Conference Tournaments

Conference Tournaments kick off tonight. I will have futures (all based on value), and a nice selection of games determining on what I feel is value. Plays rank 1-3 units. Nothing more, nothing less. 

I see value in the bottom half of the bracket. I want absolutely no part of the top half of the bracket which contains what I feel is the best three teams in the league in Butler, CSU, and Wright State. Yes, Wisconsin MKE won the top seed, and the tournament is being played in their yard, but they do not scare me. They have been winning games on the offensive end of the ball, and generally in this tournament, that is not going to get you very far with the defensive teams this conference contains. Beating this Wisconsin MKE team is fairly simple – slow the pace, and minimize touches. Wisconsin MKE’s offense is predicated on shooting the three and shooting it enough to where it’s a gigantic outcome in just about every game. If they don’t get the # of possessions they need, they struggle. They were held below the 60 point mark eight times on the year and went 1-7 in those games. Simply put, the two teams chosen that I’ve invested in have a better defense, just as good if not better all-around offense, and play a slower tempo. The cons – playing on the MKE homecourt (although Loyola won here already this year) and having to win playing a four game stretch (although it’s stretched out over a week). Plenty of opportunities to get out of this one if either of them gets past MKE.

I’m playing Loyola CHI, obviously. They have double revenge against a team that put up 80 on them and shot better than 50% in both meetings this year and I would expect in this setting that Detroit gets nowhere near that # again or this is a loser. Detroit just doesn’t shoot enough three’s for it to be a major difference and those two games were the better part of what I would call a fluke. They shot a combined 15/29 from long distance which was the equalizer and something that probably doesn’t occur tonight. Coming into the year, Loyola CHI was a team that came in with many expectations. They returned the better part of the entire roster and they had a good start to the year. Then, the downturn started. Butler came in, and they lost it at the end. Then, they welcomed Valpo in, and again played them tough before falling at the end. Then, they welcomed Kansas State for another big game (Pullen’s Mom works at Loyola I believe). They faltered, they relied on the three-ball extremely way too much throughout the conference season and after the really good start, then really bad emotional three games, they couldn’t bounce back…until recently. They lost the bracket-buster at St. Peter’s (MAAC went something like 8-1 or 9-1 in those bracketbuster games), that’s about their only rough loss as of late. Over the course of the past few weeks, they’ve defeated a rival who had revenge on the road, beat Valpo by 20 on the road, and took Butler down to the wire again, this time on the road. They’re defense has been unreal the last few games, and I think they’ve found what has helped them to their fast starts the past few years. From a different perspective, Loyola CHI has the veteran leadership to get another victory on the road here tonight having returned just about everyone from last year. On the flip side, Detroit’s one of the most in-experienced group in the country. With the current status of Loyola CHI’s defense in full force, and Detroit’s inability to have an equalizer, much less have the ability to attempt shots from the outside, this game should go to the more experienced squad. I thought about going a unit on the +200 for tonight’s game, but that unit got invested into the future for obvious reasons. I have no interest in the other Horizon games.

If you have any other questions, feel free to post them in here on the other games. My concentration is on the tournaments, but I’m open for discussion.

GL