Quick shout out to all the CBB forum vets. New season. You bet.
Couple of things for starters:
1. Don't complain, and just pay kenpom the $20. It is worth it.
2. I plan on focusing mostly on West Coast ball: MWC, WAC and PAC. Sharpstick is very good on MWC, and as the players I had good reads on are mostly gone, may leave that to him.
3. To any newbies; do yourself a favor and read Kine's stuff. Just the way he breaks down a game will make you a better capper whether you play the game or not.
4. Same with Nropp when he starts posting
5. Don't go against Stick in MWC, or Cruscrenshw in A-10, or gonzo in Colorado games. if anything, just leave those conferences to them and focus elsewhere.
6. There are others who specialize in a conference or a team: Purduepride, Temple and Hawaiiboy come to mind immediately.
6. With so many games a week it is easy to lose discipline. Stay the course and be balling in March.
If I didn't mention you, and you are a conference specialist, please do post!
Best time of the year
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Quick shout out to all the CBB forum vets. New season. You bet.
Couple of things for starters:
1. Don't complain, and just pay kenpom the $20. It is worth it.
2. I plan on focusing mostly on West Coast ball: MWC, WAC and PAC. Sharpstick is very good on MWC, and as the players I had good reads on are mostly gone, may leave that to him.
3. To any newbies; do yourself a favor and read Kine's stuff. Just the way he breaks down a game will make you a better capper whether you play the game or not.
4. Same with Nropp when he starts posting
5. Don't go against Stick in MWC, or Cruscrenshw in A-10, or gonzo in Colorado games. if anything, just leave those conferences to them and focus elsewhere.
6. There are others who specialize in a conference or a team: Purduepride, Temple and Hawaiiboy come to mind immediately.
6. With so many games a week it is easy to lose discipline. Stay the course and be balling in March.
If I didn't mention you, and you are a conference specialist, please do post!
Nice to pick up a unit on that W+M under. Thanks to goat for pointing out that angle. While it did get a bit nervous, and only covered by 5.5, it took a rash of scoring late to make it that close - that game was on pace for under 130 most of the game.
Getting thru the WAC right now. Will post a bit of condensed info that is widely available soon.
Anyone know when College Basketball prospectus comes out? Blue ribbon is fine and all, but the prospectus seems less intent on pleasing the coaches/schools...ie more independent. In the first three weeks, using Prospectus projections, and the logic that teams who prospectus think will improve might be undervalued by linesmakers (and vice versa for teams projected to do worse), I have tried to identify spots where we might be getting good value. Will begin to post those plays, as well as analysis of the WAC games this week.
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Nice to pick up a unit on that W+M under. Thanks to goat for pointing out that angle. While it did get a bit nervous, and only covered by 5.5, it took a rash of scoring late to make it that close - that game was on pace for under 130 most of the game.
Getting thru the WAC right now. Will post a bit of condensed info that is widely available soon.
Anyone know when College Basketball prospectus comes out? Blue ribbon is fine and all, but the prospectus seems less intent on pleasing the coaches/schools...ie more independent. In the first three weeks, using Prospectus projections, and the logic that teams who prospectus think will improve might be undervalued by linesmakers (and vice versa for teams projected to do worse), I have tried to identify spots where we might be getting good value. Will begin to post those plays, as well as analysis of the WAC games this week.
Teams, # of returning starters, in order of projected finish via KPP
Utah St. 11-3, 1 Nevada, 10-4, 5 New Mexico, 8-6, 3 not including McKines HA 7-7, 4 ID 7-7, 1 Fresno 6-8, 3 SJS 5-9, 3 La Tech 4-10, 4
Many have Nevada at the top. With good reason - experience. While I am not sold, I saw this team play some good up-tempo ball last year during their hot stretch. I faded them for a while as they had a lot of new faces, but they return everyone. KP has them making .05 increases on both sids of the ball, but they will have to shoot better. One thing I like about this team is that they get to the line. Something I love. This means they aren't afraid of contact, and they drive. But they have to convert better than 68% from the stripe. They have good size, depth, and can hit the 3ball. BUT, they turn the ball over too much. First test is Missouri state fri.
New Mexico State is an interesting team, and contender. While losing mid-major stud Troy Gillenwater, they do return a nice core: Larouche with his 152 assists/62 steals, Rahman and Nephawe (both over 6'10"), swingman Kabongo, and Wendell McKines returns. Also Walson returns. They are very tall, they drive and get fouled, but need to hit more from the FT line. Their problem is they don't have a perimeter ganme to keep teams honest, and they just play uninspired D at times, tho they defend the 3 well.
The Rest...for know.
This has been Utah State's league, but Tai Wesley, and most of his cast, are gone. And most of the other teams will be rebuilding as well. I will get to blurbs soon, but may wait to see what they actually look like before getting involved.
