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Vegas vs KenPom System Day VI

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Posted: #1
CAUTION:
I HAVE HAD TERRIBLE LUCK ON SATURDAYS ALL YEAR LONG, I HAVE ONLY HAD ONE WINNING SATURDAY.

THIS IS THE FIRST SATURDAY SINCE STARTING THE SYSTEM BUT THERE IS NO REASON WHY MY SATURDAY CURSE CAN'T CONTINUE, PLEASE USE PROPER MONEY MANAGEMENT!!!


YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED
 
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Posted: #2
System YTD:
7-1-1

I will no longer be tracking the line movement plays.

Syracuse +1 is an official play

There will be more but I wanted to get that one posted since it starts in 20 minutes
 
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Posted: #3
System concept:
When there is a large difference (defined below) between the Vegas opening line and kenpom's fanmatch prediction (www.kenpom.com/fanmatch.php), we fade kenpom and side with Vegas.  This theory is based on the fact that while kenpom's website is very useful and accurate, he cannot account for injuries and situations that effect the line.  We assume that Vegas is making these odd lines for a reason and we side with them.
 
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Posted: #4
I too have had trouble with Sat  plays  seems  the home team gets ampped  up or something,    i do not play away teams on sat,   any other night  fine but not today,  BOL
 
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Posted: #5
System rules:

If the line is between 0 and 4, a large difference is 2 points.
4.5 to 12, a large difference is 3 points.
12.5 to 16, a large difference is 4 points.
16.5 and up, a large difference is 5 points.

There is one exception to this rule:
When Vegas and KenPom have different teams favored it is a no play.  KenPom seems to get more of these close ones right than Vegas.
 
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Posted: #6

put my bet in on the orangemen last night glad to c its one of your system plays.... also glad to c u dumped the line movement plays....

BOL beaverfan lets hope u turn ur saturday slump around today

 
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Posted: #7
does Kenpom adjust for injuries?, wright being out could be the whole reason the line differs. Also, is the Wich ST/SMS line off?, seems like they should be catching closer to 3.

good luck today


 
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Posted: #8

Beaver:

Thanks for the time to keep up with the posting.  It can be a grind after a while. 

Got a quick question.  Is there a way to back test this system?  Perhaps this is a selfish comment but previous results are a great tell on how well a money maker a system can be.  Fully understand that previous results do not automatically mean success but over time can prove a valuable edge. 

In addition, if there is some idea of previous results this can help input on the size of wagers put in.  Gambling is fun but it is not the best way make money.  But if there is a true edge found with this system  and proven with back testing, then it no longer becomes gambling but an informed wager. 

Innovation is a great way to create an edge and I truly hope you found something.  Thanks

 
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Posted: #9
Beaver, what u think about northeastern

 
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Posted: #10
all in on syracuse this definitly has serious line movement we will see here why are good buddys in vegas moved from kp to current line have faith brother  its been real good on opening lines with =3 or more spreads   best of luck my friend lets get this card rolling on the cuses
 
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Posted: #11
Final Card:
Syracuse +1
Auburn +4
Oregon St. +1
Toledo +1
UL Monroe +3
Baylor -3
Cal St Fullerton +1


 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by jakeandba:

Beaver:

Thanks for the time to keep up with the posting.  It can be a grind after a while. 

Got a quick question.  Is there a way to back test this system?  Perhaps this is a selfish comment but previous results are a great tell on how well a money maker a system can be.  Fully understand that previous results do not automatically mean success but over time can prove a valuable edge. 

In addition, if there is some idea of previous results this can help input on the size of wagers put in.  Gambling is fun but it is not the best way make money.  But if there is a true edge found with this system  and proven with back testing, then it no longer becomes gambling but an informed wager. 

Innovation is a great way to create an edge and I truly hope you found something.  Thanks



Yes there is a way, but it sucks ass!  On the kenpom website you can go back to any day throughout the year and see his prediction for the game.

On covers you can go to any day and see the line movement for each game. 

Before I started posting this system I back tested for 1 week (it took about 2 hours) and the results were 24-14.  I would love it if someone had the time to backtest further but it will not be a fun way to spend your afternoon
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Megatron27:

Beaver, what u think about northeastern



If the opening line would've been -7 instead of -6 it would've been a play.  I don't know alot about either team but based solely on their records and the line...I like northeastern.
 
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Posted: #14
leave it to beaver im all in your system will shine today 
 
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Posted: #15
Beaver u dont like Northeastern?
 
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Posted: #16
To make it easier, here are their tip times:  (EST)

Syracuse +1  12pm
Auburn +4      1:30pm
Oregon St. +1 6pm
Toledo +1        7pm
UL Monroe +3 7pm
Baylor -3           9pm
Cal St Fullerton +1  11pm
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by Megatron27:

Beaver u dont like Northeastern?


Post #13
 
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Posted: #18

lol Beaver...trust me fully understand research sucks.....have come up with a great idea (or so i thought) only for it to crash and burn after back testing for 2 yr prior or even more,,,,if i find the system has an edge over all through out the yrs then i start to serious start to look at it...it would take me days to weeks to go back 2 yrs or farther....

Since baseball season is coming and that is when i start to do a ton of research, i dont see on the web site to get prior yr game predictions from kenpon...this is correct right?

 
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Posted: #19
I think you are correct.  I don't see a way to go to prior years either.  I will be looking for your baseball research when the time comes.  I have never bet baseball but would like to get into it this summer
 
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Posted: #20
WOW DUDE........I'M AGAINST YOU ON THREE OF THESE........ONE OF US WILL BE A HAPPY MAN.........
 
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Posted: #21
Not a system play but I really like Kentucky -8.  That line is begging for Florida money
 
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Posted: #22
Plus its a good way to pass the time until the next system play.  2-0 so far
 
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Posted: #23

Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

Plus its a good way to pass the time until the next system play.  2-0 so far

,

 
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YEP, I'M A HAPPY MAN..........
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