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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Slim's Sharp Prediction
Slim-Daddy send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: MGM Grand |
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#1
Posted: 2/18/2013 10:35:12 AM

Guys and Gals,

We had another stellar weekend! I only lost two games St. Joes and So Fla. Based upon the sytem I would make both plays again it works.

On to today: I'm determined to have a winning beginning of the week and to stay away from the NBA which has been horrific to me unless there is something that really stands out.

Early fade the public leans:

Pitt is favored by a mere 12% of the public at HOME granted they are laying considerable chalk the overwhelming amount of support on ND on the road is questionable. Lets watch the line movement it's already trending RLM towards Pitt. I hope the Public keeps pounding ND, as it will make the selection easy.

Nova is laying 10pts at home getting 74% of public love. Rutgers isn't a bad team and I think there guard play can match Nova's and keep the game close. 100% of the public is on the under in this game as well (very early).

Thats allI have for now. Lets see where the day takes us and as always lets keep the lines of communiucation open and the facts flowing. Any dope can throw darts and predict a game I like this thread b/c the people that come in throw out a rationale and reasons.

Respect to Scottcovers, Vnguyen, ssgt, Diamond, JRocks and everyone else that has added info that helps us allbe succesful.

Let's smack the book senseless again.

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#2
Posted: 2/18/2013 10:53:12 AM
Great thread! Here's to another profitable week!!!
Posted using a mobile device.
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#3
Posted: 2/18/2013 11:01:48 AM
Frog--
Thx for the imput yesterday. You were so right sometimes you just have to let it fly!
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#4
Posted: 2/18/2013 11:05:37 AM

Liking Pitt and especially Rutgers today.

Hey man sorry for the U119 yesterday - garbage time layup pushed it to 120 that was a kick to the balls. Good call on Wisky - next time I say bet against them at the Kohl center please slap me in the face. I hit on Iowa and Illinois tho so only down a unit. A layup away from a good day..oh well let's get it today!

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#5
Posted: 2/18/2013 11:08:54 AM
Did Rutgers lose one of their leading scorers ?

BOL today....
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#6
Posted: 2/18/2013 11:09:32 AM
Really like Pitt 
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#7
Posted: 2/18/2013 11:19:33 AM
Brailing--What are you hearing? Maybe that's why the line is so outta whack! I didn't hear Rutgers had injury issues.
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#8
Posted: 2/18/2013 11:31:05 AM

WHOA. THANK YOU BRAILING.

Eli Carter is out for the season with a leg injury sustained against Depaul. One of their best players.

No way I can back RU after this news.

I think Nova may actually be the play in light of this news.

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#9
Posted: 2/18/2013 11:43:51 AM
Yea ,  I was leaning Villanova after hearing this news..glad to help...GL 
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#10
Posted: 2/18/2013 12:33:59 PM

Brailing--

Thx so much!! Is 'Nova still 10 pts better? The game may become a no-paly for me. I live in the Philly region and "Nova is my fav team watch them religiously for yrs. This edition is a good TEAM but I question if they are playing over there heads. Both wins vs'L'Ville and "Cuse were bad spots for both teams. They blew out USF but they are absolutely horrible. Rutgers will show up, although ELi was there glue guy. I think I'll wait and see how they do w/out him and see if the "next man up" can play.

It's early in the week no rush.

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#11
Posted: 2/18/2013 12:38:49 PM
With this news under 130.5 would be the logical play. I wonder why the line is so high though? 66% on the under so far. Vegas may be laying a trap. I bet the Under moves up to the 70% publically backed range as the day goes on. 
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sdiamond7
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#12
Posted: 2/18/2013 1:37:40 PM
Hey Slim, with you on today's card not much on deck.
On the Nova/Rutgers game. Nova goes for about 80 pts a game against RU at Home. Very skeptical of Nova as large fav but have had great success vs RU over the past 5 years. Thinking the over is the play here - I can see a lot of garbage time especially with a 130 total.