Lets get to the first games:
Nice to have NMST @ UNCo so gonzo can weigh in. UNCo won the Big sky last year but lose most everyone. 3 dependent team. Betting against them can be dicey as any 3 dep team can get hot esp. at home, but this doesn't seem to be a good matchup on paper for UNCo. Lean NMst here.
Missouri St @ Nev. Weems is a stud, but he is the only returner, they have a new coach, and they will be on the road. Doesn't sound like a good position against a solid, experienced Nev squad. KP has this at Nev -6. Looks tempting, but Weems is really good.
Thoughts?
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Let's familiarize ourselves with the WAC.
Teams, # of returning starters, in order of projected finish via KPP
Utah St. 11-3, 1 Nevada, 10-4, 5 New Mexico, 8-6, 3 not including McKines HA 7-7, 4 ID 7-7, 1 Fresno 6-8, 3 SJS 5-9, 3 La Tech 4-10, 4
Many have Nevada at the top. With good reason - experience. While I am not sold, I saw this team play some good up-tempo ball last year during their hot stretch. I faded them for a while as they had a lot of new faces, but they return everyone. KP has them making .05 increases on both sids of the ball, but they will have to shoot better. One thing I like about this team is that they get to the line. Something I love. This means they aren't afraid of contact, and they drive. But they have to convert better than 68% from the stripe. They have good size, depth, and can hit the 3ball. BUT, they turn the ball over too much. First test is Missouri state fri.
New Mexico State is an interesting team, and contender. While losing mid-major stud Troy Gillenwater, they do return a nice core: Larouche with his 152 assists/62 steals, Rahman and Nephawe (both over 6'10"), swingman Kabongo, and Wendell McKines returns. Also Walson returns. They are very tall, they drive and get fouled, but need to hit more from the FT line. Their problem is they don't have a perimeter ganme to keep teams honest, and they just play uninspired D at times, tho they defend the 3 well.
The Rest...for know.
This has been Utah State's league, but Tai Wesley, and most of his cast, are gone. And most of the other teams will be rebuilding as well. I will get to blurbs soon, but may wait to see what they actually look like before getting involved.
Lets get to the first games:
Nice to have NMST @ UNCo so gonzo can weigh in. UNCo won the Big sky last year but lose most everyone. 3 dependent team. Betting against them can be dicey as any 3 dep team can get hot esp. at home, but this doesn't seem to be a good matchup on paper for UNCo. Lean NMst here.
Missouri St @ Nev. Weems is a stud, but he is the only returner, they have a new coach, and they will be on the road. Doesn't sound like a good position against a solid, experienced Nev squad. KP has this at Nev -6. Looks tempting, but Weems is really good.
KP has ILst (3 returners) taking a small step forward and Fresno (3 retruners) taking a small step back. Oleibe/sheep and Johnson return in the backcpourt, which would indicate a solid core...but they are all turnover prone. However, Ill State didn't force a ton last year.
Illst coach: "how quickly can half of your team, playing their first year of college basketball, become a group that can win most of their games?"
Both teams were challenged offensively last year, butr decent defensively. Ill State is extremely low tempo, Fresno middle of the pack. KP has this at 63-61, my leans at this time would be Fresno, but I think I like the under 125(if offered anywhere, and at that number) better, as both offenses might struggle in the early going. No play as of now.
BYU at Utah State, -1.5
What does life without Jimmer look like? How do 4 new starters meld for Utah State? In a huge rivalry game? These seems like really throwing darts at a board to me. Pass.
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Illinois State v. Fresno State, -3
KP has ILst (3 returners) taking a small step forward and Fresno (3 retruners) taking a small step back. Oleibe/sheep and Johnson return in the backcpourt, which would indicate a solid core...but they are all turnover prone. However, Ill State didn't force a ton last year.
Illst coach: "how quickly can half of your team, playing their first year of college basketball, become a group that can win most of their games?"
Both teams were challenged offensively last year, butr decent defensively. Ill State is extremely low tempo, Fresno middle of the pack. KP has this at 63-61, my leans at this time would be Fresno, but I think I like the under 125(if offered anywhere, and at that number) better, as both offenses might struggle in the early going. No play as of now.
BYU at Utah State, -1.5
What does life without Jimmer look like? How do 4 new starters meld for Utah State? In a huge rivalry game? These seems like really throwing darts at a board to me. Pass.
Not sure how you could lay 24 with a team with only 8 scholarship
players, 3 who have never played at the college level before. Bryant
doesn't have much of a pulse, but both play a slower pace. At 63
possessions or under, SDSU will have to be pretty efficient to cover
24. And Bryant is a heavy 3pt team. If they get a few to fall...Think I talked myself into it.
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Bryant @SDSU -24
Not sure how you could lay 24 with a team with only 8 scholarship
players, 3 who have never played at the college level before. Bryant
doesn't have much of a pulse, but both play a slower pace. At 63
possessions or under, SDSU will have to be pretty efficient to cover
24. And Bryant is a heavy 3pt team. If they get a few to fall...Think I talked myself into it.
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