2-4 yesterday. tough losses on texas and northern Colorado. glad i was on the pitt ML in addition to the side. it should have been a better day though. second day in a row i've made last second kneejerk adds while bored at work and ive deservedly gone 0-4 on them. ive been doing well at capping games, but being uncharacteristically reckless by making last second adds.
nice SU easy wins for Pitt and SEMO at least
if you didnt catch the northern colorado game, and you bet on it, it's probably for the best. they were up 9 with 2 minutes left and had the ball....NAU started pressing and northern colorado just FOLDED...allowed NAU to go on an 11-0 run...went to overtime...then northern colorado was 1 and went to the line with 6 seconds left....made the first ...missed the second...i think the line closed at -2 but i had it at -3...what a bummer...double moose
texas
austin peay sucks.
nice game for penn yesterday. shot over 50% on FG and 3pt%. really stood up for the rivalry game gotta respect them for that. caught princeton rusty after 2 weeks of no hoops and they never looked back
still a bitter taste in my mouth...anyway....3 locked in for tomorrow
illinois +3.5
vanderbilt -2.5
kent state -4.5
leans: uva under, wisconsin under, ksu, new mexico
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
210-165-8
2-4 yesterday. tough losses on texas and northern Colorado. glad i was on the pitt ML in addition to the side. it should have been a better day though. second day in a row i've made last second kneejerk adds while bored at work and ive deservedly gone 0-4 on them. ive been doing well at capping games, but being uncharacteristically reckless by making last second adds.
nice SU easy wins for Pitt and SEMO at least
if you didnt catch the northern colorado game, and you bet on it, it's probably for the best. they were up 9 with 2 minutes left and had the ball....NAU started pressing and northern colorado just FOLDED...allowed NAU to go on an 11-0 run...went to overtime...then northern colorado was 1 and went to the line with 6 seconds left....made the first ...missed the second...i think the line closed at -2 but i had it at -3...what a bummer...double moose
texas
austin peay sucks.
nice game for penn yesterday. shot over 50% on FG and 3pt%. really stood up for the rivalry game gotta respect them for that. caught princeton rusty after 2 weeks of no hoops and they never looked back
still a bitter taste in my mouth...anyway....3 locked in for tomorrow
illinois +3.5
vanderbilt -2.5
kent state -4.5
leans: uva under, wisconsin under, ksu, new mexico
wow......we are both on vandy and illinois sloop.............i see this mich st/illinois being a bloodbath and hard to watch, yet will come down to last second.............first team to 50 wins
vandy looks like a team that is ready to step up to the elite...i dont think 40 minutes of hell is gonna effect them at all
good luck sir
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wow......we are both on vandy and illinois sloop.............i see this mich st/illinois being a bloodbath and hard to watch, yet will come down to last second.............first team to 50 wins
vandy looks like a team that is ready to step up to the elite...i dont think 40 minutes of hell is gonna effect them at all
just going to throw a bunch of jumbled thoughts and numbers out because im short on time tonight
vanderbilt has been crushing with ezeli back after missing ten games. they've won 10 of the last 11 and are starting to resemble that #7 team they were ranked at in the preseason. they're 6-1 ATS on road games this year, 4-0 ATS in last 4 road games following an ATS loss, 5-0 ATS this year on away games against teams with a winning record....arkansas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win
anyway...ATS numbers are cute and all, but i really just like this matchup from a talent/style standpoint. everyone is busting a nut over arkansas for going 15-0 at home this year....but take a deeper look...over half (8) of those wins come to teams outside of the top 200...and 11 of them come to teams outside of the top 150. that michigan game deserves an asterisk. that was a huge letdown for michigan after beating their rival MSU in a dramatic home-court buzzer finish, they came out so flat in that game, i remember they were down 20+ in the first half. they came back strong in the 2nd but just never caught up. i'm not impressed at LSU at all this year, so i suppose i'll give arkansas credit for that win, but i'm not calling them remotely in the same class as vanderbilt. they had a great win over mississippi state. but that's literally the only win that deserves respect IMO for this entire season. they played a great game and shot 56.5% in that win. should point out MSST is not great on the road though, 2-3 this year
so vandy gets the opportunity to earn a little more respect, hand arkansas a home court loss, and get revenge on them for last year after letting them be 1 of only 3 teams who beat them on their home court. (they only played once last year...and also vanderbilt returns basically their entire team this year, so they will remember playing that game)
i'm willing to call BLUFF on this young arkansas team that's played the #329 nonconference schedule and #221 overall schedule and has lost half of their games against top 100 teams by double digits. vanderbilt is straight up rolling right now, their only road loss comes @ louisville in overtime without ezeli, and theyre just playing so cohesive and team-oriented basketball and are shooting really well and still fighting for that respect
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just going to throw a bunch of jumbled thoughts and numbers out because im short on time tonight
