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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: South Dakota State @ Belmont... Wednesday, December 19, 2012 @ 7:00 p.m. (Central)
jesron1269 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 12/18/2012 1:02:54 PM

The 9-3 South Dakota State Jackrabbits take on the 7-3 Belmont Bruins in the Bruins house.  While the Bruins are a perfect 3-0 straight up at home this year the Jacks at 3-3 straight up on the road this year, South Dakota State pulled off the upset road win Saturday night against Montana who had won 15 straight home games so I know that it can be done.  I have yet to see a statement game from the Jacks.  Meaning just drubbing a team from beginning to end either at home or away.  Not saying this will be the game but they have been getting better and better since the Minnesota debackle so who knows.

Belmont is lead by there three-headed seniors (Clark, Johnson and Noack).  They have experience but have just as much (if not less) size than the Jacks.  I usually am willing to bet on the Jacks shooting against nearly anyone, the quickness and athletism of Nate Wolters against anyone, it is the size the worries me.  In this case NO WORRIES as they are the same size to smaller across the starting five.

I have never seen them play so I do not know about their tempo.  I will be looking into this aspect later.  Also there appears to be no injuries to worry about.  But I will also look into this later too.

More needs to be discussed before a play can be made but I would put the line at:

Belmont -6.5.  BOL!

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#2
Posted: 12/18/2012 1:05:07 PM
Will definitely keep an eye on this one. BOL Jesron. 
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#3
Posted: 12/18/2012 1:10:27 PM
Are you kidding me? It'll be double digit spread.
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#4
Posted: 12/18/2012 1:13:13 PM

just as much (if not less) size???

Did you mean "just as much (if not MORE) size"???

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#5
Posted: 12/18/2012 1:14:10 PM
Kenpom has it at 14 and Sagarin has it at 18.  So let that be your guide.
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#6
Posted: 12/18/2012 2:49:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dangor2:

Kenpom has it at 14 and Sagarin has it at 18.  So let that be your guide.

I am guessing 12 or 13.
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#7
Posted: 12/18/2012 3:01:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gbpackman:

just as much (if not less) size???

Did you mean "just as much (if not MORE) size"???

No I mean what I said.  Belmont is undersized.  Even more so than SDSU.

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#8
Posted: 12/18/2012 3:03:39 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by dangor2:

Kenpom has it at 14 and Sagarin has it at 18.  So let that be your guide.

If I get 18 points I will make the biggest bet of my life on that play (10 units).  The way I look at it Oral Roberts was getting 8 and SDSU is better than ORU.  We will see.

By the way they beat ORU by 3.

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#9
Posted: 12/18/2012 3:04:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by allbees:


I am guessing 12 or 13.

I would love it if that is the case.  Like I always say if I think the line should be -6.5 and it comes out at 13.  I am on SDSU.  BOL allbees!

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#10
Posted: 12/18/2012 3:04:47 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Ktrain:

Will definitely keep an eye on this one. BOL Jesron. 

Thanks Ktrain.  BOL today!

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#11
Posted: 12/18/2012 3:22:30 PM

BetOnline came out with Belmont -11.5 as the only line out yet.  We will see where it ends but that is certainly a favorable line for SDSU but like always there are a few things I need to check on first before making my play and I do like to watch the line movement a little.  I will post more thoughts as I review this game and post my play (if any) before tip.  As always if anyone else hasd thoughts about the game go ahead and post them.  As you can see I can deal with critics.  I may not respond to them but I can deal with them.  BOL!

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#12
Posted: 12/18/2012 3:41:54 PM
In case anyone cares... the only Summit League game on the schedule is Western Illinois Leathernecks and I simply love this team.  I think NDSU and WIU might be my two favorite teams to be on or against (other than SDSU of course) this season.  I know nothing about their opponent but I would lean blind WIU at home getting a couple points or ML (if you now have to give a point).  I think they have a chance to beat anyone straight up at home.  WIU is 2-0 straight up at home this year and while IL-CHI is also 2-0 on the road straight up this year does one year really make that much of a difference?  They have been 4-29 on the road the past 3 years.  Ouch!  BOL to all!
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#13
Posted: 12/18/2012 5:57:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jesron1269:

In case anyone cares... the only Summit League game on the schedule is Western Illinois Leathernecks and I simply love this team.  I think NDSU and WIU might be my two favorite teams to be on or against (other than SDSU of course) this season.  I know nothing about their opponent but I would lean blind WIU at home getting a couple points or ML (if you now have to give a point).  I think they have a chance to beat anyone straight up at home.  WIU is 2-0 straight up at home this year and while IL-CHI is also 2-0 on the road straight up this year does one year really make that much of a difference?  They have been 4-29 on the road the past 3 years.  Ouch!  BOL to all!

I have noticed a few posters on board with WIU tonight and it looks like the line has swung a couple of points towards WIU making them a small fave. 

I admit I know very little about either team and am deferring to the knowledge of other posters, but this does seem like a good spot for WIU. Seems somewhat similar to last nights OU/Valpo game in some ways. 

I'm also interested in LSU/UCI (especially since I live in Irvine). I like this spot for LSU here. I think the Boise blow out was an eye opener and I don't think UCI is all they are made out to be. Their loss to UCLA is becoming less impressive every day and they really haven't been noteworthy with the rest of their schedule. They also have USC on deck later this week. Seems to me like that would be a much bigger game for them to focus on than beating LSU. Just my opinion. BOL Jerson. 
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#14
Posted: 12/18/2012 5:59:19 PM
Good Luck
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#15
Posted: 12/18/2012 6:11:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Ktrain:


I have noticed a few posters on board with WIU tonight and it looks like the line has swung a couple of points towards WIU making them a small fave. 

