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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Conference Tournament Primer
SettleDownSpaz send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 2/27/2012 6:06:34 PM

I absolutely love this time of year.. Going to use this thread for my confernece tournament predictions and future bets.  Individual games will be included in a separate daily thread.

My official plays will be in bold and I'll add either before the tournament or possibly during.  Much of this will be leans and predictions, so not an official play until bolded.

Big South

I'll start by saying I have no interest in either of the two opening round games tonight.  And I'll add that I don't think any of the four teams playing tonight make any sort of noise in this tournament.  UNC-Asheville is the # 1 seed and they'll benefit from that by hosting games until they are eliminated.  As indicated earlier, I think both top two seeds reach the semifinals, but both will be challenged by their semifinal opponent, whoever that turns out to be.  I expect myself to be on the dogs in both semifinal round matches.

Predicted Winner : Coastal Carolina +450

Struggled down the stretch, but have quality wins over Power Conference teams this year in LSU and Clemson.  They shoot the ball extremely well and will be a tough out even if they need to go on the road in the finals.  I think NC-Asheville will find themselves in a tough matchup come the semis.  If they don't exit there, they will in the finals.

Darkhorse Winner : Campbell +1000

Odd my darkhorse is lined up to play my projected winner, but I think it comes down to one of these teams in the finals, so I'll stick with that projection. 

Potential Upsets : Liberty over Charleston Southern, either over NC-Asheville

Be back with the Horzion later on tonight..

 

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#2
Posted: 2/27/2012 8:16:58 PM

Thanks for the write-up...looking forward to the rest!

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#3
Posted: 2/27/2012 8:44:49 PM
well spaz my pick is UNC-Asheville. I'm glad someone made a thread about the conference tourneys
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#4
Posted: 2/27/2012 9:51:06 PM

crocnzeeba - thanks buddy, lots more to get too.

packers1992 - would like to hear your thoughts on UNC-Asheville if you have time.  Make sure I'm not missing anything and give others things to consider

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#5
Posted: 2/27/2012 10:08:19 PM

Horizon

No disrespect to the Big South, but there is sure to be more action and anticpation for the Horizon league.  Valpo and Cleveland State received the double byes into the semifinals.  A down year for Butler, a below expectation year for Detroit, but the top seeds earned their byes.  That being said, I think one of them misses the finals and I wouldn't be even the slightest bit surprised if they both miss.  Valpo has home court in the semis and while they have 10 of 12 in conference, it's the same team who won 6 games by a combined 24 points.  Yes, a win is a win, but things change in a one and done format.  I like this Cleveland State team, but unfortunately they sit on the side as the team who I think wins this tournament.

Predicted Winner : Detroit +600

Almost should be a dark horse at this value, but they are the 3 seed and thanks to oddsmakers for giving Butler name recognition.  I don't see anything but a semi final matchup with Detroit vs. Cleveland State and I think one of these teams gets the automatic bid. 

Darkhorse : Wisconsin-Milwaukee +1200

Again, Butler getting more love than the 3 and 4 seed, but no complaints here.  I think the value here is tremendous despite the fact that they likely will meet Butler and then have a road game vs Valpo.  They have 4 losses by 9 points, they competed with Michigan State, hung around with Marquette and beat Wisconsin.

Potential Upsets : Green Bay over Youngstown State, Detroit over Cleveland State, Milwaukee (or Butler) over Valpo

 

 

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Posted: 2/27/2012 11:24:28 PM

Horizon Future : Detroit +600 (1 unit to win 6)

 

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#7
Posted: 2/27/2012 11:28:48 PM
Did some Horizon writeups as well...

Detroit is truly an enigma. I wouldn't be surprised with a quarterfinals exit or a title game appearance. So much talent on that team.

Keep up the great work
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#8
Posted: 2/27/2012 11:42:00 PM

well spaz at this point in the year come tourney time i usually go with the numbers and don't really go with my opinion. I like the matchups for asheville. I know it doesn't take much to go with the chalk.

As for the horizon my heart is with detroit but my head is with Valpo. Also spaz with my picks i'm not trying to tell you you're wrong.or that i'm right. It's just my opinion. I'm just here to win and have fun

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#9
Posted: 2/27/2012 11:53:24 PM
Horizon tourney will be a free for all.  No way to cap that thing.
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#10
Posted: 2/28/2012 1:00:13 AM

JFen - Happy to see your post on conference tourneys.  Looking forward to the rest. Must read for me (and should be for everyone)  Completely agree on Detroit.  I think they play well enough to get to the semis, and then who knows from there.  But love the +600 with four teams left.  Though as you point out, could be out early and one can't be too shocked.

packers - no worries, I knew you were posting your opinion. I appreciate getting both differing and opposing views.  That's what this forum is all about.  Interested to see the line Asheville gets

rzagza - I could see that, think it goes to form for the most part, but finals are anything but 1 vs. 2

 

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#11
Posted: 2/28/2012 2:01:26 AM
SettleDownSpaz: 2 questions for you:

1) Are your "predicted winners" who you think will actually win? Or the team that you think has the most value given the odds?

