YTD: 7-3 (last night 2-0)
This post will be little shorter than normal since tip-off is less than 90 minutes away, but the first game of the day provides a great situation to back an over based on recent results.
Play: Valparaiso / IUPUI Over 145
Both teams bring an above average pace of over 67.5 possessions per game, an adjusted offensive efficiency of scoring more than 1 point per possession, and an adjusted defensive efficiency of allowing more than 1 point per possession. All three factors are great to have when playing an over.
IUPUI enters today’s match-up allowing 1.059 pts per poss (ranked #278) and Valpo is the perfect match-up to exploit this soft defense. They come into the game ranked #2 in the country in 2P FG%, making 59% of their shots! Additionally, they get to the FT line with ease – averaging a 1 FT attempt for every 2 shot attempts (11th best in the country) with nearly 25% of their points coming from the charity stripe. As I’ve mentioned in previous posts, it’s always nice to back on an over when teams can score without the clock moving.
Situationally, it’s a great spot to back an over as well. IUPUI just played to a total of 123 vs slow paced Ball St in their last game. Prior to that, they had played four straight games that exceeded 72 possessions with every game exceeding 150 points. Valpo is in a similar spot. The Crusaders are coming off a total of 107 vs Northern Illinois (slow paced and 3rd worst adj off eff in the country). Prior to that, they had played 4 straight games that exceeded 71 possessions with every game exceeding 149 points.
I expect a flow to the game that gets each team 70+ possessions, and based on the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies of each team—both teams should be expected to score into the mid-70’s.
Good luck if you decide to make a play
great write up tho, keep it up 
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