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MWC conference OFFICIAL plays..... 11-11-11

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Captain
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Ready for another great season in the MWC.  Have done my fair share of homework regarding the changes to the conference over the summer.

Plays will be up within the next 90 minutes in this thread, just getting a thread started to see if anyone has any thoughts regarding the MWC games on the board today.

Also trying to figure out how much will be the right amount as I have a big play in comparison to my power rankings, but I know this early they aren't as strong as they will be as the season progresses.  Trying to stay conservative for each team's first 5 games.



 
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Posted: #2
good luck this season sharp
 
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Posted: #3
BOL this season
 
Captain
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Appreciate the love gentlemen.  
 
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 Sharp
 
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Posted: #6
BOL !
 
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Posted: #8
Good luck this season Sharp.
 
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Posted: #9
Best of luck sharp. 

Got any good futures? Ha just kidding.

Lets make some  this season buddy
 
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I have focused on WAC mostly.  Guess a lean to Utah State based on a rockin home court, but so many ???? there.  Gonzo likes CSU tonight - thinks they will play small, which should fit in with CSU new look.


 
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Captain
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2010 World Cup: +84 units
2010 MMA: +32 units
2011 MMA YTD: -34.3 units
2011 Tennis: +3 units 
2011 NFL: +.7 unit 
2011 MWC NCAAF: 1.1 units 
'10-'11 Mountain West NCAAB YTD: +22.7 units


Not looking to get heavily invested this early into the year, but I have SDSU as a 29 point favorite.  Laying 24 is ridiculos, but I convinced myself already it isn't worth firing hard yet.  Reduced it from a 6 unit play where this type of differential would normally be.

SDSU -24 for 3 units
Army +12.5 for 1 unit

Leans
Montana +6.5






 
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How do you formulate your own lines with no games played yet?
 
Captain
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

How do you formulate your own lines with no games played yet?

Power rankings of each team.   

Pretty simple concept a professional gambler like yourself would know.  
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

How do you formulate your own lines with no games played yet?

The more I think of it, the more dumb that question is.

How can anyone bet on the first games of the season in any sport?  I mean the oddsmakers haven't seen them play yet. 


 
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Crap - Im oppo.  On Bryant. 

Not sure how you could lay 24 with a team with only 8 scholarship players, 3 who have never played at the college level before.  Bryant doesn't have much of a pulse, but both play a slower pace.  At 63 possessions or under, SDSU will have to be pretty efficient to cover 24.  And Bryant is a heavy 3pt team.  If they get a few to fall...
 
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Sorry stick - that was a copy from my thread - wasn't meant to be obnoxious. 

Generally I like this angle - lots of points and a slow pace - but as you say...we don't know much yet.
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by BandosWB:

Crap - Im oppo.  On Bryant. 

Not sure how you could lay 24 with a team with only 8 scholarship players, 3 who have never played at the college level before.  Bryant doesn't have much of a pulse, but both play a slower pace.  At 63 possessions or under, SDSU will have to be pretty efficient to cover 24.  And Bryant is a heavy 3pt team.  If they get a few to fall...

No worries bud.  It is my early numbers so although I have confidence in them, not like I will in the next few weeks.

I expect SDSU to control the tempo.  I have them projected to be a much higher scoring team this year as they lose the defensive ability of Leonard, White and Thomas.  I am a tad concerned about who is going to guard Alex Francis, but SDSU has one of the best home atmospheres in the country.  I expect Bryant to struggle mightily to hang in the game.

Obviously with a number this size motivation towards the end could come into play with SDSU, as we know Bryant will not stop trying.

Different sides tonight, but BOL 
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by sharpstick:


Power rankings of each team.   

Pretty simple concept a professional gambler like yourself would know.  

Power rankings? Based on what? Preseason ranking are shit. So you have a 3 unit play based off a 5 point difference in "power rankings" without seeing either team play.....good idea.

A pro capper like doesnt need my opinion though..... 

 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Power rankings? Based on what? Preseason ranking are shit. So you have a 3 unit play based off a 5 point difference in "power rankings" without seeing either team play.....good idea.

A pro capper like doesnt need my opinion though..... 


My power rankings are based on my knowledge of the teams I wager on.  

A 5 point difference is a huge play in my power rankings.  They are very in depth.

I scaled back understanding the fact that these aren't as strong as they will be 3 weeks down the road.  

Pre-season rankings?    Who even mentioned that.  Outside of comparing my pre season MWC rankings to the pre season poll I could care less of who is ranked where.

*This just in*

No college football lines the first week next season.  The oddsmakers haven't seen them play.



 
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There is no sense to explain the details of them to an avid sharp () like yourself.

You are obviously clueless on what a power ranking entails in terms of making spreads and figuring out what games to play.

You must be above that.
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by sharpstick:

There is no sense to explain the details of them to an avid sharp () like yourself.

You are obviously clueless on what a power ranking entails in terms of making spreads and figuring out what games to play.

You must be above that.

Wow. I am clueless about letting a spreadsheet make my picks, I concur. Your knowledge of the teams you bet on? Sounds more like an excel project. Have fun with that. I like to watch the teams and know my basketball, I'm not as advanced as you.

 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Wow. I am clueless about letting a spreadsheet make my picks, I concur. Your knowledge of the teams you bet on? Sounds more like an excel project. Have fun with that. I like to watch the teams and know my basketball, I'm not as advanced as you.


You're right.  The numbers randomly just pop into Excel.  Like literally....they really just pop in.  No one types them.  I just found that function.  
 
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Posted: #24
SDST
 
 
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Stop the pssing match boys you both are very good cappers that many of us appreciate on here.  Just do what you do and let the $$$$ roll in.

 

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