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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Appalachian State
MoneyBloxx
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#1
Posted: 1/8/2013 12:12:47 PM
Appalachian State +9 @ Wofford -9

Recording plays in 2013
CBB: 0-0


I don't usually post plays but I am going to start, and for my first I am going to do a write-up because this is a 'special occasion' play for me. I say this because I have had my eye on Appalachian State's numbers the last week or so and noticed that:
  • App St is 7-0 ATS on the year.
  • They have played 12 games so far with no lines for five of their games (first three and last two games - no lines) which is why they are 7-0 ATS right now.
  • Six of their seven ATS wins have come on the road, that's right, six of those seven have come on the road which means that Appalachian is not deterred from giving effort when they are on the road.
  • Their road covers include games @ Missouri, Va Tech, E. Carolina, and S. Carolina. Of these games they covered their spread by more than a few buckets. 
  • Wofford is playing at home for the first time since Dec. 5. so they have not gotten any game time in on their home court, plus I don't think this games' crowd will really give them any advantage, I think for these smaller schools a lot of the time its just the home team is more settled on that home court. Now App St. hasn't played a game in 9 days with the last game being a non-Division I team, but the supposedly have had intense practice to lead up to this game.
  • And to add on to my previous point, I noticed that Wofford is stacked with underclassmen with only one junior and one senior with the majority of the team being (7) freshman and (5) sophomores. App St on the other hand has a better balance of experience to go around.  Wofford has three scorers average double figures (16, 10, 10 ppg) and they are a freshman and two sophomores. The next person after those three averages 5, and the production just drops off, and I'm assuming because of the inexperience. App St.'s top three scorers (16, 11, 10 ppg) are a senior and two sophomores. And after those three, the production continues with the next scorers respectively averaging 9, 8, 7, 4 with just about everyone averaging something which means that everyone is used to contributing. 
  • App State has the statistical advantage in most categories with some being ever such as assists and turnovers, but I don't want to play too much into this factor only because Wofford has played stronger competition overall. But App State has been more impressive in covering its spreads than Wofford has. Jason Healy, a forward for App st who is also one of their leading scorers is shooting almost 90% from the FT line and 46% from 3-point range, oh and he's a senior, so I can definitely see him with the ball going down the stretch getting to the foul line or hitting some big threes to get the cover.  
  • May or may not matter, but App St. has the overall size advantage also.

These bullet points were just a few things that stood out to me, but the main premise for my lean is based on App St.'s 7-0 ATS record with 6-0 on the road, most by a few baskets or more. All the extra stuff makes me lean more to App St. at +8.5. I know they have to lose ATS at some point, but my gut is telling me that it won't be in this game. It is still too early for me to pull the trigger right now, so I will be back later to post how many units I decided to place on App St. and any other information I that I have to share about this matchup or others.  

So as of right now Appalachian State is looking like a possible big play for me. I have to get the updates on any injuries if there any and stuff like that. This write-up is based solely on looking at stats, trends, and rosters. 

I know many of you don't touch these kinds of games but for those of you that do, help me out here and let me know if I'm overlooking anything about either of these teams that I should be considering in my capping.

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MoneyBloxx
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#2
Posted: 1/8/2013 12:16:08 PM
Line is plus +9 now..it was +8.5 last night when i started this write-up
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#3
Posted: 1/8/2013 12:16:35 PM
App State has struggles with Wofford and in conference play history repeats itself a lot. Wofford will control the pace of play and even though Wofford has struggled to score at times this App St team is TERRIBLE on defense. App St is very one on one reliant in their offense and that is tough sledding against a team like Wofford.
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#4
Posted: 1/8/2013 12:17:03 PM
Very solid write-up. I like App St has the offense to stay within the number. Gl.
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MoneyBloxx
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#5
Posted: 1/8/2013 12:21:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by YACKER:

App State has struggles with Wofford and in conference play history repeats itself a lot. Wofford will control the pace of play and even though Wofford has struggled to score at times this App St team is TERRIBLE on defense. App St is very one on one reliant in their offense and that is tough sledding against a team like Wofford.


Their defense I'm sure is terrible because they rank nearly as a bottom feeder, but what matters to me is that they have covered every game, and not by one basket either, mostly by a few buckets. They played at Mizzou with +25 spread and lost by only 16. I don't care for them to win, I just want them to get the cover. Thanks for you feedback. I will look into App's defense a little more, but with 9 days since their last game, and lots of practice time, I think they might be able to come up with a game plan to hang against Wofford (we are talking about Wofford here)
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MoneyBloxx
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#6
Posted: 1/8/2013 12:27:08 PM
One thing that scares me at the moment is that public is heavier on App state right now, and there was some reverse line movement with App state opening at +8.5 going to +9 being a heavy public favorite. Hope I'm not making a square play
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#7
Posted: 1/8/2013 12:29:14 PM
 Welp..
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#8
Posted: 1/8/2013 2:07:05 PM
answer me good question blox why is the line 9  it shd be 2  or 3 i luv wofford alot  they will win by 12-15 but dont let me talk u off it  ive been betting sports 40 years and  i think  the only wey to play is in game live wagering big advantage to the player  do pple agree with that and i am the best handicapper on this site but i do not post cause i wood have to many pple betting my teams and the line wood be adjusted not in my favor    good luck with app state tonight peace
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#9
Posted: 1/8/2013 2:59:41 PM
Good Luck Tonight....
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#10
Posted: 1/8/2013 4:03:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hoopsct:

