Posted:
#1
YTD: 286-223 (+51.3 units)
I'm going to use this thread to post all of my conference tournament futures bets as they become available (5Dimes) and to try and put together previews of some of the tournaments. Not touching "unlined" leagues like the Big South, SWAC, etc as I have not followed those leagues enough to have a feel for the teams. Some of these previews will be longer than others, particularly the A-10 and Mountain West, two of the leagues I've followed most closely this season.
For now, though, let's focus on the first batch of conference tourneys...
Horizon League
Chalk usually holds well in the Horizon as the home court advantage in the semis and finals gives the top seeds a big leg up on the rest of the field. Awarding double byes to the top two (Valpo and Cleveland State) is also a big advantage. Though Valpo is the top seed (+105) and will be able to play at home, Cleveland State is the current favorite (-130) due to the presumed return of defensive ace and team leader D'Aundray Brown. It's easy to forget that CSU was ROLLING along at 20-4 (10-2) before Brown went down during the second meeting with Valpo. Brown's return gives CSU four senior starters, an ingredient missing on every other team in the league. The Vikes will likely meet Detroit or Youngstown at home in the semis. On the other side of the bracket, I'd be very surprised to not see Butler and Milwaukee matching up @ Valpo for the right to face the Crusaders. Yes, Butler was soundly beaten just a few nights ago in front of a nationally-televised audience, but it's impossible to count out Brad Stevens and Ronald Nored at this time of year. Regardless, Valpo is in for a dogfight from either potential opponent. Should the top two seeds win their semifinals matchups, CSU would probably be a very small favorite in the championship game. Yes, Valpo has won both meetings this season, but the first game was 36 hours after CSU won @ Hinkle and the second saw Brown go down with an early injury. A third matchup, with both teams at full strength, would make for a tremendous game. The inside-outside balance of Valpo with Broekoff and Van Wijk, combined with an array of sharp-shooters on the perimeter, gives the Crusaders a fighting chance, but ultimately CSU's defensive tenacity and experience probably puts them over the top. Of the three lowest-seeded teams, I actually view 10th seeded Loyola as the most dangerous. First-year coach Porter Moser has kept them in some games they had no busy competing, and having two savvy veterans like Gibler (if he plays) and Averkamp makes the Greyhounds an attractive bet as a DD underdog against underachieving Detroit.
Projected Champ: Cleveland State
Sleeper: Detroit
Why not? The Titans are blessed with some incredible athletes, including high-riser Doug Anderson and dominant big man Eli Holman. Sophomore PG Ray McCallum Jr. is a future NBA prospect. They can score with anyone and have the ability to hang around in any venue, but will the tenacity and aggressiveness finally show? Lack of depth hurts, but this is a very dangerous team. The Loyola game will probably be tight most of the way and an early exit is not out of the question.
Best Value: Youngstown State (+3500)
The Penguins were one of the most improved teams in the country this season, bursting out of the Horizon League cellar with a 10-8 campaign after last year's 2-16 debacle. They boast one of the league's hottest players in freshman guard Kedrick Perry and a dominant shotblocker in Damian Eargle. Jerry Slocum has been around forever and has a ton of postseason experience from which to draw They lost both games to Green Bay, but I'd be surprised to see the Phoenix win 3 in the same season, especially with this game in Youngstown. A win would put them into a neutral-court quarterfinals matchup with mercurial Detroit. Two wins would give me an awesome hedging opportunity, and this team shoots the ball well enough from the perimeter to make a bit of a run if shots are falling. Too much value to pass up.
I'm going to use this thread to post all of my conference tournament futures bets as they become available (5Dimes) and to try and put together previews of some of the tournaments. Not touching "unlined" leagues like the Big South, SWAC, etc as I have not followed those leagues enough to have a feel for the teams. Some of these previews will be longer than others, particularly the A-10 and Mountain West, two of the leagues I've followed most closely this season.
For now, though, let's focus on the first batch of conference tourneys...
Horizon League
Chalk usually holds well in the Horizon as the home court advantage in the semis and finals gives the top seeds a big leg up on the rest of the field. Awarding double byes to the top two (Valpo and Cleveland State) is also a big advantage. Though Valpo is the top seed (+105) and will be able to play at home, Cleveland State is the current favorite (-130) due to the presumed return of defensive ace and team leader D'Aundray Brown. It's easy to forget that CSU was ROLLING along at 20-4 (10-2) before Brown went down during the second meeting with Valpo. Brown's return gives CSU four senior starters, an ingredient missing on every other team in the league. The Vikes will likely meet Detroit or Youngstown at home in the semis. On the other side of the bracket, I'd be very surprised to not see Butler and Milwaukee matching up @ Valpo for the right to face the Crusaders. Yes, Butler was soundly beaten just a few nights ago in front of a nationally-televised audience, but it's impossible to count out Brad Stevens and Ronald Nored at this time of year. Regardless, Valpo is in for a dogfight from either potential opponent. Should the top two seeds win their semifinals matchups, CSU would probably be a very small favorite in the championship game. Yes, Valpo has won both meetings this season, but the first game was 36 hours after CSU won @ Hinkle and the second saw Brown go down with an early injury. A third matchup, with both teams at full strength, would make for a tremendous game. The inside-outside balance of Valpo with Broekoff and Van Wijk, combined with an array of sharp-shooters on the perimeter, gives the Crusaders a fighting chance, but ultimately CSU's defensive tenacity and experience probably puts them over the top. Of the three lowest-seeded teams, I actually view 10th seeded Loyola as the most dangerous. First-year coach Porter Moser has kept them in some games they had no busy competing, and having two savvy veterans like Gibler (if he plays) and Averkamp makes the Greyhounds an attractive bet as a DD underdog against underachieving Detroit.
Projected Champ: Cleveland State
Sleeper: Detroit
Why not? The Titans are blessed with some incredible athletes, including high-riser Doug Anderson and dominant big man Eli Holman. Sophomore PG Ray McCallum Jr. is a future NBA prospect. They can score with anyone and have the ability to hang around in any venue, but will the tenacity and aggressiveness finally show? Lack of depth hurts, but this is a very dangerous team. The Loyola game will probably be tight most of the way and an early exit is not out of the question.
Best Value: Youngstown State (+3500)
The Penguins were one of the most improved teams in the country this season, bursting out of the Horizon League cellar with a 10-8 campaign after last year's 2-16 debacle. They boast one of the league's hottest players in freshman guard Kedrick Perry and a dominant shotblocker in Damian Eargle. Jerry Slocum has been around forever and has a ton of postseason experience from which to draw They lost both games to Green Bay, but I'd be surprised to see the Phoenix win 3 in the same season, especially with this game in Youngstown. A win would put them into a neutral-court quarterfinals matchup with mercurial Detroit. Two wins would give me an awesome hedging opportunity, and this team shoots the ball well enough from the perimeter to make a bit of a run if shots are falling. Too much value to pass up.
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Good Stuff JFen
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