Do "trap lines" really exist?

Question

After watching the first three rounds of the NCAA tournament, I was asking myself........do "trap lines" really exist? Afterall, Vegas and other online sports books just don't give away money right? This has indeed been a question of mine ever since I started betting on sports four years ago.

I know that many people swear they are out there, but I for one have never bought into this concept. The first full weekend of games delivered some very fishy lines in the eyes of the public bettor, but if you had Georgetown -3 over Belmont on Friday,or Xavier -4 over Lehigh last night, you would have had two easy winners right in front of you. What about Marquette only laying 5.5 points against BYU in a game that they ended up winning by twenty. On Thursday, I was told by another covers member that Murray State -5.5 over Colorado State was the "sucker bet" of the day. I then proceeded to sift through the NCAA Basketball forum only to find a majority of guys on the Rams of Colorado State +5.5 in that game. Of course, this had me second guessing my Murray State play. Well, the Racers ended up winning that game by 17, so I guess the only "sucker" in this case were the lines makers.

I know that I am speaking in hindsight here, and that I can also give plenty of examples where the public bettor has been unofficially "trapped", but I strongly believe that us sports bettors put too much thought and stock into what is a trap and what isn't. Any pick against the spread in any sport is difficult. If we as sports bettors can find a spot where we believe the lines makers have "slipped up", it should be our duty to take full advantage. Isn't that the whole concept of handicapping a game anyways? All thoughts on this interesting and debatable subject are welcomed and looked forward to. Thanks for listening.

drivetime · Answer

After watching the first three rounds of the NCAA tournament, I was asking myself........do "trap lines" really exist? Afterall, Vegas and other online sports books just don't give away money right? This has indeed been a question of mine ever since I started betting on sports four years ago.

I know that many people swear they are out there, but I for one have never bought into this concept. The first full weekend of games delivered some very fishy lines in the eyes of the public bettor, but if you had Georgetown -3 over Belmont on Friday,or Xavier -4 over Lehigh last night, you would have had two easy winners right in front of you. What about Marquette only laying 5.5 points against BYU in a game that they ended up winning by twenty. On Thursday, I was told by another covers member that Murray State -5.5 over Colorado State was the "sucker bet" of the day. I then proceeded to sift through the NCAA Basketball forum only to find a majority of guys on the Rams of Colorado State +5.5 in that game. Of course, this had me second guessing my Murray State play. Well, the Racers ended up winning that game by 17, so I guess the only "sucker" in this case were the lines makers.

I know that I am speaking in hindsight here, and that I can also give plenty of examples where the public bettor has been unofficially "trapped", but I strongly believe that us sports bettors put too much thought and stock into what is a trap and what isn't. Any pick against the spread in any sport is difficult. If we as sports bettors can find a spot where we believe the lines makers have "slipped up", it should be our duty to take full advantage. Isn't that the whole concept of handicapping a game anyways? All thoughts on this interesting and debatable subject are welcomed and looked forward to. Thanks for listening.

Laroja · Answer

If you believe that the oddsmakers know the correct outcome of games then "trap lines" exist. If you don&#x27;t then they don&#x27;t exist. It&#x27;s all about perception.

Jmt908 · Answer

xaveir was not that fishy...they pulled away at the end after being  down in the game, i think by as many as 15 at one  point

shark_apreza · Answer

Norfolk &#x2B;14.5  was a sucker-bet or trap line, after that win over mizzou---FLorida giving 14pts to Norfolk--many people beleive it was  gift---but instead it was a total blow outso yes there are traplines

beaverfan23 · Answer

They don&#x27;t slip up.  Especially in the NCAA tournament

215Hustler · Answer

&#xD;&#xA;Well said

ShadowWarrior · Answer

The books will want the betting to balance out southey win no matter the outcome.  But when money starts to be an imbalance to one side, then they may need to trap or be in danger of covering a losing bet.  I have heard of books trying to deceive when the team that is being bet on, they move the line making you think the less favored team is the favorite.  Like the poster above stated, it is all about perception.  If you win, there are no traps or you at least saw the trap.

drivetime · Answer

So you are trying to tell me that the Georgetown Hoyas are only 3 points better than the Belmont Bruins on a neutral floor?  I think the lines makers fucked up royally on that line!!  Again, hindsight.

fsutomahawk · Answer

There are fishy looking lines, but no such things as trap lines. If you really think the oddsmaker knew the results of game then they would be on the other side of the counter.

tinoker55 · Answer

I dont believe That they set up TRAP lines, BUT i do believe they know where to set the line to sway us one way or another because they definitely have more information about the game then we ever will.

iaathgtsl · Answer

traplines=uconn(-2) vs. iowa st........nuff said. cause it happens every year where the defending national champ loses in the first round to a team whos best known name on the squad belongs to their coach, right???

