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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: NCAA 2nd Round
andarmac99 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
andarmac99
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#1
Posted: 3/17/2012 3:51:50 PM
VCU +6

This team is basically an auto-bet as a dog. We all know how good they were last year as dogs and this year they are 4-0 ATS as pk or dogs. They are a gritty squad, that plays tough defense, are smart, and well-coached. Those types of teams are rarely out of games and VCU is no exception. They haven't lost a game by more than 6 points since November 27th - and they still covered that game.

I'm not sold on Indiana. They can be soft at times and while they are an excellent offensive team, their D leaves a lot to be desired. VCU is a good team defensively that can limit the Hoosiers offense. They have only given up 29% from 3 since the start of conference play which is big because Indiana is excellent from behind the arc. VCU also forces almost 18 turnovers a game with their pressure. VCU with more experience and the potential to limit Indiana from 3 and force TO's = a gritty game where they hang tough.


Iowa State +6.5 (1st half)

Another team that will just not go down easily. Iowa State has only lost one game all year by more than this spread. They are 9-4 ATS as dogs this year and tend to come out strong in this role as they've gone 11-3 ATS and 11-3 SU in the 1st half of games as a dog.

Everyone seems scared to bet against Kentucky because of the talent, potential, and ability to dominate when they are on. Unfortunately everyone and his dog knows this and as a result they have been horribly overpriced all season. Their ATS record is pathetic and from a market perspective they are easily the most overrated team in this tournament. Kentucky was exceptionally sloppy in the 2nd half against WKU and that's something that can carry over to the 1st half here, especially with a young team that has started sloppy many times this season.


Colorado +7.5

Simply taking a team that is red hot right now and has come together as a group and playing great basketball. This group believes in each other right now. Baylor on the other hand is still an enigma. Yes, they have talent but they rarely play up to their potential or play smart basketball. They seem to play down to their competition and man are they soft. They should have crushed SDS as they killed them on the glass and SDS consisted of 5 small white guys who threw up 60% of their shots from 3. Yes they pushed or covered by half a point. Screwing around against SDS will not prepare them for stepping up against Colorado. Baylor may have more talent but I will take the better overall team. The Buffs are also 12-6 ATS as pups this year = playing up to competition and staying in games.


New Mexico +1.5

Bad matchup for Louisville here. The Cards have a great defense but New Mexico is not very far behind. However the Lobos are much better offensively and on the glass. Louisville is rolling at 5-0 SU & ATS but so is New Mexico are 6-0 SU & ATS. Louisville did win the BE tourney but I think they got an easy ride. They didn't have to play Georgetown or Syracuse and they beat a Marquette team that I don't think really cared. Marquette came into that game winning 13 of 15 and looking ready for the tourney while Louisville had lost 3 of 4, who wanted that game more to get ready for the tourney? Louisville went 0-4 vs Syracuse, Marquette and Georgetown in the regular season who I felt were the best teams in a very down year for that conference.

Love the way NM plays. They are tough, can defend, can score, and hit the boards. I think they are better than Louisville and should be favored.


GL.
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nepatriots_12 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#2
Posted: 3/17/2012 4:41:15 PM
Nice to see you back buddy...how did Round 1 treat ya?

VCU seems like a public dog, but def can't go against them here. Like Iowa State, underrated team and think they hang in there. Lean Colorado but torn on the New Mexico game.

Good luck bud


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Skanless1 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#3
Posted: 3/17/2012 4:42:09 PM
NM!!
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165yds
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165yds
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#4
Posted: 3/17/2012 5:20:43 PM
Always great too see one of the few strong minds posting here.  Iowa State could get run out of the building very easily.  GL.
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GWarner27
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#5
Posted: 3/17/2012 5:32:36 PM
with ya on VCU, likely on UNM too as I have them in all my brackets
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andarmac99 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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Posted: 3/17/2012 5:40:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nepatriots_12:

Nice to see you back buddy...how did Round 1 treat ya?

VCU seems like a public dog, but def can't go against them here. Like Iowa State, underrated team and think they hang in there. Lean Colorado but torn on the New Mexico game.

Good luck bud




Hey nice to see you buddy. I didn't play much in Round 1, been extremely busy and just didn't have time to look at much. Hit Iowa State and GT and lost with NM ST.

My favorite plays tonight are actually in the NBA. I have Charlotte +2 & ML and Denver -7. The Raptors have no business being road favs against anyone. Especially in this spot playing their 4th road game in 5 days off a huge OT win. They have also been really bad offensively after scoring 100+ points going 1-5 ATS (lone cover as a 16 pt dog) and averaging 88.5 PPG. I think Charlotte wins this game easily. While I don't like the idea in general of laying points to a good team off a bad loss I just think the spot is too tough for Boston to overcome. They weren't a good road team anyway but these old guys playing b2b in altitude off a west coast game spells disaster, especially against a Nuggets team that is off a bad home loss and will look to push it. Boston has 3 big conference games left on this trip and I think they save up for them and get blown out again tonight.


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andarmac99 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
andarmac99
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Posted: 3/17/2012 5:43:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 165yds:

Always great too see one of the few strong minds posting here.  Iowa State could get run out of the building very easily.  GL.


True. I can actually see them getting worn down in the 2nd half but they are a strong 1H team and I like them to be in it at the break. Kentucky just hasn't crushed teams like everyone thinks they do. Their ATS record is abysmal.

GL.
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nbafan88 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
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#8
Posted: 3/17/2012 5:47:54 PM
Hope you know Toronto couldn't travel overnight and made the trip to Charlotte today. Straight to the stadium 
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#9
Posted: 3/17/2012 6:02:54 PM
Always some of the best writeups on covers.
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nepatriots_12 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#10
Posted: 3/17/2012 6:03:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by andarmac99:



Hey nice to see you buddy. I didn't play much in Round 1, been extremely busy and just didn't have time to look at much. Hit Iowa State and GT and lost with NM ST.

My favorite plays tonight are actually in the NBA. I have Charlotte +2 & ML and Denver -7. The Raptors have no business being road favs against anyone. Especially in this spot playing their 4th road game in 5 days off a huge OT win. They have also been really bad offensively after scoring 100+ points going 1-5 ATS (lone cover as a 16 pt dog) and averaging 88.5 PPG. I think Charlotte wins this game easily. While I don't like the idea in general of laying points to a good team off a bad loss I just think the spot is too tough for Boston to overcome. They weren't a good road team anyway but these old guys playing b2b in altitude off a west coast game spells disaster, especially against a Nuggets team that is off a bad home loss and will look to push it. Boston has 3 big conference games left on this trip and I think they save up for them and get blown out again tonight.




awesome, I was already on Denver and strongly leaning Bobcats, think you might have sucked me in. Bobcats already beat this team once, with how rare they're wins have been this year, I think they give a max effort here knowing they can beat this squad.

Also gonna be on the Hornets.
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