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nropp11 |
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#1 Posted: 1/28/2012 6:53:41 AM November: 46-38, +5.20 November Leans: 39-38 December: 65-70, -9.45 December Leans: 67-79 January: 44-34, +13.40 January Leans: 40-35
Saw quite a few questions in the other thread about this SDSU/CSU game being played today, so I'll take care of that one first as there is a really interesting dynamic within the game itself. From a situational perspective, SDSU hits the road for the tail end of a two game roady, but it's not your ordinary road-trip. To and from the Wyoming game, they hit five airports as they had trouble on the way home as well (had to re-fuel in Arizona, stopped at five airports in 35 hour span). So, that's a plus. But that's not all. Over the course of the past 10 days, they've gone to altitude in New Mexico, returned home, gone to altitude in Wyoming, had all those travel issues, came home, and they're going right back to altitude here once again into what should be a much faster pace than the last 3 games SDSU has played (all under 60 possessions). On paper, it may seem that each team is going in different directions, but that simply isn't the case. I think SDSU has been quite impressive as of late with what they've done, and it will be even more impressive if they can win here. But I just don't see it, and I see value on the other side. For one, I think it's safe to say that as a team SDSU was much better last year as opposed to this year. They only won by 2 here last season. Colorado State has lost two in a row, but taking a closer look, there are a few things that stand out. First, both games were on the road. Second, if you don't really have an offense that looks to penetrate, you're not going to beat Wyoming. Third, they walked into a buzzsaw at the Pit. And fourth, and the key part as to why I'm on them today, they've had to adjust their lineup the past few games b/c of the opponent. CSU primarily uses a four guard offense. They couldn't do that at Wyoming. They couldn't do that at New Mexico. SDSU uses about the same. They have a bit more size up front, but they're still based on the four guards. Case in point, CSU doesn't have to change a thing here. They get to use the lineups they want, run the sets they want, and should get a bump with an offense that has looked putrid the last few games, at home. I think much has been made of SDSU and the mentality of being an underdog. Heck, they've acknowledged it the past few weeks. Now that they're the favorite, do they take it easy? I highly doubt it, but it's possible. My only concern in this match-up is the Colorado State defense, really. If they're going to win, I think they're going to have to outscore SDSU (this CSU team was a top 15 offense prior to the last roadtrip). And in this spot, I will take my chances. Everything that SDSU has been through the past few days, combined with coming into the altitude yet again, sort of masks my fear of the defense (should see letup in SDSU offense). Situationally with all of the intangibles, I think this is any handicapper's dream spot, and just doesn't occur often. Digging deeper into the matchups and seeing the opportunity to utilize your premier lineup a majority of the game turns that dream into...well, a better dream. This spot is good, and I'm willing to go after it.
5* Colorado State +3 3* VCU +1 2* Bowling Green/Eastern Michigan Under 114 2* Western Michigan -4.5 1* Buffalo -15
That gets me through the day games. Might have one or two tonight.
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JEG53 |
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#2 Posted: 1/28/2012 7:01:18 AM
GL today,going against Towson again,lol.
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Orangemen44 |
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#3 Posted: 1/28/2012 7:02:38 AM  |
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atlheatholder |
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#4 Posted: 1/28/2012 7:02:57 AM Excellent info on the Mtn West matchup.
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clem1 |
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#5 Posted: 1/28/2012 7:14:08 AM
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#6 Posted: 1/28/2012 7:25:04 AM |
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holland90 |
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#7 Posted: 1/28/2012 7:33:23 AM |
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#8 Posted: 1/28/2012 7:45:11 AM |
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nropp11 |
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#9 Posted: 1/28/2012 8:36:50 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by holland90: You think it will be possible to find a stream for SDSU/CSU? Would be nice watching a game with a big bet before bedtime
No clue. I'm probably not the guy to ask about that stuff.
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#10 Posted: 1/28/2012 8:43:35 AM  |
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#11 Posted: 1/28/2012 8:46:42 AM |
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knoxcr |
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#12 Posted: 1/28/2012 8:53:27 AM |
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#13 Posted: 1/28/2012 8:55:54 AM  |
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#14 Posted: 1/28/2012 9:12:07 AM |
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nropp11 |
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#15 Posted: 1/28/2012 9:14:00 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by NickOSU22:
Hey ropp. I want to play a 11am game central time. I'm bored and want to gamble. What do u like the best outpf those games. I wanted to take Marquette. They are a solid team. Villinova played good last game do I'm kinda scared. You see any other picks that you like better? Thanks
If you like laying double digit chalk on the road with a very good shooting team playing against a zone and going against a team with it's leader, take a shot at Buffalo.
I'm not a big fan of Marquette in this spot.
If you want a home team, take a shot at Syracuse. WVU's shown a ton of complacency against a zone and they're going to have to hit outside shots to stay close here. Personally, I don't think they can do it.
