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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: NCAA Bracket Breakdown
SettleDownSpaz send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 3/12/2012 1:14:17 PM

Did something similar for the conference tournaments, so thought I'd keep it going for the Big Dance.  This will not contain any picks on individual games, but rather only contain future wagers.  Basically, just an initial (and refreshed) look at the brackets and who I think makes it to NO, who I think stumbles, who surprises, etc. etc. 

Again, this is an initial view, so certainly things will change over the next few days.  Let's kick things off out in the East region..

East

From what I've seen and read to this point, it seems the talk has been about one of either Syracuse, Florida State and Vanderbilt coming out of the East.  I think when when we hit the Elite 8, at least one of the top 4 seeds will not be there, and I think it's one of the teams people seem to be favoring.

Who I think will win?  Ohio State

This team is built to make a deep tournament run and I think the loss to Michigan State in the Big 10 final is a humbling one, and one where it gets the Buckeyes back in focus.  They are more polished than any of the other top seeds, and while the others do things better than tOSU, overall, I think the Buckeyes have potential to cause more problems for the rest of the region than anyone else.  Syracuse is good, real good.  They're road to the Final Four will be tough, not because the teams they are playing have more talent, but because they play a style that will frustrate the Orange, both offensively and defensively.  I like Vandy a lot and I see some shades of Uconn from last year with Jenkins being Kemba.  He can take over a game just like Walker did.  Supporting cast around him might be better than what Kemba had last year.  Florida State is good, but I'm not overly sold on them.  They might have hurt themselves by winning the ACC tournament as I don't think they are consistent enough to win 9 games in a row.  Currently on a 5 game winning streak, would need four wins to get to the Final Four.  I don't see that happening. 

Which top seed wil stumble?  Florida State

Most of the reasons are above, but while you can't deny how they play defense , I don't think they are good enough to consistently beat solid teams.  This is a Seminole team that lost to BC, Miami FL, Clemson by 20 and Princeton.  They got a Duke team without Kelly and a UNC team whose coach doesn't care about the conf tourney.  Not taking anything away from them, but I think they will disappoint the people who have them going deep.

Who is the Cinderella?  Texas

They don't have the most favorable matchups, but they do get two teams who over-achieved down the stretch.  Rick Barnes has done a fantastic job this season at Texas and I think they are better suited as a team nobody thinks will do well.  From a talent perspective, I think they are on par with every team in their pod.  They won't make it to NO, but I think they can win some games.

How will it play out?

2nd round - Cuse vs. So Miss, Vandy vs. Montana, Texas vs. Fla State, Gonzaga vs. Ohio State

Sweet 16 - Cuse vs. Vandy, Texas vs. Ohio State

Elite 8 - Ohio State beats Vandy

 

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Posted: 3/12/2012 2:59:11 PM

Midwest

Probably my least favorite region, mostly because I'm not overly thrilled with the 3 through 6 seeds.  The two teams (Creighton and St. Mary's) from this region I liked entering the tournament have potential third round matchups vs. UNC and Kansas. 

Who I think will win?  North Carolina

I think their toughest game before the regional final is vs the winner of the 8/9 game as I don't see anyone in the other pod competing in any way vs. UNC in the Sweet 16.  For the most part, UNC has underachieved all year, which is hard to say given they are a #1 seed.  I think this team is better than they have performed all year and the Midwest region might be walking into a buzzsaw.  Injuries have riddled the Tarheels for parts of the year, but assuming the main weapons are in the lineup, this team is exceptional.  And I don't think they get overly tested before the Regional Final. 

Which top seed might stumble?  Temple

I'm not as high on Temple as other folks, and it's not a disrespect, as I think they are good.  I just don't think they are as good as in years past and I don't think they are good enough to get our of the third round.  In fact, I think they lose in the second round.

Who is the Cinderella?  Saint Mary's

I thought I'd see them as a 6 and away from the # seed, but that didn't play out.  Tough first round matchup with Purdue, but I think they get by them and face a Kansas team that won't rattle them at all.  I think the Jayhawks are in for a fight in their opening round game, which is just what the Gaels can take advantage of should they meet Kansas.  St. Mary's doesn't make many mistakes, so an early jump on the Jayhawks could be trouble for the 2 seed. 

How will it play out?

