Intro to College Basketball Betting

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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Intro to College Basketball Betting
KineProfessor PM KineProfessor
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Posted: 10/24/2012 2:30:02 PM
Thought I'd post a few thoughts that have helped me be a consistent winner over the last five years.
1. Have a Philosophy
Ask yourself a few questions: Am I betting cbb for fun or profit?  Do I expect to lose my money or double it?  Am I in this for the short-term (till I lose my money or win a certain amount) or long-term (going to be betting all season - this also speaks to the amount of units you should bet).  *Special note: if you are in this for fun or the short-term (which is perfectly fine) this thread and all my threads won't be for you.  My philosophies are for people who do this for profit and who are in for the long haul.

My personal philosophy (in cbb wagering and in life) is to see what "everyone" is doing and do the opposite.  The truth is that 90-95% of the posters on this forum will lose their money very quickly and/or reload half a dozen or more times during the season.  Success (and failures) leaves clues.  The losing players do the following things:
a. they bet only on games they can watch and "sweat" through
b. they bet only televised and/or on ranked teams
c. they bet at the last second before tipoff usually getting the worst possible line
d. they focus on THE ENTIRE CARD by spending one to two minutes on fifty or more games
e. they MUST bet every single day and almost always bet "favorites" (or overs)
f. they are inconsistent with how much they bet each game
g. they bet less money (or less often) when they are winning and bet much more money (and more often) when they are losing
h. they easily go "on tilt" (because they always watch the games they bet on and feel like every loss is a bad beat) 
i. they don't have the desire to research games/teams on their own so they search the forums for ANY opinion on ANY game and follow blindly
j. they stupidly evaluate the quality of a bet based solely on the final score of the game

My philosophy:
1. I never watch my bets: I watch tons of college basketball but always games that I have no money on so that I can objectively evaluate both teams and use that information later on in the season.  Please understand that it is IMPOSSIBLE to objectively evaluate a wager (or team) when you have money on the game, you will always have bias towards your bet.
2. I rarely bet on ranked teams or games that are nationally televised.  The main reason being is that those lines are SIGNIFICANTLY tighter and information about injuries, strategies, and other "angles" are much more readily available
3. I try to always bet as early as possible (sometimes the night before or other times the morning of) in an attempt to get the best line.  If I am going to bet on a team that I think won't be "a public play"(aka an ugly underdog), I'll wait till the last second in a attempt to get the best line.
4. I focus my energy on one (or two at the most) conferences and only a handful of teams.  I'd rather spend 30 minutes a piece studying 6 teams than spend 6 minutes a piece studying 30 teams.
5. I bet only when I see "value" so some days I won't bet, others I'll only have one play or others I'll have as many plays as I feel are worth it
6. I bet a higher percentage of my bankroll than most "quality winning players" on this site.  As I've explained before, I do this so that I continue to narrow down my plays to one I really feel strongly about as even one loss "hurts" my bankroll.  In terms of easy math, lets say that I start with a bankroll of 5000 dollars.  I'll make each of my plays 5% of that bankroll (250 dollars) and while that doesn't sound like a lot by itself, a losing streak of four games already drops my bankroll 20%.  Also realize that if I make a bet that is 2-units, 10% of my bankroll is on the line.  It should also be noted that 1-unit is 5% of my CURRENT bankroll, meaning that if I win four straight bets, my bankroll in the above example would now be 6000 so my NEW unit is now 300.  If I am enduring a losing streak, then my unit will be less.  This makes sense that when you are on a roll and seeing things clearly, you bet slightly more and when you are in a funk, you bet less.
7.  I research all my own games using the same "filters" each time (aka kenpom, google news, twitter/facebook, blueribbon, etc.).  Choose your resources and "angles" wisely and don't fall into the trap of using EVERY resource as they will often only confuse and contradict each other.  I should also mention here that I have a few trusted "resources" (read: gamehunter, jfen, riccio, harvey and a few others) that if they tell me they are on a play, I will research that game as well to see if I want to join in or not.  These above posters were not chosen randomly but they are guys that use the same style of "handicapping" and "analysis" that I use (stats/math/sabermetric-based) and they study teams and games that I don't. 
8.  When a game I bet on is over - I check the final score to see if I won or lost for like 2-seconds and then I forget it and just dive into the stats of the game and see if my analysis was right or wrong.  Don't be results-oriented, be process-oriented.  I would MUCH RATHER lose a bet by 30 points than by 1 point.  Most of the numbnuts on this site place the value of a bet on how close it was to winning, don't be an idiot like them.  If I lose a game by 30, it becomes quite clear where my analysis went wrong and I can look at those angles and decide if they need to be adjusted or thrown out all together.  If its a "bad beat" or very close loss, I will try to talk myself into how right I was and how I was just "unlucky" and nothing can be more dangerous to a bankroll than always convincing yourself that you were "on the right side."  The more close beats you endure, they tougher it is to stay away from "tilt" or to just go crazy with the bankroll.  If I'm going to lose, I hope its by DD each and every time.

EARLY-SEASON BETTING PHILOSOPHY
1.  If there is a "good" time to bet HUGE favorites, its at the very beginning of the year and only when you can grab the line as soon as it comes out as it will most likely climb.  I might bet 10 games with a spread of 15+ in the first two weeks of the season and I might not bet even one the rest of the year.  This is the time where big favorites have value (in certain spots of course). 
2. DO YOUR HOMEWORK and follow your research.  If you study the WAC conference and your convinced San Jose St is even worse than they are projected to be (and that is bad), bet against them CONSISTENTLY over their first five to ten games until the lines makers adjust.  My biggest mistake last year was not following my gut about The Citadel last season.  I believed them to be one of the worst D1 college basketball teams in the country and made a 2-unit bet against them on the first game of the year against VMI.  Somehow, those suckies shot 45/52/78 and scored 100 points (and somehow still lost but covered).  I questioned my analysis and stayed away from that team for the rest of the month.  Of course, The Citadel did suck and ended up 2-6 ATS in their next eight and it turns out I was right and all I had to show for it was -2 units.   