vanderbilt has been crushing with ezeli back after missing ten games. they've won 10 of the last 11 and are starting to resemble that #7 team they were ranked at in the preseason. they're 6-1 ATS on road games this year, 4-0 ATS in last 4 road games following an ATS loss, 5-0 ATS this year on away games against teams with a winning record....arkansas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win
anyway...ATS numbers are cute and all, but i really just like this matchup from a talent/style standpoint. everyone is busting a nut over arkansas for going 15-0 at home this year....but take a deeper look...over half (8) of those wins come to teams outside of the top 200...and 11 of them come to teams outside of the top 150. that michigan game deserves an asterisk. that was a huge letdown for michigan after beating their rival MSU in a dramatic home-court buzzer finish, they came out so flat in that game, i remember they were down 20+ in the first half. they came back strong in the 2nd but just never caught up. i'm not impressed at LSU at all this year, so i suppose i'll give arkansas credit for that win, but i'm not calling them remotely in the same class as vanderbilt. they had a great win over mississippi state. but that's literally the only win that deserves respect IMO for this entire season. they played a great game and shot 56.5% in that win. should point out MSST is not great on the road though, 2-3 this year
so vandy gets the opportunity to earn a little more respect, hand arkansas a home court loss, and get revenge on them for last year after letting them be 1 of only 3 teams who beat them on their home court. (they only played once last year...and also vanderbilt returns basically their entire team this year, so they will remember playing that game)
i'm willing to call BLUFF on this young arkansas team that's played the #329 nonconference schedule and #221 overall schedule and has lost half of their games against top 100 teams by double digits. vanderbilt is straight up rolling right now, their only road loss comes @ louisville in overtime without ezeli, and theyre just playing so cohesive and team-oriented basketball and are shooting really well and still fighting for that respect
kent state wins tomorrow, pending no miracle for CMU, and i just have a feeling they get a cover as well. central michigan is bad. the best team they've beat this entire year is #232 UC Irvine (8-13 this year). they dont have much of a home court, either. 7 of their 13 losses this year come by double digits, and some of those blowouts include bowling green, wright state, and ball state, all teams worse than kent state. i'[ll take the 14-6 MAC favorite to cover on the road. they're only 5-3 on the road, but those 3 losses come to #64 akron, #81 ohio, and #124 utah state. all much better than #245 central michigan. and 4 of kent state's 5 road wins have been by double digits, including a 10 point win at WVU
dont have much to say about this from a matchup/style POV. i guess id give kent state the advantage for their fast pace, which might allow them to force turnovers and convert transition buckets. but CMU actually takes good care of the ball, so they probably wont turn it over too much. but to sum up the kenpom stats, kent state is just moderately good at everything, and cmu is moderately bad at everything. dont see any true advantages that stick out on the stats. but i like the fact that kent state is the #21 most experienced team int he country (beat CMU by 13 last year), and they are #87 in effective height. central michigan #186 in effective height, and #269 in experienced. CMU #277 overall defense, #215 at effective fg %. CMU has had the more difficult schedule thus far, #131 vs #216.
worth pointing out that CMU gets a lot of their point distribution from 3 pointers (although they're not particularly great at making them), and kent state is #72 in the country at defensive 3pt %. i havent checked but i think i remember from the JMU game that they have some really big guards, and JMU is a similar style offense to CMU's; not great at shooting threes but still shoots a shit load of them anyway....and i remember kent state was really effective at giving them trouble on the perimeter and because of that they kept jmu to 51 points...might be similar here
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kent state wins tomorrow, pending no miracle for CMU, and i just have a feeling they get a cover as well. central michigan is bad. the best team they've beat this entire year is #232 UC Irvine (8-13 this year). they dont have much of a home court, either. 7 of their 13 losses this year come by double digits, and some of those blowouts include bowling green, wright state, and ball state, all teams worse than kent state. i'[ll take the 14-6 MAC favorite to cover on the road. they're only 5-3 on the road, but those 3 losses come to #64 akron, #81 ohio, and #124 utah state. all much better than #245 central michigan. and 4 of kent state's 5 road wins have been by double digits, including a 10 point win at WVU
dont have much to say about this from a matchup/style POV. i guess id give kent state the advantage for their fast pace, which might allow them to force turnovers and convert transition buckets. but CMU actually takes good care of the ball, so they probably wont turn it over too much. but to sum up the kenpom stats, kent state is just moderately good at everything, and cmu is moderately bad at everything. dont see any true advantages that stick out on the stats. but i like the fact that kent state is the #21 most experienced team int he country (beat CMU by 13 last year), and they are #87 in effective height. central michigan #186 in effective height, and #269 in experienced. CMU #277 overall defense, #215 at effective fg %. CMU has had the more difficult schedule thus far, #131 vs #216.
