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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Tuesday Hoops
nropp11
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#1
Posted: 1/24/2012 11:05:50 AM
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 42-33, +11.90
January Leans: 37-33


I’m going to take a shot on Ball State tonight. Cross-divisional match-ups start up in the MAC, and not too many of them will be important come the end of the season and seeding for the MAC tournament, but this is one of the few that will. For starters, both lead their current version, and I’d be stunned if Ball State doesn’t win the West half of the MAC by a few games. They’re simply better than everyone in that half. They’re more physical, they can defend, and they can shoot it a ton better than what that half of the MAC can do. The basis for the play here, is that it’s just not a good spot at all for Akron. For one, they’re coming off a huge rivalry game that they won. Second, they’re coming off an incredibly tough four game stretch on their own half of the MAC where they looked far from decent in those games. Sure, they won 3 of them. However, they struggled against a similar Bowling Green squad, they won the Ohio game based solely on officiating (I rarely go into the officiating, but if you watched that game, it was borderline horrific – and I had Akron there), they looked terrible at Buffalo, and as I previously mentioned, they just beat their rival in a game was predicted as the other half of the MAC’s title game. They now hit the road here with Ball State. If you look at Ball State’s season, they’ve played some very easy competition as they have one of the worst strength of schedule’s in the country. I’m not a big strength of schedule guy until the postseason, but this can be looked at a few ways. One, they haven’t played a strong enough schedule to be tested in a game like this. I can agree with that. But the other side of the coin, is that they hold value because they haven’t been tested. I think it’s safe to say Akron’s been tested, but have they been tested too much? Like I said, they’re coming off a brutal four game stretch, four differing styles, and come into a fifth here. I don’t think the strength of schedule is all that important in this matchup, but it’s one of the reasons that Ball State isn’t laying more here. Back to how Ball State’s schedule has panned out, they’ve struggled against snails and zones in all of their losses. The Morehead press and zone baffled them (it’s baffling everyone), as did the Cuse style zone that Eastern Michigan is currently running through the MAC with (they’re 4-1, but once teams see it a second time, they’re going to get exposed). Akron’s not going to play zone, and they have shown no reason to slow the tempo. Ball State will welcome that, and the offense should look better as a result. These two teams match-up extremely well in the paint, and I give the guard advantage to Ball State, which is where I want the advantage if this game gets up and down. That, along with Ball State’s outside shooting should be the determining factor in the game. Not only that, but the best interior defender in the MAC is probably Zeke Marshall from Akron. Obviously, Ball State’s best player is Jones in the paint. Here’s what’s going to be different. Dambrot never, ever, ever double teams anyone. He never has, and he’s probably not going to do that here. He depends on a man-to-man defense with help from everywhere, but no double teams at all. As I mentioned, Marshall’s a really good defender, but he can’t guard Jones. He can’t step out of the paint and guard on the perimeter, and he won’t be able to keep up with him outside of the block in the perimeter iso sets that Ball State runs from him. If they don’t double-team Jones, he’s going to have a really good game, and they’d be the first team in the MAC that hasn’t done it all year. Bring Marshall out of the paint, and it opens up other lanes of scoring, and if by chance they do double, then I get more open looks from the perimeter than normal. From a strictly motivational standpoint, the spot is prime for Ball State. They just went on the road, completed a successful roadtrip, and return home to face the defending MAC champ, while that defending MAC champ just won it’s game of the year against its rival. This is a big, big, big game for Ball State, and I don’t think they disappoint.

5* Ball State -1

One more, maybe two...

GL
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#2
Posted: 1/24/2012 11:08:27 AM
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#3
Posted: 1/24/2012 11:11:40 AM
keep rolling bud, love the T-Shirt.
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#4
Posted: 1/24/2012 11:12:03 AM
Thanks Neil
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Posted: 1/24/2012 11:12:28 AM
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#6
Posted: 1/24/2012 11:30:32 AM
"I definitely think it's a big game," Ball State senior forward Jarrod Jones said. "... I think starting off playing Akron is a great way for us to go into the battle with the East and set the tone for the rest of those games."
glta
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#7
Posted: 1/24/2012 11:39:39 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nropp11:

November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 42-33, +11.90
January Leans: 37-33


