YTD: 7-7
My Play: Austin Peay +4.5 and ML +175…….This line has moved in Peay favor with more people on Murray St
Not a big fan of this low number as I thought I would get at least +7 as I saw it there for a minute, wake up today and its down to 4.5. O Well
This is the hardest week left in Murray St schedule in the regular season. If they get through this week unbeaten, there is no reason to think they will go undefeated in the regular season. With this being said, this is a perfect spot to fade Murray St. They are going into Austin Peay for one of the biggest mid major rivalry games in college basketball, the 112th meeting. Regardless of records both teams will come pumped up for the game. After a very disappointing non-conference record and start to conference play, this is Peays BIG game in front of their home fans. Nothing would be better for this team than to knock off their rival, who is undefeated and nationally ranked.
Murray St will be without 6’7” Senior Forward Ivan Aska who is a 4 year player and averaged 20+ min every year. Also just a random note the Racers 27th all time leading scorer. This year he is averaging 12.6 PPG and 6 Reb. Not only are they losing a valuable asset to their team, they are now limited on their bench as they will probably play 8 players significant minutes. Filling in for Aska will probably be Latreze Mushatt (6’5”) transfer from UMKC who has been averaging about 17 minutes while Aska averages about 27 which means they will have to play Mushatt more minutes than he is used to or go to the bench more often. Mushatt has a completely different role in this Murray St system not being near the scorer he was at UMKC. This year Mushatt is averaging 3.5 PPG and 4.2 Reb. Now with Aska being out they also lose height, which will be a key factor tonight in this game. Murray St starting lineup is 6-0, 6-1, 6-3, 6-5, 6-7 which ends up being a little smaller than usual but the real problem is the bench. They have one player on the bench that they play that is over 6-3 and this is Brandon Garrett who only averages about 14 min a game and 3.3 PPG and 2.7 Reb. Wouldn’t say he is a strong big man off the bench. I know I keep going back to the bench but this is the game I feel Murray St feels the effects of losinf Aska
A note to add is that Murray St game on Wed against Eastern Kentucky showed that Murray St took a little step back without Aska. The score is no indication of how close this game was. Eastern Kentucky was within 2 with 4 minutes to play but the better team pulled away to get a 9 pt win.
Austin Peay has been a disappointment to say the least this year. They have enough talent to compete for the OVC this year, as they were pre season favorites, but just haven’t been able to find themselves. Peay has the talent to compete with Murray St and I don’t see why they wont come to play. The crowd @ Peay will be loud and wild for this game, something Murray maybe has only seen at Memphis this year. Peay starts a considerably larger lineup, 6-1, 6-4, 6-5, 6-7, 6-8, which is going to play a big role on the glass both defensive and offensive. I expect Peay to win the rebounding edge in this game and imagine they will get more 2nd chance shots than Murray St is used to giving up. On the defensive end Peay length will help tremendously also. Peavy guards will have a few inches on Murray guards making it harder to shot over the top, have to get a little more spacing. Peavy bench is not deep as they probably only play 7 guys decent minutes tomorrow but have decent size to come off the bench, 6-6 and 6-3.Peay got John Fraley back 5 games ago @ Tenn, where they went and won a nail bitter. He was a huge lose to this team to start the season as he leads the team in reb (8.2 per game) and scores about 8 PPG. Now he is back and he helps fill the paint.
Tomorrow I am expecting Melvin Baker, Josh Terry, and TyShwan Edmondson to continue to score for this team and wouldn’t be surprised if one or two of them had a big game. After all that said I just feel this is the one spot from here on out Murray St is going to run into a real tough road test, with a team who is actually just as talented as them. Not saying they haven’t played any team just as talented but a tough spot and a lot of pressure on Murray St with the national spotlight on them. Peavy hasn’t played since New Years Eve, having 7 days to prep. Murray St played Wed so they didn’t have near the prep time Peay had, unless the Racers were looking ahead to this game which I can’t imagine being the case as they have a perfect season going.
Sorry for rambling but had a lot to say about this game. Have had it eyed for awhile now.
GL
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