I will start out saying that I'm a Bama fan but this is my second play on them in the NIT. I took them last Monday night against New Mexico as well.
Bama does everything well defensively. They force turnovers (26th in turnover %), they get steals (1st in steal %), they block shots (12th in block %), they defend the three (27th in three pt % def), and they defend inside the arc (4th in 2 pt % defense). They recover well from defensive mistakes and they do an incredible job of trapping. They score off their defense and they know their defense is what wins ballgames. The only thing they don;t always do well is rebound the missed shots on the defensive end (228th in off reb %). A lot of that is because they do such a good job in helping they get out of position or are forced to rebound with small guards. This Colorado team ranks 90th in offensive rebounding % and that doesn't seem to be much of an advantage.
Colorado hasn't played well defensively in awhile. The last time they held their opponent under 70 was in their home finale against a poor offensive team in Nebraska. I think they will get very frustrated by Bama's suffocating defense. They have had their way throughout the NIT and Kent St showed zero effort on the defensive end against them in the last game. Burks is a great offensive player for Colorado and should be able to get his but the other guys are going to have to be tough with the ball and hit tough shots.
Bama isn't a good 3 point shooting team but they are great in the paint and on the offensive glass. Mitchell is playing at a very high level and should be a matchuo problem for Colorado. Green is very good underneath but has to stay out of foul trouble. Hines is a very good interior defender. Releford, the Bama PG, is playing his best ball of the year. After watching Colrado defend the dribble in their last two games I just don't think they can keep him out of the lane. He is a great finisher despite being undersized.
I just have seen more effort from Bama on the defensive end than Colorado and Colorado won't get all the open looks they've enjoyed lately. I think Bama scores at will in the paint and that will allow them to pressure Colorado in the backcourt. It should be an up and down game with good athletes all over the floor but defense will be the difference.
Alabama 77 Colorado 69
Bama -2.5
I also like Wichita St tonight. They will limit Washington St to one shot and they will score in the paint tonight. Washington St will have to be very good from the perimeter.
Wichita St -3
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