2) Is your handle a Peter Griffin reference?
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#12
Posted: 2/28/2012 2:12:18 AM
For Horizon Tourny Tonight I got...

Butler -11
Detroit -13
Youngstown -3.5
Milkwuakee -13

What do you guys think ?? 
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#13
Posted: 2/28/2012 2:22:10 AM
I gotta look at the match ups again.

The Horizon tourny is the only tourny going on tonight right ?? 

The Big South 2nd round is Tomorrow ?? 
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#14
Posted: 2/28/2012 2:43:52 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sparksports:

For Horizon Tourny Tonight I got...

Butler -11
Detroit -13
Youngstown -3.5
Milkwuakee -13

What do you guys think ?? 

sounds chalky. i'd probably go with all the dogs.
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Posted: 2/28/2012 3:06:49 AM
Butler, LOL

Not again. After what they did the last game out and got their fools handed to them, not touching them for a while
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Posted: 2/28/2012 3:08:51 AM
I don't like Detroit -13 either, the last time out between these 2 were not that bad and all the other games after that for detroit were not big margins of wins. I think detroit wins this by 6-8 pts.
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Posted: 2/28/2012 11:55:31 AM

dmmx - It's really a combination of both.  I don't often pick chalk to go through the tournaments, but of course with so many, I will have several #1 seeds winning.  Unlikely that I bet a future on a team laying significant chalk, so for those I'll look to bet on them within each individual game.  And yes it is a Peter Griffin reference.  I had to change my handle at Covers request, and while thinking of a name, that episode was on. 

 

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Posted: 2/28/2012 12:11:07 PM

Atlantic Sun

Not much interest with this one and really don't see the finals being anything but Belmont vs. Mercer, but for the sake of not being a slacker, I'll run this one through just liek all the others.

Predicted Winner : Mercer (don't know if I'll see a line, but I have interest)

Mercer is hosting this tournament, so they couldn't have been set up any better to reach and even win the automatic bid.  Belmont is the talk of this conference, and rightfully so, with their victory over Duke earlier in the year. They were pegged to be NCAA tournament darlings last year, but they ran into the exact team who can shut them down by slowing the pace.  That team was Wisconsin and Mercer plays to that style as well.  They average 104 shots per game compared to Belmont at 115.   All the evidence you need is the last game of the year where Belmont outlasted Mercer 62-61.  That game had 101 shots and Mercer played exactly how they should to beat Belmont, but the balls just didn't bounce their way. 

Darkhorse : Florida Gulf Coast (honestly don't see it happening, but they shoot the ball well enough, so could make a run if they get hot from the floor.

Potential Upsets : Florida Gulf Coast over SC Upstate

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#19
Posted: 2/28/2012 12:34:51 PM


Keep 'em comin', Spazzer.  I'll jump in, accordingly.   

 

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#20
Posted: 2/28/2012 1:32:44 PM
Good luck.
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#21
Posted: 2/28/2012 1:46:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SettleDownSpaz:

dmmx - It's really a combination of both.  I don't often pick chalk to go through the tournaments, but of course with so many, I will have several #1 seeds winning.  Unlikely that I bet a future on a team laying significant chalk, so for those I'll look to bet on them within each individual game.  And yes it is a Peter Griffin reference.  I had to change my handle at Covers request, and while thinking of a name, that episode was on. 

 


Thanks for the answers. Glad to hear about the reference.

If you ever have to change your handle again, I'd go with ItCanAlsoBeAHat
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#22
Posted: 2/28/2012 2:08:55 PM
 Great time of the year for  
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Posted: 2/28/2012 3:31:50 PM

GiLmo - good to see you buddy.  Looking forward to your thoughts

Absolute, jimmag - thanks guys.

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#24
Posted: 2/28/2012 3:41:47 PM

Ohio Valley

Another tournament where top 2 advance to the semis.  Tough to go against Murray State and while I'm sure I could argue that the value is there on a team like Tennessee State, I just don't see them beating Murray State again.  I'll see what the lines look like and assess from there.  Where I think there will be money to make is in the quarterfinals as I think Morehead State and Tennessee Tech are not strong and susceptible to be bounced.

Predicted Winner : Murray State (won't bet this)

Darkhorse : SE Missouri State

Not overly into this one as they are lined up on the same side as Murray State, but depending on the number, I might convince myself to take a shot.  Though I highly doubt it.

Potential Upsets : AP or Jax State over Morehead State and Tenn essee State, SE Missouri State over Tennessee Tech

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Posted: 2/28/2012 4:09:49 PM

Looking forward to your writeup and post 

GL SDS

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