Laroja · Answer

Agreed, books want 50/50 action so they win no matter what because of the juice.

beaverfan23 · Answer

Yes.  Kenpom has Gtwon ranked 12th and belmont 23rd in the country and predicted Gtown to win the game by 2.  Sagarin has Gtown ranked 13th and Belmont ranked 35th and had Gtown predicted to win by 4.  It looked like a strange line because of the tournament seeding.No one could&#x27;ve predicted Georgetown to shoot 61% from the floor.Now thats not to say there are no "trap" lines.  The question is, who are they trapping?  Someone who has not been following NCAAB all season long would look at that line and think easy money, but someone who has followed all year would know that Belmont is great team with tournament experience.If the lines makers would&#x27;ve released a line like -7 for that game they would get crushed by sharp money more often than not

KillerKardoogan · Answer

OMG!!!!!!&#xD;&#xA;TRAPS ARE EVERYWHERE!!!!!!!!!!!!&#xD;&#xA;IN FACT, THIS THREAD IS A TRAP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!&#xD;&#xA;JUST BY OPENING IT YOU&#x27;VE CAUSED DOUBLE-REVERSE LINE MOVEMENT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!&#xD;&#xA;!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

JBecks12 · Answer

They expected FL to dominate the game by 17&#x2B;, but &#x2B;14 was high enough to get bets on Norfolk and given how close most games are at the moment, public would easily fall into the trap just sweet enough to create a one sided party for books.

JEG53 · Answer

Flor.St-2,won ACC,beat UNC-Duke and then only -2 against Cinn.,same with Ohio+2 against S.Flor.,a team that held Cal to 13 points in FH,I took Cinn.and Ohio just because I thought the line was to low,
bad thing was I didnt hit them hard,

which I could of used after the worst week in a long time.

JEG53 · Answer

I did fall for Norfolk also,saw 165 thread in PB,he took Flor.FH and game,his point was they were still in the clouds after that Mizz.win,to bad I saw it after the game started,I didnt factor that in and he was right on the mark,when they came down they were down 25

depbmoc · Answer

Tinoker , i believe you have explained it the best. Line makers are pretty darn good at setting points and they certainly have more info than 99 %of us .

pinoy1da · Answer

I move lines. traps dont phaze me lol

Matt3174 · Answer

I think that is what a trap line is.  Obviously not all of them hit but when you see 65%&#x2B; on a team and line moves opposite the books know something and/or sharps.

detroitlionsfan · Answer

trap lines are like bigfoot some believe others dont

rated91 · Answer

Trap lines do exist. Anytime you see a spread of 3, 7, or 10 in a football game it&#x27;s a trap line. The books know a half point in either direction will put them out of business so they play it safe on something that will most likely push.

tinoker55 · Answer

If you do your&#x27;e research correctly and cap the game right, there is no reason why you shouldnt get at least 80% of the info they have..

badlands · Answer

trap line in websters dictionary is defined as

1) an excuse for someone who picked the wrong side and needs an excuse as to how a good team could ever lose or not blow out a lesser team (the fact they are human beings never crosses the gamblers mind)

2) a reason for someone s bet on a game they know nothing about. they say oh fuck it this seems to easy im gonna fade the trap! then the favorite blows the lesser team out and now they really dont know what to say.

kdawgy · Answer

I think the answer is: in a way.

What I think you have to realize is that the oddsmakers have more information than anyone. Not only do they usually have a really good handle on what the most likely outcome will be, but they also have a very good idea of what the public perception is.

As a result, they are obviously going to skew the lines a little bit to the public's disadvantage. This is not only a profitable strategy in general, but it keeps them from being badly burned by setting too short of a line.

It's similar to a local that knows what you're going to bet and moves the line a point or so in his favor. Happens all the time.

Do "trap lines" really exist?

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