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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Underdog- Ranked team vs Unranked home team
semperfi19 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
semperfi19
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#1
Posted: 2/28/2012 3:15:14 PM
No. 13 Florida goes to Nashville tonight to play the unranked Commodores as a 3.5 pt underdog.  I don't have any statistical data to illustrate my point but it always seems the ranked team losses and does not cover in these siutations.  Only unfortuante thing here is that Florida just laid an egg 3 days ago in Georgia and lost by 15 as a 7.5 road fav. and should be focused.  I had pointed to this spot as good play on Vandy but with the Florida loss over the weekend I think the 3.5 or 4 might be too much for Vandy.  I welcome anyone's thoughts on this game. 
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#2
Posted: 2/28/2012 3:22:10 PM

my thought is florida is highly overrated , and is garbage on the road , they can be as focused as they want tonight i do not see them stayin with in this number.  vandy is a tuff place to play , kentucky almost lost there , florida cannot be to confident coming into this game just getting drubbed by georgia , this game could be worse .

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Posted: 2/28/2012 3:47:57 PM
Last year, Florida beat up Vandy on the road...The way Florida can shoot it...maybe this is a repeat of last year.
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semperfi19 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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Posted: 2/29/2012 10:34:48 AM

Vandy covers..Let's look at tonight.

#7 Marquette goes to Cincy and is getting 1.5 in the Queen City. Play would be CIncy -1.5.  Will handicap it later.  

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Posted: 2/29/2012 2:11:16 PM
No body is hotter than Marquette winning on the road the last two  at UCONN and WVA.   I think this is a good spot for a letdown with Georgetown and revenge up next for MQ.  Speaking of revenge the Bearcats are looking to revenge their worst road loss of the seaon at MQ.   I think the situation spot favors the Bear cats and the home crowd should be enough for the outright win 77-71.     
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Posted: 2/29/2012 2:37:49 PM

Did some quick looking for the month of FEB. here are teh results of a top 25 team getiing points on the road vs an UNRANKED team.

2/9   GONZAGA - 3.5    vs  #13 St. Mary's    73-59   WIN

2/14 Clemson -2  vs  #22 Virgina                 60- 48   WIN

2/18 New Mexico -4.5 vs #11UNLV             65-45     WIN

2/23  Cincy -2  vs  #17Louisville                  60-56    WIN

2/26  Miami  -1 vs  #16 FSU                       78-62    WIN

2/25  Minn -1.5  vs.  #24 Indy                      50-69   Loss

2/28  Vandy  -3.5   vs #13  Fla                    77-67    WIN

6-1 for Feb.   Not bad. Not a bgi fan of systems, more of a situational capper and line movement type capper but this is very interesting.  I did not come up with so do not jump me for copying because I did see this on a thread somewhere.  Just some info do with it as you will.   

Let's make it 7 -1 tonight!

 

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Posted: 2/29/2012 3:09:55 PM

That list is pretty incomplete. Just looking at the single day 2/18 there were other games.....

#21 FSU +2 @ NC ST.  FSU wins by 14

#13 Marquette +3 @ UCONN  Marquette wins by 15

And that's just looking at the first three examples I saw including the New Mexico game which was a winner. I stopped looking after that. Its' an angle that's 50-50

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ATLGettinPaper
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Posted: 2/29/2012 3:51:13 PM
i'm on Cincy tonight...  fits this model too. 
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semperfi19 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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Posted: 2/29/2012 4:37:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kkirby99:

That list is pretty incomplete. Just looking at the single day 2/18 there were other games.....

#21 FSU +2 @ NC ST.  FSU wins by 14

#13 Marquette +3 @ UCONN  Marquette wins by 15

And that's just looking at the first three examples I saw including the New Mexico game which was a winner. I stopped looking after that. Its' an angle that's 50-50

You are right I missed those 2 thanks for the catch...I will verify to see If i missed more...That's 6-3...still 67%...

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#10
Posted: 2/29/2012 4:44:51 PM
You also missed Baylor getting points at Texas and missed Michigan getting points at Northwestern. BOL 
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#11
Posted: 2/29/2012 4:48:55 PM
The ranked teams in those instances won outright. 
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semperfi19 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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Posted: 2/29/2012 5:03:41 PM

I missed a few more you are right.  saw 4 more so it is actually less than 50/50. WTF was I looking at the first time I checked.  

 

NEVER MIND......

 

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Posted: 2/29/2012 5:10:39 PM
Semper no worries this is what the board is for, to help one another on information
Posted using a mobile device.
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Posted: 2/29/2012 5:15:04 PM
This angle has hit 45% so far this year. Awful. In past year's, it has been 60%+
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#15
Posted: 2/29/2012 5:16:38 PM
marquette was +1 to west va this last weekend
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semperfi19 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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Posted: 2/29/2012 8:24:42 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by ZonaCats:

This angle has hit 45% so far this year. Awful. In past year's, it has been 60%+

That's what I remebered, around 60%, looks like Cincy is trying to get it closer to 50%.  Great start  

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#17
Posted: 2/29/2012 8:26:04 PM
i think its more about away team vs home team than ranked vs unranked...
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semperfi19 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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Posted: 2/29/2012 9:06:05 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by DAnewguy:

i think its more about away team vs home team than ranked vs unranked...

 

Absolutely agree.

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Posted: 3/1/2012 8:35:05 AM

Two games today to look at... Let the converstion begin. 

#22 FSU +4  at Virgina

#16 Michigan +1.5  at Illinois

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Posted: 3/23/2012 10:13:40 AM

Hey Semperfi are you going to do underdog chase series in MLB this year . You were killing it there for a while . It cooled off but I don`t know why you stopped .

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