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Saturday 1/28 CBB Plays

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Captain
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Posted: #1
2011-2012 YTD: 200-154 (+39.5 units)

Took Thursday and Friday off to regroup after a horrid week.

Here's what I'm currently interested in on Saturday's card:

West Virginia +12 @ Syracuse
Kansas @ Iowa State +7
San Diego State @ Colorado State +2
George Washington @ Fordham +1.5
Saint Louis @ UMASS +3.5
Wyoming -1.5 @ Boise State
Purdue @ Northwestern PK
Oklahoma State @ Texas A & M -5.5
VCU @ Georgia State -1
Cincinnati @ Rutgers PK
Auburn @ Tennessee -8
Richmond @ St. Bonaventure -4.5
Akron @ Central Michigan +5
Georgia Southern +8 @ Chattanooga
Nevada @ Louisiana Tech +6
Marshall +9 @ Memphis

Nothing locked in yet, but West Virginia, Marshall, Colorado State, and UMASS are almost certainly going be plays.

All discussion welcomed.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #2
That SDSU line reeks so bad. I almost never play the "too easy side" on those but SDSU looks so good. If they can win wire to wire in NM and wyoming I dont know why going up to Fort Collins should be basically a pk em situation. thoughts?
 
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Posted: #3
BOL JFen, UMass would have to be defined a "drop dead" for St Louis instead of a let down.  What am I missing.  Something big on tap for the Bilikens next game or just the back to back roadies, with letdown.  UMass basically a one man show and I know a coach you can plan for that.  Not knocking the play, just hard to imagine.  Like I said, BOL
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by 222bad:

BOL JFen, UMass would have to be defined a "drop dead" for St Louis instead of a let down.  What am I missing.  Something big on tap for the Bilikens next game or just the back to back roadies, with letdown.  UMass basically a one man show and I know a coach you can plan for that.  Not knocking the play, just hard to imagine.  Like I said, BOL


Yah, back-to-back road games, especially in a rugged league like the A-10, is a really tough task. UMASS is really, really good at the Mullins Center and is expecting its biggest crowd in several years. SLU ended Xavier's 43-game A-10 homecourt winning streak, so bringing that same intensity to Amherst probably isn't going to happen. UMASS also had a full week to prepare.
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by 4degreeswarmer:

That SDSU line reeks so bad. I almost never play the "too easy side" on those but SDSU looks so good. If they can win wire to wire in NM and wyoming I dont know why going up to Fort Collins should be basically a pk em situation. thoughts?


Combo of SDSU on the tail end of a two-game MWC road trip combined with a desperate Colorado State squad that just got waxed in its last two games @ Wyoming and @ New Mexico.
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:



Yah, back-to-back road games, especially in a rugged league like the A-10, is a really tough task. UMASS is really, really good at the Mullins Center and is expecting its biggest crowd in several years. SLU ended Xavier's 43-game A-10 homecourt winning streak, so bringing that same intensity to Amherst probably isn't going to happen. UMASS also had a full week to prepare.
  Thanks for the response, one week to prepare is the same reason i just locked in a small ML on Fairfield +120 tonight.  BOL
 
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Posted: #7

JFen, Nevada should be in a letdown spot, but they haven't done so yet looking ahead to Utah St they beat idaho and looking ahead to nmst' they waxed Fresno. They have won su 5 straight road games, why do you expect them to be flat against a bad team like LT?

l

 

 

 

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s

 

 
Prospect
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Posted: #8

6 may be too many, but Nevada is playing really well.  Could be a little letdown after knocking off NM State in Las Cruces, but Nevada has a great ATS record, and has won 14 straight.  I may tease it down or parlay em on the money line.

As I've posted elsewhere, I really like St. Mary's getting points at Provo.  I agree with you on Wyoming, and I like WVA  GL.

 
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Posted: #9
I'm going to have to learn the hard way on SDSU. Their 52-5 the last 2 seasons, they didn't get there by losing games to teams like Colorado State. I get where you're coming from with CSU badly needing a win and SDSU on a 2 game roadie but man the talent gap between these 2 games is off the charts, just as it was against Wyoming. 
 
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Posted: #10
Liked Georgia State too, but revenge angle for VCU likely going to keep me away
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by bigbozo:

JFen, Nevada should be in a letdown spot, but they haven't done so yet looking ahead to Utah St they beat idaho and looking ahead to nmst' they waxed Fresno. They have won su 5 straight road games, why do you expect them to be flat against a bad team like LT?



