YTD: 16-11 (59.3%)
Last posted plays on 1/26 resulted in a 1-1 night
Play: Charlotte / La Salle Over 136
The angle in this one is pretty straight forward as both teams are now 7 games into their Atlantic 10 conference schedule (decent sample size). La Salle has yet to play a conference game under tonight’s total of 136. Their lowest conference total was in their last match-up vs Duquesne that finished at 139. Their conference games are averaging a total 147.5 points.
On the surface, it has been a mixed bag of conference results with respect to totals for Charlotte (low of 109 vs St Joe’s, and high of 160 vs UMass). But in my opinion, this is where we find the value with tonight’s total. Charlotte’s conference game have had an average total of 134.4 points – however, this average is skewed to the low side since four of their seven conference games have been against the slower paced teams in the A10 (Richmond #277, St Joes #184, St Louis #315, and GW #256).
Tonight they get to go up against a similarly fast-paced team in La Salle (68.0 possessions per game, #107) who is averaging 69.1 possessions per conference game. KenPom predicts 69. In a game that will see ~70 possessions, the game could still go over with neither team scoring more than 1 pt per possession.
And historically when these two teams have matched up, there has not been a shortage of points. Over is 4-1 in L5, and includes 142 in regulation in LY’s match-up.
It’s also nice to back an over that involves a La Salle team that ranks 13th nationally with respect to effective FG%, a result of their 40.5% shooting from behind the arc.
Good luck if you decide to make a play
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