2nd Round - UNC vs. Creighton, Cal vs. Michigan, San Diego State vs. Belmont, St Mary's vs. Kansas

Sweet 16 - UNC vs. Michigan, San Diego State vs. St Mary's

Elite 8 - UNC over St. Mary's

 

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#3
Posted: 3/12/2012 3:55:10 PM
Like your Midwest bracket..about the same for me
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#4
Posted: 3/12/2012 4:15:28 PM
Good writeups.  Personally, my cinderella is Harvard.  It just seems like fate that they make a run in the tournament.  I mean, just look at all the signs of destiny: This year they win their first ever Ivy League title and go to the tournament for the first time in 66 years.  Coincidentally, this is the same year of Linsanity, who put Harvard Basketball on the map.  To top it all off, Harvard is a damn great team.


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Posted: 3/12/2012 7:01:34 PM
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Posted: 3/12/2012 7:10:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SettleDownSpaz:



Who is the Cinderella?  Texas

They don't have the most favorable matchups, but they do get two teams who over-achieved down the stretch.  Rick Barnes has done a fantastic job this season at Texas and I think they are better suited as a team nobody thinks will do well.  From a talent perspective, I think they are on par with every team in their pod.  They won't make it to NO, but I think they can win some games.

I think the rest of your analysis is right, but what have you seen from Texas that makes you think they won't lose by 10 to Cincy?

Texas didn't play well down the stretch. They got beat soundly by Mizzou, got lucky cause Iowa St collapsed before that. Plus, at the end of the regular season they didn't look great.

Cincy, on the other hand, has been on fire. That Louisville game was an aberation, the shots just weren't falling that night. This team can shoot the 3 ball almost as well as Missouri. They run a similar 4-1 offensive set as Missouri, they just don't run at near the pace Missouri does...if Texas couldn't contain Mizzou, how can they contain Cincy?

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#7
Posted: 3/12/2012 8:26:56 PM

qbbearcat - good stuff. thanks buddy.

robby - I actually can see that playing out and then seeing ESPN blowing it up

docterd - thanks buddy

wtfe - Texas has losses to UNC, Baylor twice, Missouri and Kansas thrice, then decent losses vs. NC St, Oregon St., Iowa State and Kansas State. Then a bad loss @ Okie Light.  Cincy has a few bad losses, but also some good losses.  The good aren't as good as Texas and the bad are a bit worse.  Both teams are athletic and no glaring advantage in FG shooting, but what stands out to me is the FT shooting.  Texas is a very good FT shooting team and gets there a lot and Cincy is not.   

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#8
Posted: 3/12/2012 11:36:39 PM
Great information
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#9
Posted: 3/12/2012 11:42:00 PM

South

Kentucky should get to the Elite 8 with no issus, but big emphasis on should.  I'm not high on Duke in this region, both on their own merit and their potential matchups.  I think the door is wide open in the bottom half of the bracket.

Who I think will win? Kentucky

I have a few teams not named Kentucky that are worth a shot to get to NO, but Kentucky is good. Real good. And if they come to play, they should get there.  Value is all around this region and certainly worth a shot.

Which top seed might stumble?  Duke and Baylor

Don't get me wrong.  Both can make it to the Final four, but both could also be gone before they win two games. The potential 3rd round matchup between UNLV vs. Baylor should be a good one.  And Duke gets a potential tough one vs. either ND or Xavier. 

Who is the Cinderella?  Xavier

A dark shadow has been cast on both Xavier and Holloway all season.  Holloway was primed for a big tournament last year and things didn't work out at all.  Now another shot and a chance to shed some light on a somewhat bleek season.  Xavier got it going in the A10 tournament and they could be a tough out here as well

How will it play out?

2nd Round - Kentucky vs. Iowa State, Wichita State vs. Indiana, UNLV vs. Baylor, Xavier vs.Duke

Sweet 16 - Kentucky vs. Wichita State, UNLV vs. Xavier

Elite 8 - Kentucky over UNLV

 

 

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#10
Posted: 3/12/2012 11:46:57 PM
great analysis, spazzy!

there's still time for me to make changes to my brackets.
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Posted: 3/12/2012 11:55:00 PM

2020dr - thanks

West

Who I think will win? Missouri

I think they might get tripped in round 3 or the Sweet 16, but will get by whoever they face. As this team moves on, they will get stronger and stronger and more difficult to take down.  They will benefit by not seeing the top seed in the Regional Finals

Which top seed might stumble?  Everyone, but Missouri

I think Michigan State, Marquette and Louisville have potential matchups problems throughout this region.  I really like MSU, but I'm not convinced they can win four straight with the potential opponents they will see.

