The Vegas odds makers opened Syracuse at 7 and it quickly hopped to 9.Evansville opened at 5 and quickly jumped to 7.LSU opened at 15 but is up ½ a point in the early parts of the day.Georgetown has remained at it’s current number and I see it falling to even a pick em.
Ok, so when you look at Kenpom.com or masseyratings or whatever database you may utilize the scores tend to be tainted early.A computer can’t measure exhaustion.A computer lacks emotion.I’m sometimes a feel player but often use statistics to give me a starting point.
LSU play is pretty basic (oddsbuster good writeup):South Alabama hasn’t beaten anyone of any consequence, they played two good teams losing by 15 their first game and 50 their next.LSU is the better team and should win this by 20.
Evansville-Stats have them winning by 5 to 9 points but Ill Chicago lost two Seniors who played majority of time while Evansville returns all 5 starters.Line should be 11 or more..
Georgetown-Should be a close game but when GTOWN starters where on the bench late in 2nd half after blowing Chaminade, Memphis’s starters where in double OT in grueling matchup with Tennessee.Look for GTOWN to pull this one off late.
Syracuse-This is 1st real test for the Orangemen as they’ve faced 4 cupcakes so far.I like taking Orangemen under double digit spread at home (basically) vs a team who hasn’t beaten anyone of any consequence.I think the Hokies are decent but it looks like the Orange have a bench too.This is not good for big east or any other opponents.
The Vegas odds makers opened Syracuse at 7 and it quickly hopped to 9.Evansville opened at 5 and quickly jumped to 7.LSU opened at 15 but is up ½ a point in the early parts of the day.Georgetown has remained at it’s current number and I see it falling to even a pick em.
Ok, so when you look at Kenpom.com or masseyratings or whatever database you may utilize the scores tend to be tainted early.A computer can’t measure exhaustion.A computer lacks emotion.I’m sometimes a feel player but often use statistics to give me a starting point.
LSU play is pretty basic (oddsbuster good writeup):South Alabama hasn’t beaten anyone of any consequence, they played two good teams losing by 15 their first game and 50 their next.LSU is the better team and should win this by 20.
Evansville-Stats have them winning by 5 to 9 points but Ill Chicago lost two Seniors who played majority of time while Evansville returns all 5 starters.Line should be 11 or more..
Georgetown-Should be a close game but when GTOWN starters where on the bench late in 2nd half after blowing Chaminade, Memphis’s starters where in double OT in grueling matchup with Tennessee.Look for GTOWN to pull this one off late.
Syracuse-This is 1st real test for the Orangemen as they’ve faced 4 cupcakes so far.I like taking Orangemen under double digit spread at home (basically) vs a team who hasn’t beaten anyone of any consequence.I think the Hokies are decent but it looks like the Orange have a bench too.This is not good for big east or any other opponents.
BTW, I'm assuming you have a model for your capping... or do you go by your gut?
I use multiple databases and then come to a conclusion, but as stated above feel is important to handicapping. Math guys wouldn't be happy with that statement but my mind doesn't think exactly like them.
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Quote Originally Posted by Lar1212:
BTW, I'm assuming you have a model for your capping... or do you go by your gut?
I use multiple databases and then come to a conclusion, but as stated above feel is important to handicapping. Math guys wouldn't be happy with that statement but my mind doesn't think exactly like them.
I use multiple databases and then come to a conclusion, but as stated above feel is important to handicapping. Math guys wouldn't be happy with that statement but my mind doesn't think exactly like them.
Totally fair. I appreciate your feedback. I think "feel" is important too.
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Quote Originally Posted by Gordon Gekko:
I use multiple databases and then come to a conclusion, but as stated above feel is important to handicapping. Math guys wouldn't be happy with that statement but my mind doesn't think exactly like them.
Totally fair. I appreciate your feedback. I think "feel" is important too.
Thanks for the write-ups Gordon...as a UCONN fan, I think the Big East is gonna be a two-team race this season...both Cuse and the Huskies are deep and talented...gl tonight
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Thanks for the write-ups Gordon...as a UCONN fan, I think the Big East is gonna be a two-team race this season...both Cuse and the Huskies are deep and talented...gl tonight
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good luck! 
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