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| Already licking my chops for the Bowl games, but I have been crushing it in college thus far... Tonight is a play worthy of a community share since I have few minutes to write it up. ST JOHNS certainly has always been a brand name from being in the Big East, but lately and slowly the Mid-Majors have grown in stature amongst the population with deep tournament runs (Gonzaga, Butler, Valpo, Utah St....etc), but still, there is usually not a public following of these mid-size conferences until they print out the 66 team brackets in March. A quick look at my index shows that DETROIT is ranked 276 in the nation overall and ST JOHNS is number 272. So basically on a neutral floor I would have Detroit (on an average afternoon) at about pick'em. The oddsmakers clearly couldn't do that, because they know the public will bet St. Johns in a pick'em type situation every time, so to help balance the money, they used a pick. Since that point it's been all St. John's money as the linke has clicked at most books to St. Johns -1.5. What has NOT been factored in, is that tonight Detroit's home court index rating should probably be doubled... as the building is sold out and Detroit will be dedicating the basket ball floor to Former Head Coach Dick Vitale in a pre game ceremony. The building is sold out and the energy in that building can be quite menacing to road teams. So the real value....should be around Detroit -5.5 or 6 in my opinion. I did consider that St Johns has a higher overall rating, but it comes right back to earth in looking at their schedule strrength...that so far is ranked 317 (one of the easiest in the nation so far.) Detroit has had it a little tougher, playing to a 154 strength schedule so far. It's no secret on COVERS, that I like certain spots, when there is a significant event (that will create a giant wave of momentum for my team... that could push my team's will power even beyond just trying to win the game.... When a player says that tonight's isn't just a game....tonight is "WAR".....thats the player I want to be betting on. Tonight we have Detroit in one of those situations, and we have home court and a bad line to boot (due to St. John's public notoriety.) Take Detroit U +1.5, College Game of The Month! | |
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