I think it's a combination of beating the co-preseason WAC favorite in Las Cruces and some really tough travel going for a game in Ruston, LA less than 48 hours later. LA Tech isn't awful and their pressure defense feasts on unfocused teams. Hoping for a better number.
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by daviddaman24:

I'm going to have to learn the hard way on SDSU. Their 52-5 the last 2 seasons, they didn't get there by losing games to teams like Colorado State. I get where you're coming from with CSU badly needing a win and SDSU on a 2 game roadie but man the talent gap between these 2 games is off the charts, just as it was against Wyoming. 


Big advantage inside for the Aztecs. Fairly even on the perimeter with all of those CSU sharpshooters and a good initiator in Eikmeier. I agree with you that SDSU has been grossly undervalued, though,

Forgot that Georgia State already beat VCU. No interest now.
 
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Posted: #13
West Virginia +11 @ Syracuse (1 unit)

Melo officially out. This line is going nowhere but down. Small money line shot when it becomes available, too. Love the 'Neers off of a bad road loss and bringing in one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. Syracuse just cannot clear its own glass and not having Melo against a rugged team like WVU is a major problem. Kevin Jones could have a field day.
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:



Big advantage inside for the Aztecs. Fairly even on the perimeter with all of those CSU sharpshooters and a good initiator in Eikmeier. I agree with you that SDSU has been grossly undervalued, though,

Forgot that Georgia State already beat VCU. No interest now.

I do understand the angle though, I know Neil likes CSU. My homer glasses could be clouding my judgement a little but I just can't see how CSU wins. We'll see I guess. 
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:

West Virginia +11 @ Syracuse (1 unit)

Melo officially out. This line is going nowhere but down. Small money line shot when it becomes available, too. Love the 'Neers off of a bad road loss and bringing in one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. Syracuse just cannot clear its own glass and not having Melo against a rugged team like WVU is a major problem. Kevin Jones could have a field day.


Cuse has had some time to make adjustments to the loss of Melo and I thought they did a much better job handling Yancy Gates as the game went along. Jones will gets his, but I don't really trust the WVU shooters against the Orange zone. No play for me but GL
 
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Posted: #16
good luck this week jfen
 
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Posted: #17
one quick question...i followed your plays the other day on wednesday  and lost 7 plays, yet in your record to date you have yourself going from 149 losses to 154 losses..thats only 5 losers for wednesdays plays...just wondering?
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by gd2436:

one quick question...i followed your plays the other day on wednesday  and lost 7 plays, yet in your record to date you have yourself going from 149 losses to 154 losses..thats only 5 losers for wednesdays plays...just wondering?


I went from memory and didn't do an actual count.

200-156
 
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Posted: #19
Add Brown to the leans list. Looking for 12-15 as a Harvard fade.
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:



Big advantage inside for the Aztecs. Fairly even on the perimeter with all of those CSU sharpshooters and a good initiator in Eikmeier. I agree with you that SDSU has been grossly undervalued, though,



Just some food for thought. Small sample, but through 4 conference games, CSU is only scoring 0.960 pts per possession vs 1.109 (#39) that they rank out at for the year. Offensive production has seen a huge drop off last 2 weeks and faces a defense in SDSt that is just as good as what they just faced vs New Mexico and Wyoming. And they were only able to manage 103 total points in those two games.

Now obviously they are at home and Aztecs playing 3rd road game in last 4 -- just tough to fade this San Diego St team right now.

GL with your card
 
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Posted: #21
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by riccio14:



Just some food for thought. Small sample, but through 4 conference games, CSU is only scoring 0.960 pts per possession vs 1.109 (#39) that they rank out at for the year. Offensive production has seen a huge drop off last 2 weeks and faces a defense in SDSt that is just as good as what they just faced vs New Mexico and Wyoming. And they were only able to manage 103 total points in those two games.

Now obviously they are at home and Aztecs playing 3rd road game in last 4 -- just tough to fade this San Diego St team right now.

GL with your card

Well said. I've been saying that with each game yet people (even good cappers) continue to fade them. Always ends with the same result... an SDSU cover. 
 
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Posted: #23
Saint Louis @ UMASS +4.5 (1 unit)
 
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Posted: #24
Who are you taking in that game? UMass with the points at home?
 
 
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Posted: #25
What do you think about a 3 pick parlay of Colorado. Miss St. And Iowa State. 
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