Who is the Cinderella?  Iona

The Gaels are extremely explosive and they have enough size and athleticism to matchup with teams from the Power Conferences.  It's unfortunate they have to participate in the play-in game, but arguably they shouldn't even be in the brackets.  They don't seem to tire and if they get rolling, they could make a very deep run in this tournament.

How will it play out?

2nd Round - Michigan State vs. Saint Louis, New Mexico vs. Louisville, Murray State vs. Iona, Virginia vs. Missouri

Sweet 16 - Saint Louis vs. New Mexico, Iona vs. Missouri

Elite 8 - Missouri over New Mexico

 

 

 

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#12
Posted: 3/13/2012 12:13:53 AM
Not a surprise to me that we have the exact Final Four - (1) Kentucky, (1) UNC, (2) Missouri, (2) Ohio State


Excellent write-ups as usual, Spaz. I like your "Which Top Seed Will Stumble" and I agree with most, except for FSU. The Seminoles have tons and tons of momentum and mojo on their side. We both know those conference tourny winners carry their mojo throughout the big dance, and I think FSU is one of them, but they will trip up -vs- the Ohio State University...

And my Cinderallas for the tournament = New Mexico State, Iona, and I agree with you on Texas, too. I also like Harvard, but can Vandy actually be upset by a double in their opening game for the 4th time in 5 years? IDK - but I'm all over the +6.5 for Harvard...


We need a big win from Iona tomorrow night Spazzer - looking forward to this thread until opening tip. I'll be on PC tomorrow - rocking the iPhone right now...


I may even have my own March Madness thread up in here, too.


SPAZ OUT

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#13
Posted: 3/13/2012 12:22:04 AM
good stuff spaz, I agree with you. Mich St stumbles sometime before the final four
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#14
Posted: 3/13/2012 1:20:12 AM
niice info my friend..................i see a lot of people on unlv to go deep....i just dont know....they havent proved to me enough they can win consistently away from home....i dont doubt their talent....just dont know if i can back them to go real deep......gl
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#15
Posted: 3/13/2012 2:29:39 AM
thanks for posting all this, really useful, I'm tryin to get all caught up for bracket pool and some potentially small action plays 
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#16
Posted: 3/13/2012 3:45:29 AM

I'm not well versed in College Basketball at all, but I heard the CBS people ripping Iona apart saying they didn't deserve to get in etc. 

Do you Iona is the type of talented team to prove people wrong or do you think they are like the Cincinatti Bengals of the NFL this year who backed in and knew they were a complete fraud before getting whipped by the Texans.  Just wondering what your thoughts were on this.

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#17
Posted: 3/13/2012 5:23:26 AM

Iona reminds me of last years vcu, be careful with unlv, marshal kid may be on the take. frank.

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#18
Posted: 3/13/2012 12:49:35 PM

Great views and best of luck to you

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Posted: 3/13/2012 9:44:58 PM

kktdoc, billyweather, Frank, jimmag - thank fellas

GiL - thanks buddy.  I need to dig into FlaSt a lot more, but my fraud sensor is up. I think this forum needs a GiLmo thread. 

indiansrock - thanks. you raise a valid point on UNLV's road struggles.

mtbaker - thanks buddy, appreciate it. Iona in years past cast a shadow of being lazy.  This years team's three best players are two seniors and a junior transfer from Arizona. All are tough and hard working.  They should have a chip on their shoulder hearing they don't belong

Going to post some future wagers during the Iona-BYU game..

 

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#20
Posted: 3/13/2012 9:52:18 PM


knock em out man
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#21
Posted: 3/13/2012 10:11:08 PM
Texas . That Cincy lines looks very shady!
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#22
Posted: 3/14/2012 5:34:23 AM
If Marshal is getting paid UNLV wont cover thats for sure, the story will be broke soon.
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#23
Posted: 3/14/2012 6:35:33 AM

Ret, Lambo - thanks guys. 

Will be adding throughout the day and tonight..

Mountain West OVER 3.5 wins (6 units to win 6)

Baylor -110 wins over Wisonsin (7.4 units to win 7.05)

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Posted: 3/14/2012 6:35:52 AM
would watch out for unlv.  they havent been playing well and have been outscored in the 2nd half in 7 out of last 10 games.  conditioning issues.
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#25
Posted: 3/15/2012 1:49:33 AM

Xavier -120 wins over San Diego State (6.8 units to win 6.48)

And some regional futures:

Vanderbilt (East) +800 (1 unit to win 8)

New Mexico (West) +800 (1 unit to win 8)

 

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