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nropp11 |
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#1 Posted: 2/15/2012 5:11:04 PM November: 46-38, +5.20 November Leans: 39-38 December: 65-70, -9.45 December Leans: 67-79 January: 52-39, +15.80 January Leans: 40-37 February: 26-19, +23.90 February Leans: 26-22
Just one tonight. Spot play here on Davidson in an ugly spot, but I think there is some value. In the first meeting this year, Samford could not miss and posted a 77 point total in just 40 shot attempts. I think it's safe to say that, that probably isn't going to happen again tonight. That game also happened to be Davidson's slowest game of the year up to that point, so a bit unfamiliar with the pace may have been a bit of a shock in the midst of a three game roady. Not only that, Davidson's Cohen sort of only played 9 minutes b/c of foul trouble. He's their best offensive option in the post (huge advantage in this game), he's their best defender, he gets to the foul line a ton, and he rarely misses those foul shots. There are a few other interesting dynamics that are also present in this matchup. First, Samford's coming off their highest offensive output of the season in a home contest with Elon. They shot over 56% and put an 87 up on the scoreboard. Along those same lines, their second highest point total of the year also came against Elon, and again they put up an 86 on the board shooting a great percentage from the field. After the first Elon match-up, they laid an egg at UNC-Greensboro, only posting a 60, and showed extreme complacency against a similar style they're going into tonight, just a much better offense. So, why Elon? Well, they don't defend all that great. No pressure on the guards, they sag quite a bit, and they force very few turnovers. In terms of style, Davidson's a bit of the same. They don't force many turnovers, but they do pressure well, and they do defend the perimeter quite a bit better. So, that leads me to tonight. I have Samford coming off a game in which they could throw the ball up backwards and it was going to go in the hoop. Safe to say the complacency should be there tonight. They'll get shot attempts, but a letdown should occur. And with that, Davidson has revenge, and this offense should score quite a bit tonight on a Samford zone that's pretty horrific yet has proven to be a reason to their success in a conference where very few teams can score consistently from the perimeter. I should also note that without Cohen being a big part of the first game, Davidson's offensive rebounding also took a big hit, and this is a quality stat anytime going against a zone (especially one that gives up a ton of offensive rebounds). Extra opportunities = More points. Prior to the first meeting this year, the most points Samford had scored on Davidson since joining the SoCon a few years back was 56 (four games = 55, 52, 56, and 49). As for the value, Davidson was a -12 at Samford. Only a five point difference here at home? Granted, Davidson's coming off a loss, and they do have a ginormous game with Wichita on tap (which is really my only concern here), but I can look past that negative as I think it might be factored into a short line. 3* Davidson -17.5
Lean: Georgia Tech PK Lean: Miami FL +6 Lean: Cincinnati -10 Lean: New Mexico PK Lean: Colorado State/Boise State Over 137
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lv2ftfire |
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#2 Posted: 2/15/2012 5:14:02 PM  |
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GWarner27 |
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#3 Posted: 2/15/2012 5:15:09 PM |
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DAnewguy |
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#4 Posted: 2/15/2012 5:17:12 PM |
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nropp11 |
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#5 Posted: 2/15/2012 5:18:40 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by GWarner27:
Damn that's a lot of chalk, I'm told Cooley plays zone about 25% of the time although I'd say lower than that.
That's the conclusion I came to as well. They're due for a clunker, think this is the spot. |
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MDnightFlight |
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#6 Posted: 2/15/2012 5:21:56 PM  |
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PGAromes82 |
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#7 Posted: 2/15/2012 5:22:04 PM  |
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lv2ftfire |
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#8 Posted: 2/15/2012 5:23:22 PM |
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#9 Posted: 2/15/2012 5:23:52 PM |
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nropp11 |
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#10 Posted: 2/15/2012 5:25:26 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by MDnightFlight: BOL nropp. Some insight into the NM lean? Thanks
Don't think SDSU's sweeps em on the year. About as far as I got into it. "Hunch" lean.