worth pointing out that CMU gets a lot of their point distribution from 3 pointers (although they're not particularly great at making them), and kent state is #72 in the country at defensive 3pt %. i havent checked but i think i remember from the JMU game that they have some really big guards, and JMU is a similar style offense to CMU's; not great at shooting threes but still shoots a shit load of them anyway....and i remember kent state was really effective at giving them trouble on the perimeter and because of that they kept jmu to 51 points...might be similar here
Any thoughts on Oklahoma State at Texas Tech? Tech is pretty awful.
ive been trying to talk myself out of this but i might have to give it a shot...i mean ok state has been 1-4 on the road but come on look at who they've played...they've been a little jekyll and hyde especially offensively but they're improving, and that A&M game was just a letdown from mizzou...TT has lost 8 straight and has only beaten 1 team in the top 200 this year (#176 north texas back in november on 2nd game of season)
TT killed ok state on the glass the first time around...37-24...probably wont happen again...TT only gets 31.8 rebounds per game (299 in the country)...might have to consult NRopp on this one i think he's have some valuable insight
big 12 road games are hard but come on TT is definitely the worst team in the conference, not even a question
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Quote Originally Posted by hbonn17:
Any thoughts on Oklahoma State at Texas Tech? Tech is pretty awful.
ive been trying to talk myself out of this but i might have to give it a shot...i mean ok state has been 1-4 on the road but come on look at who they've played...they've been a little jekyll and hyde especially offensively but they're improving, and that A&M game was just a letdown from mizzou...TT has lost 8 straight and has only beaten 1 team in the top 200 this year (#176 north texas back in november on 2nd game of season)
TT killed ok state on the glass the first time around...37-24...probably wont happen again...TT only gets 31.8 rebounds per game (299 in the country)...might have to consult NRopp on this one i think he's have some valuable insight
big 12 road games are hard but come on TT is definitely the worst team in the conference, not even a question
sloop whats the angle on illy 2moro? seems like everybody is on them
more of a "feel" play for me than anything. illinois has so much motivation for a win here...theyve dropped the last 3 by a total of 11 points...they need a big win to prove they can compete...great homecourt here for illinois...11-1 this year and 14-2 last year...izzo said it himself, "illinois is just a couple buckets and a couple plays from leading the league right now, it's going to be a rugged environment when we go there"...these two always play close...the last 13 meetings between these two teams have been decided by 10 or fewer points... +3.5 doesnt seem like a lot but it really is
i also loathe tom izzo so id get a little satisfaction out of a SU win here
sort of like texas tonight this was just a type of automatic play for me...ive been wishy-washy on my spot/feel plays, so tread lightly
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Quote Originally Posted by youngmoney23:
sloop whats the angle on illy 2moro? seems like everybody is on them
more of a "feel" play for me than anything. illinois has so much motivation for a win here...theyve dropped the last 3 by a total of 11 points...they need a big win to prove they can compete...great homecourt here for illinois...11-1 this year and 14-2 last year...izzo said it himself, "illinois is just a couple buckets and a couple plays from leading the league right now, it's going to be a rugged environment when we go there"...these two always play close...the last 13 meetings between these two teams have been decided by 10 or fewer points... +3.5 doesnt seem like a lot but it really is
i also loathe tom izzo so id get a little satisfaction out of a SU win here
sort of like texas tonight this was just a type of automatic play for me...ive been wishy-washy on my spot/feel plays, so tread lightly
agree with you on the fact that 3.5 pts being a lot in this game............this game has all the makings for being a one possession game coming down to the last shot...........illinois plays tons of close games and it will come as an advantage tomorrow night
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agree with you on the fact that 3.5 pts being a lot in this game............this game has all the makings for being a one possession game coming down to the last shot...........illinois plays tons of close games and it will come as an advantage tomorrow night
if you're reluctant on illinois, kent state, and oklahoma state tomorrow, that's perfectly fine, i would never say any of my picks are the "right" ones, but i must say that taking 2 of those in a 4 or 5 point teaser looks pretty damn good....
kent state +.5 / illinois +8.5???
kent state -.5 / oklahoma state PK???
illinois +7.5 / oklahoma state PK???
good day for a teaser or a ML parlay. but im guessing that illinois line is going to drop
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if you're reluctant on illinois, kent state, and oklahoma state tomorrow, that's perfectly fine, i would never say any of my picks are the "right" ones, but i must say that taking 2 of those in a 4 or 5 point teaser looks pretty damn good....
kent state +.5 / illinois +8.5???
kent state -.5 / oklahoma state PK???
illinois +7.5 / oklahoma state PK???
good day for a teaser or a ML parlay. but im guessing that illinois line is going to drop
agree with you on the fact that 3.5 pts being a lot in this game............this game has all the makings for being a one possession game coming down to the last shot...........illinois plays tons of close games and it will come as an advantage tomorrow night
hopefully we wont have to watch the draymond green show
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Quote Originally Posted by indiansrock:
agree with you on the fact that 3.5 pts being a lot in this game............this game has all the makings for being a one possession game coming down to the last shot...........illinois plays tons of close games and it will come as an advantage tomorrow night
hopefully we wont have to watch the draymond green show
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