I admit I know very little about either team and am deferring to the knowledge of other posters, but this does seem like a good spot for WIU. Seems somewhat similar to last nights OU/Valpo game in some ways. 

I'm also interested in LSU/UCI (especially since I live in Irvine). I like this spot for LSU here. I think the Boise blow out was an eye opener and I don't think UCI is all they are made out to be. Their loss to UCLA is becoming less impressive every day and they really haven't been noteworthy with the rest of their schedule. They also have USC on deck later this week. Seems to me like that would be a much bigger game for them to focus on than beating LSU. Just my opinion. BOL Jerson. 

Ktrain I like the way you think.  I too would lean blind on LSU in a short line but since I know nothing about UC-Irvine and I didn't have time to effectively research it I left it alone.  I am not making a bet today but I will monitor how the games and and remember them for future plays.  BOL to you today!

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#16
Posted: 12/19/2012 9:28:41 AM
Line is now Belmont -8.5 across the board.  So much for laughing jtoler saying at least double digits.  Now I really wish I was getting double digits.  This line sucks.  Still lean South Dakota State but might be no play now.
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#17
Posted: 12/19/2012 9:53:25 AM
It opened at double digits.
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#18
Posted: 12/19/2012 10:51:38 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by jtoler:

It opened at double digits.

Wrong.  It opened at 9 and went right to 8.5.  BetOnline had 11.5 but no one else did.  They always open before everyone else and unless you have an account with them it is worthless.  I would LOVE double digits but this line might be too sharpe to play.

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#19
Posted: 12/19/2012 11:02:59 AM

Well this is what I see worth noting...

SDSU is 3-3 SU and 2-2 ATS on the road this year.  Meaning a toss up statistically.  They are 3-4 this year and 11-6 the last three years in non-conference games (with SDSU what they did the last three years actually has some relevance because the starting crew has been together that long for the most part).  This year SDSU has on average taken a 2 point lead into half but lost by 3 on average on the road this year.

Belmont is 3-0 SU, but only 1-3 ATS at home as a favorite.  Belmont has taken a 9 point lead into the half and won on average of by 30 this year.

The only common opponent these two will have (meaning SDSU has not played yet this year but will twice each year) is Oral Roberts University.  Belmont beat ORU by 3 (70-67) when they were 8 point favorites around Thanksgiving.  ORU is without Dominque Morrison was a SUPER STUD this year as he graduated.  Morrison burned everyone he played so ORU is definately not as good a team this year as years past which makes this game against them very suspect and makes me think the Jacks can hang with them.  Problem is beyond that I have literally nothing else to hang my hat on.  If i was gettting 8.5 in Frost I would take it no doubt but in a home that I know nothing about I just don't know.

LEAN STILL:  SDSU +8.5.  Will update as I learn more.  BOL!

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#20
Posted: 12/19/2012 11:10:02 AM

jesron....i'm up to +9.5 now.........

jtoler put more money on belmont to raise this line for us please!!!!

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#21
Posted: 12/19/2012 11:15:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jredmond:

jesron....i'm up to +9.5 now.........

jtoler put more money on belmont to raise this line for us please!!!!

Love it.  Hope it keeps rising.  I am going to monitor it for a couple hours.  If I can still get 9.5 I might buy the half point and take my chances.  Only for a unit though as I just don't have a feel for Belmont as much as I like to make a bigger play.

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#22
Posted: 12/19/2012 5:35:25 PM

Lookings at Belmont's games in where they struggled it has been at the guard play, especially if they have range.  Joel Smith for Northeasterns scored 26 on 6/9 3 point shooting in route to a 74-71 win over Belmont.  The following game against Oral Roberts (they were in the Summit League last year) it was actually a 6-8 big man (see how I say Belmont does not have overwelming size) had 16 rebounds and ORU outrebounded Belmont 48-23 to lose by three.  Three guards contributed for 31 points in 6-23 shooting (but 15-16 at the FT line).  Finally, just this past Saturday Kansas destroyed Belmont (yes I know Kansas is better than both teams but hear me out) on the strength of guards Ben McLemore 17 points on 4/5 from behind the arc (guard that has range), Travis Releford 17 points on 2/2 from behind the arc (guard that has range) and Andrew White III 15 points on 3/5 from behind the arc.  Well you get the point.

The Jackrabbits have three legit guards in 6-4 Nate Wolters, 6-4 Brayden Carlson and 6-6 Chad White.   6-3 guard Traevaun Prince is instance offense off the bench too.  Wolters, Carlson & White all have great range (36% to 39%) and their 6-8 F/C actually leads the team with 52% from behind the arc.  These boys can shoot.  Not saying of course that is how tonight will end up but at least I found enough of an angle to put into play what I leaned since I figure saw the line.

My plays is:

South Dakota State +10 -120 for 2 units

I will not be making a 1H play this time as it appear Belmont is just as good a first half team as SDSU and I will let the full game ride.  BOL to all!

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#23
Posted: 12/19/2012 6:40:21 PM

Leaving work, change cloths, take my kids to hockey and then I will be off to Cubby's to watch the game.  Just a couple thoughts if the Jacks get down at half.  They have done this before (other than against MIN) and they always seem to make it a game.  So a good play is to gamble on the idea that perhaps Belmont takes a 8-10 point lead into half and then take Jacks +3 or so and get a better full line.  I probably wil not since I already have 2 units on this game but something to think about.  BOL to all!

If this game wins I will probably put a unit on UNI +10 too.

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#24
Posted: 12/20/2012 3:21:47 AM
Opened at 10 at Bookmaker and Cris also, didnt matter the Bunnies aint for real.
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#25
Posted: 12/20/2012 3:29:42 AM
Well done.  
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