I just can't get a feel for the UTEP/Memphis game so I was reading up on the Boston/Stony Brook game and think I have found a winner. I haven't played this conference all year nor have I watched either of these teams play. However I do think we have a solid play here.
Boston U has won 10 straight overall. They thought if they were fortunate enough to get to the championship game they would likely be playing at Vermont (the AEC top remaining seed host the Championship game). Stony Brook upset Vermont in the semifinals so now Boston U gets to host the Champioship game on their home floor. They have won 9 in a row at home and by an average of over 10 ppg. They are 13-2 at home this year with a one point loss to Quinnipiac and a three point loss to LaSalle. BU is 7-2 ATS this year and 4-0 against conference opponents.
Boston U relied heavily on the three last year. That resulted in a trip to the Championship game before losing at Vermont on this same day last year. John Holland is their best player and their only senior. They have quite a few juniors as well so you can bet they didn't enjoy getting so close to the Big Dance last year before losing and now they have a chance at redemption today. This team still relies heavily on the three to score. Over 35% of their points come from deep which ranks 23rd in the nation.
However a change is philosophy has made this team better especially later in the year. Before their recent game with New Hampshire, UNH's head coach Bill Herrion had this to say - “I think the biggest thing that’s changed with their basketball team is I think early in the year they were shooting a lot of threes,’’ Herrion said. “They’ve kind of cut back on the threes and their offense is much more balanced. The stat that’s really jumping off the page is they’re going to the free throw line and they’re dominating people. When you can get to the free throw line, that’s a heck of an advantage.’’
This team is still capable of draining the three but knowing they can get to the line and as well when the shots aren't falling means they will likely stay away from the long scoring droughts that happen to jump shooting teams. They shoot FT's at almost 73% (70th in the NCAA) and also make over 36% of their threes which ranks 82nd in the country. Holland, who averages 19 ppg, has made over 70 threes but more importantly gets to the line a lot and makes over 85% when he gets there.
Stony Brook has been awful on the offensive end and they are especially bad on the road on the offensive end. They are scoring less than 60 ppg on the road. They only make 31% of their threes and 38% of their FGs away from home. They are actually shooting FTs better away from home but still only make 65.7% from the line. This team is about defense and they are very good at defending three (33rd in the NCAA). In the surprising semifinal win at Vermont they had a great defensive game. They held Vermont to 47 points and 31.8% from the field. The real surprise was their shooting however. Stony Brook made 8-15 from three and shot almost 50% from the field. During their current 4 game winning streak they are shooting almost 50% from the field. The bottom line is they are playing over their head of late.
These teams have had 6 days off to prepare and I'm sure the defenses will rule. There were a couple of interesting ATS stats that jumped out at me. Over the last 3 years when Boston U has played a poor offensive team after 15 games (teams that score less than 64 ppg) they are 7-0 ATS. Also when Boston U has played a good defensive team after 15 games (allows less than 64 ppg) they are 7-0 ATS. That tells me they have been comfortable playing in grind it out style of play and the way they are getting to the line and converting I think we will see them pull away from Stony Brook.
If Boston U is knocking it down from deep then I think we get a blowout winner. Either way I feel that Boston U is the right way to play.
Boston U -6 (1.5 units)
Hot Forum Topics
