh well, guess I might.
I swore I was going to take tonight off...didn't see anything that appealed to me. But I'm now resisting the urge to put a little on Long Beach State. They've played a legit schedule and though they got smoked against every powerhouse they faced, they're battle tested...and home. Wish I got on it sooner.
I swore I was going to take tonight off...didn't see anything that appealed to me. But I'm now resisting the urge to put a little on Long Beach State. They've played a legit schedule and though they got smoked against every powerhouse they faced, they're battle tested...and home. Wish I got on it sooner.
I see 75%+ consensus on Long Beach and covers 'team experts' are 11-2 in favor of Long Beach and the line is moving the other way... but I really think I'm going to be on the square public side betting Long Beach in this game. Those #s for SFA mean NOTHING in my opinion, just their size alone will mean huge matchup problems.
I see 75%+ consensus on Long Beach and covers 'team experts' are 11-2 in favor of Long Beach and the line is moving the other way... but I really think I'm going to be on the square public side betting Long Beach in this game. Those #s for SFA mean NOTHING in my opinion, just their size alone will mean huge matchup problems.
I'm not saying the game is over, it's not my first rodeo, but it really looks like Long Beach St is the team that is playing up a weight class, not the other way around. Hit a couple 3's now to stay within striking distance. Throughout the season they have played a much faster tempo than SFA, in my opinion they need to start using that press that they showed late in the first half and push the fast break in transition. They are playing SFA's game.
I'm not saying the game is over, it's not my first rodeo, but it really looks like Long Beach St is the team that is playing up a weight class, not the other way around. Hit a couple 3's now to stay within striking distance. Throughout the season they have played a much faster tempo than SFA, in my opinion they need to start using that press that they showed late in the first half and push the fast break in transition. They are playing SFA's game.
STONECOLD STUNNER on Long Beach State in the 2nd half. This game is over. Stonecold Stephen F Austin wins the game. Under 5 minutes left in the game, and they have a 10 point lead.
STONECOLD STUNNER on Long Beach State in the 2nd half. This game is over. Stonecold Stephen F Austin wins the game. Under 5 minutes left in the game, and they have a 10 point lead.
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