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FR3SH-like-UgHH |
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#11 Posted: 2/15/2012 5:26:19 PM
uconn has been an under machine and the 1 game lined at 147 they have went under...
anything? |
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nropp11 |
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#12 Posted: 2/15/2012 5:28:26 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by lv2ftfire:
Any info on s. Florida nropp?
Would lean Nova, but wasn't interested in waiting on the Wayans availability. He's a big part to that team.
In regards to the game, Villanova struggles against good offenses b/c their defense blows. That's sort of masked tonight against a USF team that struggles to score at times. Game of Good Offense versus Bad Defense and vice versa. Nova will probably go zone and USF eeeek no shooters and takes a bit away from their inside game. Saw value in the pup.
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nropp11 |
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#13 Posted: 2/15/2012 5:29:51 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by FR3SH-like-UgHH: nropp, any opinion on the uconn/depaul total of 148?
uconn has been an under machine and the 1 game lined at 147 they have went under...
anything?
I looked at the over for a while, but came to the conclusion that I had no idea what either coach was going to do. Depaul's been shuffling lineups, and Uconn has the injuries, so no clue here. This is just a personal preference, but I could almost always never point to a Depaul under b/c of their style.
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FR3SH-like-UgHH |
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#14 Posted: 2/15/2012 5:31:25 PM
have u looked at the OKC/HOU match up in NBA 2night? any lean if so...
thnx 4 all the help. |
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nropp11 |
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#15 Posted: 2/15/2012 5:32:28 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by FR3SH-like-UgHH: thnx for the quick answer...know it's the wrong forum but...
have u looked at the OKC/HOU match up in NBA 2night? any lean if so...
thnx 4 all the help.
Didn't get a chance to check out NBA tonight. |
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#16 Posted: 2/15/2012 5:32:56 PM
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#17 Posted: 2/15/2012 5:35:40 PM |
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nropp11 |
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#18 Posted: 2/15/2012 5:36:27 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Tposter:
What do you think of USC getting 15 at UCLA tonight in this rivalry matchup? USC is horrible I know but its UCLA
Didn't even look at this one. Won't be on or against USC the rest of the year. |
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#19 Posted: 2/15/2012 5:39:25 PM |
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#20 Posted: 2/15/2012 5:43:46 PM |
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nropp11 |
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#21 Posted: 2/15/2012 5:51:33 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by cmw5123:
Nropp, Any insight on the notre dame/rutgers game? I like the spot here for rutgers and think its a bad spot for ND. Have a strong lean towards rutgers plus the 8.5 and might go small on their money line as well. Also was wondering about your thoughts of memphis/tulane and st. marys/loyola marymount? Im thinking about a small play on memphis money line. Do you see them losing outright tonight? And also really like marymount plus the 14...thoughts?
Don't think ND will use the burn too much tonight unless they get a big lead. Rutgers use to play that style, so no real advantage there. I'm having a hard time to go against Brey at this point. The job he's done with this team is unreal.
As for Memphis, I think you're safe there.
No interest in Loyola Marymount. Tough little two game roady here, and the first game was a dud. |
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nropp11 |
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#22 Posted: 2/15/2012 5:53:57 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by semperfi19:
Neil, any thoughts on Drake/Bradley. Even with Simons out with Mono Drake should be able to beat a punchless Bradley squad?
I would lean Bradley if Simons is out, and I would play Drake if Simons is in. I looked for a while to see what I could find and everything said he was doubtful to play (but the photo that Drake put up on their twitter has him dressed in his practice gear this afternoon at their shootaround). Tough call. I wasn't going to spend any more time trying to decipher if he was gonna play or not. Returning just a week later after mono? That's unheard of.
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#23 Posted: 2/15/2012 5:58:47 PM
anything jump out at you in that game?
thanks
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#24 Posted: 2/15/2012 6:01:04 PM
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#25 Posted: 2/15/2012 6:01:06 PM |
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