Vegas vs Kenpom System Week I

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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Vegas vs Kenpom System Week I
beaverfan23 PM beaverfan23
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Posted: 11/8/2012 7:21:14 PM
The basis is simple.  If there is a "large" difference between the opening line and the fanmatch line on kenpom.com, I will side with Vegas.

System rules:

If the opening line is between 0 and 4, a large difference is 2.5
4.5 to 8, a large difference is 3 points.
8.5 to 12, a large difference is 3.5 points.
12.5 to 15.5, a large difference is 4 points.
16 and up, a large difference is 5 points.

Two notes:

I will not be wagering on the Dogs that have over 50% of the bets according to covers contests.

I will not be wagering on the Favorites that have over 60% of the bets according to covers contests.
beaverfan23 PM beaverfan23
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Posted: 11/8/2012 7:22:37 PM
Make that 3 notes:

THird one - First half plays will be the official plays
beaverfan23 PM beaverfan23
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Posted: 11/8/2012 7:23:11 PM
Make that 3 notes:

THird one - First half plays will be the official plays
flyerlax06 PM flyerlax06
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Posted: 11/8/2012 7:27:55 PM
Beaver are you going to pick a specific book to use for opening lines or just go with whichever one is first? 
beaverfan23 PM beaverfan23
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Posted: 11/8/2012 8:43:50 PM
opener according to maddux sports...just becuase they are easy to find and listed the day before
beaverfan23 PM beaverfan23
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Posted: 11/8/2012 9:39:07 PM
Marquette
Virginia
Miss St.
Samford
Colorado St

are all tentative plays
PimpJzH PM PimpJzH
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Posted: 11/9/2012 4:29:01 AM
when you going to make them official?
beaverfan23 PM beaverfan23
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Posted: 11/9/2012 9:36:16 AM
Official Friday Plays:

Virginia -2 1H (RFA)
Samford +2.5 1H (RDT)
Colorado St -5.5 1H (HFT)



Hosser PM Hosser
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Posted: 11/9/2012 10:44:32 AM
thanks beaverfan. will you be keeping the picks in one thread or starting a new one each week?
beaverfan23 PM beaverfan23
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Posted: 11/9/2012 10:50:36 AM
new each week
PimpJzH PM PimpJzH
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Posted: 11/9/2012 12:26:28 PM
all 3 locked and loaded GL us 
gillster18 PM gillster18
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Posted: 11/9/2012 12:52:31 PM
what is RFA  RDT  HFT??

flyerlax06 PM flyerlax06
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Posted: 11/9/2012 3:44:52 PM
H stands for home

R stands for road

F stands for favorite

D stands for dog

T stands for Toward (as in the line is moving towards KP)

A stands for away (as in the line is moving away from KP)

All of these factors have their own statistics and I'm sure beaver can go into more detail.

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jtoler PM jtoler
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Posted: 11/9/2012 4:01:47 PM
Youll hit at about 50%.
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PimpJzH PM PimpJzH
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Posted: 11/9/2012 7:51:41 PM
Jesus first bad beat of season had uva at a pk first half gmu drains 3 as time expires lol
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beaverfan23 PM beaverfan23
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Posted: 11/9/2012 7:54:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jtoler:

Youll hit at about 50%.


I sure hope so!

Check back in a few weeks
Dubfire PM Dubfire
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Posted: 11/9/2012 11:51:00 PM
we'll get it back tomorrow. 
BABYFACE024 PM BABYFACE024
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Posted: 11/9/2012 11:54:18 PM
glad to see you are back with it again!
flyerlax06 PM flyerlax06
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Posted: 11/10/2012 12:08:51 AM
Not sure there are any plays tomorrow
beaverfan23 PM beaverfan23
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Posted: 11/10/2012 5:45:24 AM
Thats correct, NO Plays on Saturday.

Rough start last night boys
2dawgnation2 PM 2dawgnation2
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Posted: 11/10/2012 9:21:47 AM

Maybe I read it incorrectly but why isn't WKU +4 a play?

 

KP has it at 8

flyerlax06 PM flyerlax06
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Posted: 11/10/2012 10:18:57 AM
Vegas opened at 7 so there is only a 1 point difference. For a game with a line that high the difference needs to be at least 3 points.
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flyerlax06 PM flyerlax06
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Posted: 11/11/2012 1:11:33 AM
Not seeing any plays for Sunday either.
flyerlax06 PM flyerlax06
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Posted: 11/11/2012 7:57:15 PM
Definitely see some potential plays for tomorrow. Stay tuned to the week 2 thread. I'm sure beaver will want to wait to see the public % before he posts them.
beaverfan23 PM beaverfan23
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Posted: 11/11/2012 10:13:33 PM
Thank you for posting Flyer, I got a new job recently and have been pressed for time.

I will stick with this thread since there hasn't been much action to clog this one up.

There are potential plays tomorrow, but I will wait till morning to post officially.

Last season started with a very small amount of plays also, but then it picked up after a couple weeks.  Stay tuned boys!
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