answer me good question blox why is the line 9  it shd be 2  or 3 i luv wofford alot  they will win by 12-15 but dont let me talk u off it  ive been betting sports 40 years and  i think  the only wey to play is in game live wagering big advantage to the player  do pple agree with that and i am the best handicapper on this site but i do not post cause i wood have to many pple betting my teams and the line wood be adjusted not in my favor    good luck with app state tonight peace
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#11
Posted: 1/8/2013 4:08:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hoopsct:

answer me good question blox why is the line 9  it shd be 2  or 3 i luv wofford alot  they will win by 12-15 but dont let me talk u off it  ive been betting sports 40 years and  i think  the only wey to play is in game live wagering big advantage to the player  do pple agree with that and i am the best handicapper on this site but i do not post cause i wood have to many pple betting my teams and the line wood be adjusted not in my favor    good luck with app state tonight peace
you been wagering 40 years and yet you write like an 18 yr old, stop with the bs bozo. U have no idea who's going to win tonight, app.st covers at best, wouldn't be surprised to see an out right victory.
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MoneyBloxx
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#12
Posted: 1/8/2013 5:35:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hoopsct:

answer me good question blox why is the line 9  it shd be 2  or 3 i luv wofford alot  they will win by 12-15 but dont let me talk u off it  ive been betting sports 40 years and  i think  the only wey to play is in game live wagering big advantage to the player  do pple agree with that and i am the best handicapper on this site but i do not post cause i wood have to many pple betting my teams and the line wood be adjusted not in my favor    good luck with app state tonight peace


I have wondered that myself about the line and what's scary now is that it moved from 8.5 to 9.5 with the public heavy on App state. The public could by buying into the 7-0 ats record as I was earlier. I'm going to watch the line to see if it moves any more. I didn't expect it to move a whole point. The spread isn't 2-3 but maybe it should be and App is getting no credit, because Missouri line was 25.5 and they lost by 16, I didn't watch that game so that may not mean much. But either way, I think App State will give a good effort..Thanks for your insight
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#13
Posted: 1/8/2013 6:14:20 PM
Captians pap u shd stick to playing checkers I'm surecu don't no how to handicap a bookmakers dream u r for sure
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#14
Posted: 1/8/2013 6:37:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hoopsct:

answer me good question blox why is the line 9  it shd be 2  or 3 i luv wofford alot  they will win by 12-15 but dont let me talk u off it  ive been betting sports 40 years and  i think  the only wey to play is in game live wagering big advantage to the player  do pple agree with that and i am the best handicapper on this site but i do not post cause i wood have to many pple betting my teams and the line wood be adjusted not in my favor    good luck with app state tonight peace


Sagarin Ratings has Wofford @ 72.36 + 3 (Home court) = 75.36
Appalachian State @ 64.10
Looks like a 11 pt difference. Oddsmakers use these ratings to obtain a basis for the game line and then go from there.
I'm leaning Wofford -9

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MoneyBloxx
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#15
Posted: 1/8/2013 9:01:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by spovegas:



Sagarin Ratings has Wofford @ 72.36 + 3 (Home court) = 75.36
Appalachian State @ 64.10
Looks like a 11 pt difference. Oddsmakers use these ratings to obtain a basis for the game line and then go from there.
I'm leaning Wofford -9



Appalachian State covers and wins ML ....I should have played ML but I wasn't confident enough. I analyzed this game pretty hard, the fact that I decided to even do a write-up is enough for me to feel great about this App state team going into Wofford.

App State now 8-0 ats this year 7-0 on the road ats.
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#16
Posted: 1/8/2013 9:04:12 PM
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#17
Posted: 1/8/2013 9:05:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hoopsct:

Captians pap u shd stick to playing checkers I'm surecu don't no how to handicap a bookmakers dream u r for sure


40 years gambling and you write the way a tween would.  Get real pal, you're not fooling anyone with that b.s.

hoopsct
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#18
Posted: 1/8/2013 9:29:34 PM
Great pick. Thanks!
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#19
Posted: 1/8/2013 9:57:16 PM
Nice to start 1-0, congratulation
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#20
Posted: 1/8/2013 10:38:10 PM
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#21
Posted: 1/8/2013 10:43:54 PM

Great write up on this game.  You capped it perfectly.  Wish you would have gotten the ML and better yet...me tailing this one.

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MoneyBloxx
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#22
Posted: 1/9/2013 1:10:50 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by No_Contest:

Nice to start 1-0, congratulation


Thanks...It's only one play, but I hope its the start of a streak. I will post a play tomorrow. I'm looking for a gem like this App st. game.


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#23
Posted: 1/9/2013 10:35:44 AM
I saw your post after the game had started so I didn't reply about being on the same side. I to have been playing App St for quit a few games. The ATS record is perfect. Loosing S U helps also. GL keep finding these gems$$$
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#24
Posted: 1/9/2013 11:28:52 AM
Nice pick...shocked to see Wofford only attempt 10 3PT's. App St must have took it away. Good call bro!
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#25
Posted: 1/9/2013 12:14:05 PM
this was a lock thanks man wish i wouldnt of let these other idiot talk me out of it on here!!!
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