By the way added you on my Topic Line. Thanks for the kudos as well. 
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#13
Posted: 2/18/2013 1:52:41 PM
Slim, 
Just grabbed Fairfield at -2 at Home vs Iona for couple of reasons:
Fairfield  6 of last 7 Ws and Iona 5 of 6 Ls.
Iona has been dreadful on the road and Fairfield decent at Home.
Only loss was to Hot Manhattan club. They have handled everyone else easily at home. This is a usual lose one win one - Iona won the last outgoing. Couldn't resist the price.
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#14
Posted: 2/18/2013 2:03:59 PM

Rutgers? My only thing would be look what happened to Kentucky when their best player went down. Tennessee is not very good and they won by a huge margin.

BOL

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#15
Posted: 2/18/2013 2:05:15 PM

Diamond-Makes alota sense (particularly on the over in RU vs VU).I defintiely think that will be my play. Everyone on here is on Iona. I never (rarely) play road teams. It appears to be 50/50 public.Depending on how the day goes I'm thinking of just one action reverse play. Maybe VU v RU over and Fairfield. I would strictly be tailing you as I know nothing of the small schools. I like the trends and home court advantage should just exacerbate the trend.

I love the over in "Nova, it looks like the public is now 65% on the under trending down a little bit.

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#16
Posted: 2/18/2013 2:35:13 PM
Slim, you're right should trend down from 130 because of Carter out.
14 ppg a lot to lose but they have 2 decent scorers left. Definitely on the over here with you - thinking we should grab at 129.

I can see action on Iona as they are the slightly better team but not recently. Took the club in better form today.
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#17
Posted: 2/18/2013 2:45:18 PM
Slim don't like card today, hope you all cash.  Get with you later in week.  Nice job yesterday.

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#18
Posted: 2/18/2013 3:50:13 PM
Been busy at work. Haven't been able to look at any games yet.
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#19
Posted: 2/18/2013 4:03:57 PM
Fyi

Drexel is 3-12 ATS as favorite, road dogs are 7-2 SU at Drexel

Villanova is 15-3 ATS in 1st half L18 games
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#20
Posted: 2/18/2013 4:24:32 PM

How bad is Hofstra? 70% of the public is on them getting 12.5 points. Drexel isnt a scoring machine but are at home. The under at 112.5 is also the public play at 76%.

Drexel and over?

The book is predicting a 61-49 type of game.

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#21
Posted: 2/18/2013 4:30:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by scottcovers:

Slim don't like card today, hope you all cash.  Get with you later in week.  Nice job yesterday.

I agree with Scott...card tonight sucks and lines are sharp as hell. But I do think i may have found a couple plays. First, I am steering clear of the ND/Pitt game. That line is spot on IMO and both sides will be sweatin' bullets until the very end. Second, can you all please take a look at Bill & Mary vs. Georgia St.? I am about 95% certain I will be on the Panthers tonight. W&M come into this game shooting very well the last 3 games averaging 1.07PPP. On a whim I researched their latest boxscores and found W&M has not shot above 41% in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. Panthers know how to shutdown the Tribe. Furthermore, my numbers have Ga. St. winning a 1 pt ballgame here but a comparison of average RPI's shows a significant gap in their opponents at 195 to 250 in favor of Ga. St. So there is some value in the -1 line. The revenge factor is on Bill & Mary's side and that is the only thing keeping me from pulling the trigger here. 

 PS - I also like K-St. tonight writeup coming soon....I have to go grill some chicken first

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#22
Posted: 2/18/2013 4:30:44 PM
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#23
Posted: 2/18/2013 4:55:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Slim-Daddy:

How bad is Hofstra? 70% of the public is on them getting 12.5 points. Drexel isnt a scoring machine but are at home. The under at 112.5 is also the public play at 76%.

Drexel and over?

The book is predicting a 61-49 type of game.

Both teams have defensive PPP's of .80 & .84 their past few games therefore we should see more scoring than usual.My numbers have a 63-60 win by Drexel with not much of a gap between average RPI's. I think that would explain the public being on Hofstra. I'm seeing a total of 116.5. If my numbers and your fade of 76% public play are correct, then I would agree with a play on the Over 116.5.
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#24
Posted: 2/18/2013 5:05:24 PM

JRock--

Thanks for the analysis on Drexel, I'm showing 77% on the under. Which is shocking with such a low number.

The public is now 79% on ND. 72% on Nova.

Getting interesting

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Slim-Daddy send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: MGM Grand |
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#25
Posted: 2/18/2013 5:06:45 PM
The over under # really evened out in Nova now at 53/47.
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