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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: ^^^ quanza ncaab picks ^^^
quanza send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
quanza
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#1
Posted: 11/15/2012 3:00:17 PM
Going forward, i will base my ncaab picks on the points per possession formula. I will also take into the acct opening lines of  <10 pts and home-field advantage. Some schools have some tough venues to play in and i will take this into consideration sometimes. 

11/15 ncaab
MurrayST 1.24 vs AUB 0.89
MurrayST -3
1u

This is the largest margin in points per possession on the board today, hence why I'm playing it.

This is an experiment, so I'm playing it lightly to gather some data and possibly some  
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Posted: 11/15/2012 4:36:36 PM
I overlooked the schedule and didn't see the NCST vs PennST game. This is a no play being it above the +\- 10 pts spread...nc state currently at -13

Efficiency stats has nc state at a staggering 1.33 vs 0.98 for penn state. Considering the neutral field this is a huge advantage for nc state. I am going to play this due to the margin of efficiency.

Nc state -13

Bol  

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Posted: 11/15/2012 6:48:56 PM
Adding 
WebST  -2.5 (1.46 rating vs 0.92 of SJ state) 
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Posted: 11/15/2012 7:02:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by quanza:

I overlooked the schedule and didn't see the NCST vs PennST game. This is a no play being it above the +\- 10 pts spread...nc state currently at -13

Efficiency stats has nc state at a staggering 1.33 vs 0.98 for penn state. Considering the neutral field this is a huge advantage for nc state. I am going to play this due to the margin of efficiency.

Nc state -13

Bol  


Ok that worked out ok. I still would prefer the under 10 pts line in picking games. Winner regardless, now going to see how the other games pan out.  
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#5
Posted: 11/15/2012 7:11:08 PM
Keep them coming! I'm Tailing You and Lovin' It So Far! Great Work!
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Posted: 11/15/2012 7:32:13 PM
Adding 
Providence +8

Advantage in efficiency  1.08straight up vs UMASS 0.87

Taking the points here
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Posted: 11/15/2012 9:48:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by quanza:

Adding 
Providence +8

Advantage in efficiency  1.08straight up vs UMASS 0.87

Taking the points here
 

I had them winning outright and it was sooooo close. Managed to cover though based on my rating so it's all good.
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Posted: 11/15/2012 9:49:40 PM
Adding NCO +4

Again getting points here on the road but my analysis has them being the better team.. 
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Posted: 11/15/2012 10:15:06 PM
Ncst -13
MurraySt -4
Providence +8

     
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Posted: 11/15/2012 11:50:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by quanza:

Adding NCO +4

Again getting points here on the road but my analysis has them being the better team.. 

There goes the streak 
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Posted: 11/16/2012 12:41:15 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by quanza:

Adding 
WebST  -2.5 (1.46 rating vs 0.92 of SJ state) 


Finished the day at 3-2
It would have been a nice finish but late games didn't go so well despite the overwhelming number differential. 

Still a profitable day ! 
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