I’m going to take a shot on Ball State tonight. Cross-divisional match-ups start up in the MAC, and not too many of them will be important come the end of the season and seeding for the MAC tournament, but this is one of the few that will. For starters, both lead their current version, and I’d be stunned if Ball State doesn’t win the West half of the MAC by a few games. They’re simply better than everyone in that half. They’re more physical, they can defend, and they can shoot it a ton better than what that half of the MAC can do. The basis for the play here, is that it’s just not a good spot at all for Akron. For one, they’re coming off a huge rivalry game that they won. Second, they’re coming off an incredibly tough four game stretch on their own half of the MAC where they looked far from decent in those games. Sure, they won 3 of them. However, they struggled against a similar Bowling Green squad, they won the Ohio game based solely on officiating (I rarely go into the officiating, but if you watched that game, it was borderline horrific – and I had Akron there), they looked terrible at Buffalo, and as I previously mentioned, they just beat their rival in a game was predicted as the other half of the MAC’s title game. They now hit the road here with Ball State. If you look at Ball State’s season, they’ve played some very easy competition as they have one of the worst strength of schedule’s in the country. I’m not a big strength of schedule guy until the postseason, but this can be looked at a few ways. One, they haven’t played a strong enough schedule to be tested in a game like this. I can agree with that. But the other side of the coin, is that they hold value because they haven’t been tested. I think it’s safe to say Akron’s been tested, but have they been tested too much? Like I said, they’re coming off a brutal four game stretch, four differing styles, and come into a fifth here. I don’t think the strength of schedule is all that important in this matchup, but it’s one of the reasons that Ball State isn’t laying more here. Back to how Ball State’s schedule has panned out, they’ve struggled against snails and zones in all of their losses. The Morehead press and zone baffled them (it’s baffling everyone), as did the Cuse style zone that Eastern Michigan is currently running through the MAC with (they’re 4-1, but once teams see it a second time, they’re going to get exposed). Akron’s not going to play zone, and they have shown no reason to slow the tempo. Ball State will welcome that, and the offense should look better as a result. These two teams match-up extremely well in the paint, and I give the guard advantage to Ball State, which is where I want the advantage if this game gets up and down. That, along with Ball State’s outside shooting should be the determining factor in the game. Not only that, but the best interior defender in the MAC is probably Zeke Marshall from Akron. Obviously, Ball State’s best player is Jones in the paint. Here’s what’s going to be different. Dambrot never, ever, ever double teams anyone. He never has, and he’s probably not going to do that here. He depends on a man-to-man defense with help from everywhere, but no double teams at all. As I mentioned, Marshall’s a really good defender, but he can’t guard Jones. He can’t step out of the paint and guard on the perimeter, and he won’t be able to keep up with him outside of the block in the perimeter iso sets that Ball State runs from him. If they don’t double-team Jones, he’s going to have a really good game, and they’d be the first team in the MAC that hasn’t done it all year. Bring Marshall out of the paint, and it opens up other lanes of scoring, and if by chance they do double, then I get more open looks from the perimeter than normal. From a strictly motivational standpoint, the spot is prime for Ball State. They just went on the road, completed a successful roadtrip, and return home to face the defending MAC champ, while that defending MAC champ just won it’s game of the year against its rival. This is a big, big, big game for Ball State, and I don’t think they disappoint.

5* Ball State -1

One more, maybe two...

GL

Well now, Akron has won 7 straight vs Ball St, tough call?

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#8
Posted: 1/24/2012 11:45:50 AM

GL today Nropp  

Any thoughts on the over?

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nropp11
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#9
Posted: 1/24/2012 11:47:39 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by RLeith35:

Well now, Akron has won 7 straight vs Ball St, tough call?


Septuple revenge!
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#10
Posted: 1/24/2012 11:58:40 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nropp11:


Septuple revenge!

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#11
Posted: 1/24/2012 12:11:49 PM
Thanks Neil.  Ball State is better than their strength of schedule and playing at home, and even at -1.5 they look like the right side.  I think E Mich is getting a bucketful of points at Buffalo, and there's value there even at +13.5 (opening line was +16.5).  Their zone should keep them in the game.  GL 
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#12
Posted: 1/24/2012 12:22:39 PM
Neill I Love you,,,,,,,,,,, But

ATS Stats

Akron 9-6-0,,,, last 6 starts 4-2,,, win streak 1-0,,,getting +1.5 /+2
Ball,,,,5-6-1,,,, last 6 starts 2-4,,, win Streak 0-1,,
Akron ML + 105

NNNNNNNNNRRRRRRRROOOOOOOOOOOOOOPPPPPPP
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nropp11
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#13
Posted: 1/24/2012 12:23:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lbreno:

Thanks Neil.  Ball State is better than their strength of schedule and playing at home, and even at -1.5 they look like the right side.  I think E Mich is getting a bucketful of points at Buffalo, and there's value there even at +13.5 (opening line was +16.5).  Their zone should keep them in the game.  GL 

Yah, that's a scary one to take part in. I played Buffalo at Bowling Green for the sole fact that BG was going to play a zone. It worked in the 1H as Buffalo was 1/13 from the three-point line (AND THEY ONLY TRAILED BY 1!!!). In the 2H, I think they started out 8/8 from beyond the arc. When this team gets hot, they can shoot it as good as any team in the country from out there. 