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#16 Posted: 1/28/2012 9:16:15 AM
I was looking at West. Mich but Demetrius Ward is now doubtful with a bad knee and Stainbrook is a ? due to disciplinary reasons.
Did you factor this in?
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nropp11 |
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#17 Posted: 1/28/2012 9:17:13 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by nropp11:
If you like laying double digit chalk on the road with a very good shooting team playing against a zone and going against a team with it's leader, take a shot at Buffalo.
I'm not a big fan of Marquette in this spot.
If you want a home team, take a shot at Syracuse. WVU's shown a ton of complacency against a zone and they're going to have to hit outside shots to stay close here. Personally, I don't think they can do it.
GL
^
That should say without it's leader. NIU becomes the youngest team in the nation without Toler. He's their go to guy, and he's been the only reason they've been close in the games that they've been close, which is few and far between.
I'm not a big fan of laying double digits, on the road, in an early tip, but I can honestly say I think Buffalo is 20 points better. Whether that happens today, I have no idea. But they're going to have a good # of open looks from the perimeter, and they're going to force NIU to hit some outside shots. I envision NIU without Toler and I see a team that's just going to pass the ball around with nobody wanting to take a shot.
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sloop703 |
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#18 Posted: 1/28/2012 9:18:41 AM
an added bonus, in case you weren't aware: NIU's leading scorer and rebounder was dismissed from the team a couple days ago. |
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nropp11 |
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#19 Posted: 1/28/2012 9:28:20 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by GameHunter: Good morning NR! I was looking at West. Mich but Demetrius Ward is now doubtful with a bad knee and Stainbrook is a ? due to disciplinary reasons. Did you factor this in?
Yup, actually helped me get down on it (as dumb as that sounds). Stainbrook's a beast in the paint, but I think he might be slowing them down. He missed the last game due to suspension, and not sure if he is going to play here or not (gun to head I think he doesn't start but will see time).
His replacement = Shayne Whittington. Same player, just as good efficiencies, better rebounding percentages, and defensive #'s as well. And, he's faster. Him in the lineup allows this team to get up and down a bit more which is what they like to do. He had 9 points, 13 boards in his place last game.
The loss to Ward if he doesn't go isn't all that big of an issue to me. He's a slasher/scorer, but hasn't been shooting the ball all that well this year. His minutes go to Richie/Hoerdemann who can replace him. Richie's more of a slasher/scorer while Hoerdemann's more of a spot up shooter.
Miami OH's awfully young. Just lost to Toledo. Come in here against a zone where they will no doubt depend on the three-pointer. Those misses lead to transition opportunities with a now faster Western Michigan squad.
Liking the advantages here, and might be catching a few extra points of value b/c of the injuries.
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#20 Posted: 1/28/2012 9:31:34 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by nropp11:
Yup, actually helped me get down on it (as dumb as that sounds). Stainbrook's a beast in the paint, but I think he might be slowing them down. He missed the last game due to suspension, and not sure if he is going to play here or not (gun to head I think he doesn't start but will see time).
His replacement = Shayne Whittington. Same player, just as good efficiencies, better rebounding percentages, and defensive #'s as well. And, he's faster. Him in the lineup allows this team to get up and down a bit more which is what they like to do. He had 9 points, 13 boards in his place last game.
The loss to Ward if he doesn't go isn't all that big of an issue to me. He's a slasher/scorer, but hasn't been shooting the ball all that well this year. His minutes go to Richie/Hoerdemann who can replace him. Richie's more of a slasher/scorer while Hoerdemann's more of a spot up shooter.
Miami OH's awfully young. Just lost to Toledo. Come in here against a zone where they will no doubt depend on the three-pointer. Those misses lead to transition opportunities with a now faster Western Michigan squad.
Liking the advantages here, and might be catching a few extra points of value b/c of the injuries.
GL
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#21 Posted: 1/28/2012 9:31:52 AM 
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nropp11 |
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#22 Posted: 1/28/2012 9:33:27 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by 222bad: BOL today nropp. Ended up with Delaware @ Drexel + 14 1/2 and haven't locked in the Cavs yet. Still think this pace will have them upside down after the sprint with the Hells the other night. Plan on doing it soon. Also grabbed Colo St double bet plus a small ML + 125. Let's root for the Rams, and root for the loot.
I like Delaware. Had they lost the first meeting, I think I'd be on them today.
Definitely some value though.
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#23 Posted: 1/28/2012 9:33:36 AM
Always read your plays and write ups man and thanks for all you do!!
I am a born and raised South Carolina fan and I just want your opinion on todays game in Oxford...
I finally got burned when we shot 30% and somehow beat Alabama.
This year's team as you know is not very good. Whats the play considering SC is 6-20 after a cover and 3-9 in last 12 Saturday games, if that even matters
Thanks again!!!! |
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#24 Posted: 1/28/2012 9:34:29 AM  |
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#25 Posted: 1/28/2012 9:37:17 AM |
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