Betting the beginning of a new college basketball season is simple: do your homework and follow the research and don't be discouraged by one negative result, be process-oriented and not results-oriented.

Good luck this season and please remember that we are all in this together
MichaelRocks PM MichaelRocks
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Posted: 10/24/2012 3:01:23 PM
good post....i definitely agree with you....I rarely bet on the major college basketball conferences....especially the big east  .....a lot of opportunities on the smaller conferences that are overlooked 
Harvey23 PM Harvey23
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Posted: 10/24/2012 8:49:20 PM
Great post as always KP, Let's make some cash this year. 
ManRam24 PM ManRam24
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Posted: 10/24/2012 9:06:57 PM
Sign me up for:

A, B, C

JD232 PM JD232
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Posted: 10/24/2012 9:22:00 PM
Nice post KP! 
LasVegasLord PM LasVegasLord
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Posted: 10/24/2012 9:25:53 PM
Great stuff.
zbmm PM zbmm
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Posted: 10/24/2012 9:42:06 PM
KP, another great post.  Thank you.
bense197969 PM bense197969
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Posted: 10/24/2012 10:26:00 PM
Good stuff Kine, great to see ya back for another profitable season of college hoops!! 
Reach PM Reach
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Posted: 10/26/2012 9:53:42 AM
Thank you for sharing your thoughts. You're writeups are an enjoyable read. Good luck this year.
Posted using a mobile device.
Reach PM Reach
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Posted: 10/26/2012 9:55:58 AM
No better person to tail for a, b, and c than Manram.
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DAnewguy PM DAnewguy
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Posted: 10/26/2012 7:11:04 PM
good read.....
Dledien21 PM Dledien21
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Posted: 10/26/2012 8:59:33 PM
Very good read KP. Seems like you are ahead of most with your system. BOL this season. I will be checking in on your threads often.


LVTruck PM LVTruck
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Posted: 10/26/2012 9:35:02 PM
JDubs800 PM JDubs800
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Posted: 10/27/2012 1:28:32 AM
Da Kine is Back and ready to go! Nice post. I too love to play the small conference teams and games. Feel oddmakers are not always in tune with these games. Look fwd to a good season again.
fupm PM fupm
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Posted: 10/27/2012 1:19:03 PM
KP is a beast....   
KineProfessor PM KineProfessor
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Posted: 10/28/2012 8:32:19 PM
Thanks guys, I'm going to start posting some pre-season thoughts on a few particular teams in this thread this week . . .
CoverLane PM CoverLane
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Posted: 10/29/2012 12:31:46 AM

can't wait for the season to begin
gastown PM gastown
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Posted: 10/29/2012 3:22:11 AM
One of the most beneficial threads I've ever viewed on covers. Well written. 

Do you post your plays/leans for NCAAB??   
knasty007 PM knasty007
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Posted: 10/29/2012 3:55:40 PM
nice... u are right on...mid tenn st. again this season....there good
rosshuff PM rosshuff
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Posted: 10/29/2012 5:25:06 PM
I love it!! Following all season.
hammertime360 PM hammertime360
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Posted: 10/29/2012 5:43:20 PM
BWS77 PM BWS77
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Posted: 10/29/2012 6:38:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KineProfessor:

 
2. DO YOUR HOMEWORK and follow your research.  If you study the WAC conference and your convinced San Jose St is even worse than they are projected to be (and that is bad), bet against them CONSISTENTLY over their first five to ten games until the lines makers adjust.  My biggest mistake last year was not following my gut about The Citadel last season.  I believed them to be one of the worst D1 college basketball teams in the country and made a 2-unit bet against them on the first game of the year against VMI.  Somehow, those suckies shot 45/52/78 and scored 100 points (and somehow still lost but covered).  I questioned my analysis and stayed away from that team for the rest of the month.  Of course, The Citadel did suck and ended up 2-6 ATS in their next eight and it turns out I was right and all I had to show for it was -2 units.   

Betting the beginning of a new college basketball season is simple: do your homework and follow the research and don't be discouraged by one negative result, be process-oriented and not results-oriented.

Good luck this season and please remember that we are all in this together

Excellent point.   Last year USC was that team for me.  I was so sad when their season ended.  
EMaynor PM EMaynor
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Posted: 10/29/2012 6:41:45 PM
KP, great post my friend 

One question--
You mentioned that you never watch your bets, and you normally stay away from bigger conferences. I agree with both those statements. How do you obtain information from those mid-major conference teams in which games aren't televised? I've always viewed that as a double-edged sword because the teams I am most familiar with as the season rolls on are the ones that are on TV the most.

Just curious on how you watch these teams, or at least gather information to help make your wager selections 
Absolutxedge22 PM Absolutxedge22
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Posted: 10/29/2012 9:12:42 PM
ryno23 PM ryno23
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Posted: 10/29/2012 9:18:42 PM

hello Mr Professor:

hope your year is going well. thanks for the post, ur knowledge has helped me immensly the last 5 yrs. i am excited for the comming year. since heeding your posts...analysis and advice, the last two years i have become very profitable and have put money in my pocket finally. i just wanted to thank you and the help you bring to the forum....ryno

btw...utsa has gottn alot of ink for their football team i see this year.

 

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