They also play zone, so they practice against it often, and this will be their second straight against it. Tough to go against.

GL
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#14
Posted: 1/24/2012 12:24:26 PM

Ah, the old septuple revenge angle.   

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#15
Posted: 1/24/2012 12:24:28 PM
Ibreno,,,,,
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nropp11
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#16
Posted: 1/24/2012 12:26:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by stevo1:

Neill I Love you,,,,,,,,,,, But

ATS Stats

Akron 9-6-0,,,, last 6 starts 4-2,,, win streak 1-0,,,getting +1.5 /+2
Ball,,,,5-6-1,,,, last 6 starts 2-4,,, win Streak 0-1,,
Akron ML + 105

NNNNNNNNNRRRRRRRROOOOOOOOOOOOOOPPPPPPP

Stevoooooooooooooooooooooooooooo,

Your method, not mine. None of that stuff makes sense to me.

GL
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#17
Posted: 1/24/2012 12:29:59 PM
ATS Stats

EMU 7-7-0,,,, last 6 starts 6-1,,,,,,,, win streak 3-0,,,getting +13.5,,
Buff,,,,5-8-2,,,, last 6 starts 3-2-1,,, win Streak 2-0,,
EMU +13.5
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#18
Posted: 1/24/2012 12:36:02 PM
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#19
Posted: 1/24/2012 12:43:34 PM
Septuple revenge.  Eighth times a charm  
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#20
Posted: 1/24/2012 12:46:51 PM
Neil, what do u think of G Tech at home since Miami is playin on the road after  a tough loss on Sunday to NC State?

That kid Shane Larkin looked great in the 2nd half for UM but UM was missing so many 3s. I assume they would be better today though since they do have shooters.
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#21
Posted: 1/24/2012 12:48:32 PM
Hi Nropp, if you have time, can I get some of your thoughts on Michigan +5 and Baylor -5.5 please. Two very "square" plays I know, but sometimes thats just how I see things...I will almost for sure be on Baylor but the Michigan line catching more than 2 buckets has me intrigued.

Thanks for your time as always, it is much appreciated! GL on Ball st.
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#22
Posted: 1/24/2012 12:56:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sportsanalyst:

Neil, what do u think of G Tech at home since Miami is playin on the road after  a tough loss on Sunday to NC State?

That kid Shane Larkin looked great in the 2nd half for UM but UM was missing so many 3s. I assume they would be better today though since they do have shooters.

Yah, Miami's going to launch three's all night. Curious to see what GTech does here. The second half of their most recent game, they put Glen Rice Jr. at the point, and they looked really good. Not sure if it's something they can do for a full game, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it tonight. Tough game, really. GTech has UNC on tap as well.

GL
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#23
Posted: 1/24/2012 1:03:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Dosan23:

Hi Nropp, if you have time, can I get some of your thoughts on Michigan +5 and Baylor -5.5 please. Two very "square" plays I know, but sometimes thats just how I see things...I will almost for sure be on Baylor but the Michigan line catching more than 2 buckets has me intrigued.


Thanks for your time as always, it is much appreciated! GL on Ball st.

Michigan continues it’s three game roady with game #2 here before taking part in game #3 against Ohio State. Michigan was waxed by Purdue by 23 on it’s home court last year, so there’s got to be a tiny revenge angle coming into this game for them. Purdue is coming off a pretty lethargic effort at Michigan State a few days back, but that could have been the effect of some weather and travel issues that prevented them from showing up until a few hours before the game. I wouldn’t look too much into Michigan’s loss at Arkansas as it really didn’t mean much, as Michigan sits atop the Big-10 in a tie for first place. Purdue’s 5-0 coming off a loss this year, and Michigan hasn’t won a road game yet on the season (although the opponents in those games are 43-5 at home on the year). Probably a pretty big game for both teams in this spot, and one that should have some entertainment value, but I don't see value in backing either squad.

As for Baylor, it really just depends on how they come out of the gates from a mental standpoint. They're definitely the better team, but how they rebound with Texas on deck is an unknown guess. They do have a bit of revenge I believe as they lost last year in the B-12 tourney to Oklahoma. I think the total's a bit high. After the two losses and up-tempo games, I think it's fair to say that they don't want to play that fast, and they don't look good doing it. This game should slow down tonight, and the Oklahoma zone should help. I will be leaning under at the very worst.

GL
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#24
Posted: 1/24/2012 1:11:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by RLeith35:

Well now, Akron has won 7 straight vs Ball St, tough call?

That's even better, Ball St. will deifnitely bring more intensity and be more focus, just like the other day North Dakota had beat South Dakota about 10 in a row, and SD finally got it's revenge. Luv the pic
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#25
Posted: 1/24/2012 1:13:27 PM
Thanks for the insight Neil!
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