This is a great bounce back spot for the Jacks if history repeats itself. We got the line I was hoping for and I end to make my biggest bet of the year on the Jacks game but first the analysis.
Last we saw the Jacks they lost on the home court of their in state rival the University of South Dakota Coyotes. They were down 17 at half and clawed all the way back to nearly winning the game but fell short. This has always been a spot I love for the Jacks. Games in which they knew they should have won on the road but fell short and coming home for a homestead in conference play. Similarly I love it when they destroy a team either at home or on the road and play another conference foe. Great situational spot tonight IMHO.
Lets look at history. This year the Jacks lost by 3 at Bama and then came home and beat up Tennessee State (was up 15 at half but won by 7 in the end). They lost by 3 at Hofstra (yeah they did no joke) and then came home and destroyed the University of DC by 48 (up 29 at half). They lost by 24 at Minnesota and then destroyed Dakota State by 31 at home. They lost in double digits at Belmont then next game beat New Mexico in the Pit.
Last year the Jacks had a similar track record. They lost at Minnesota and then beat Niagera by 8. They lost at UNL by 14 and won three straight at home by an average of 30 point margins. They lost by 18 at NDSU then won the next night at Washington by 19 and next home game destroyed IPFW by 36. Lost at ORU by 22 and then came home and destroyed USD by 32. Lost at Oakland by 5 and came home and destroyed ORU by 15. Lost at USD by 4 and came home and destroyed NDSU by 23.
Yes I know Unversity of DC and Dakota State might be a stretch. The point I am making is that they seem to be all in the next home game after a tough loss (especially if in conference play). I expect the same out of them tonight.
Additionally, if you look at matchup between the Jacks and Oakland you see that the Jacks beat Oakland last year in Frost pretty easily. Further, this is the worst Oakland team in the last three seasons. They lost Benson two years ago and then lost Reggie Hamilton last year. Also, when they lose on the road they tend to loss by more than 8 points. The only comparative game I can give at this point in the season is the University of Alabama. The Jacks lead most of the time and lost on a last second three at the buzzer to lose the game where Oakland rarely lead and ended up losing at Bama by 20.
I usually do worry about size too and in this case there is a little to worry about in that Oakland is bigger than the undersized big men for the Jacks. However, when I saw how the Jacks contained Kirk for the Lobos a few weeks back I am starting to lessen a little bit on that stance. I just think the history of how the Jacks bounce back in games like this it too much for me not do play the game.
As a result of the above... the following will be my play...
SDSU -7 -120 (or if I can get a better line closer to tip) risking 4.8 units to win 4 units
SDSU -4 1H (or if I can get a better line closer to tip) risking 2.2 units to win 2 unit
3 team parlay of: SDSU ML; IUPUI ML (at UNO); and IPFW +21.5 (I bought 6 points) risking 1 unit to win 1.25 units
BOL to all!
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