KP difference system plays

Forum: College Basketball
Author: [College Basketball] Topic: KP difference system plays
Phi131 PM Phi131
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Posted: 2/22/2011 1:07:34 PM

Yesterday 1-3

Posted YTD 1-3

 

Not the way I wanted to have these posted plays started. This system has done well for me for awhile, I was hoping the 1st day wasn't going to be 1 and 3. Is what it is though. Here's what I have today.

 

Plays for 2/22/2011

 

Lasalle vs Xavier -14

KP: Xavier -18

Play: Lasalle +14

 

Lasalle vs Xavier over/under 154.5

KP: 158

Play: Under 154.5

 

Indiana St vs Northern Iowa over/under 126

KP: 123

Play: Over 126

 

Tennessee vs Vanderbilt -6

KP: Vandy -9

Play: Tennessee +6

 

Michigan St vs Minnesota over/under 132

KP: 136

Play: Under 132

 

Weber vs Idaho St over/under 139

KP: 135

Play: Over 139

 

TCU vs Utah over/under 138

KP: 143

Play: Under 138

 

That's all I have so far. There are a few plays that are 1 point to 1/2 point away from fitting into the system. Use what you want from this information. Best of Luck to all.

jraines PM jraines
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Posted: 2/22/2011 1:15:06 PM
have a couple of those im playing as well BOL
shark_apreza PM shark_apreza
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Posted: 2/22/2011 1:16:00 PM
tidefan07 PM tidefan07
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Posted: 2/22/2011 1:44:30 PM
owhat12 PM owhat12
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Posted: 2/22/2011 1:49:56 PM
Phi131 how have the totals been doing  like playing the totals thanks
Phi131 PM Phi131
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Posted: 2/22/2011 2:30:55 PM
They have been doing well. I get more totals than side plays typically. Usually 80/20 totals to sides. On the whole this system has been hitting at 62% of the time for about 3 weeks now.
beaverfan23 PM beaverfan23
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Posted: 2/22/2011 2:34:18 PM


I am interested to see how the totals do.
JEG53 PM JEG53
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Posted: 2/22/2011 2:37:32 PM
So your taking the kenpom #s vs the line and if there is a certain amount of difference then your going with kenpom #s as being the true line and Vegas is off on their lines?
PINNACLE PM PINNACLE
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Posted: 2/22/2011 2:44:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JEG53:

So your taking the kenpom #s vs the line and if there is a certain amount of difference then your going with kenpom #s as being the true line and Vegas is off on their lines?
Actually it looks to be the opposite. Based on the plays he has in post no. 1, it would appear that he's putting more credence in the "Vegas" line.
Phi131 PM Phi131
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Posted: 2/22/2011 3:21:14 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by JEG53:

So your taking the kenpom #s vs the line and if there is a certain amount of difference then your going with kenpom #s as being the true line and Vegas is off on their lines?

Pinnacle is right. The opposite of what you stated. In yesterday's thread I had explained how KP doesn't take into consideration the intangibles that Vegas does. These intangibles will move the line slightly one way or the other, but not veering too far from the projected line. My plays are based on this hypothesis...and so far so good. I hope, for my bankroll's sake, this trend continues.

Best of Luck

Phi131 PM Phi131
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Posted: 2/22/2011 3:22:59 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by beaverfan23:



I am interested to see how the totals do.

For sure! Like I said, they have treated me very well. I would say pretty consistent on the 60 to 65% rate.

I visited your thread. I dig your spin.

Best of Luck!

wizzy69 PM wizzy69
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Posted: 2/22/2011 3:53:08 PM
lets try this again phi, im still wit ya bro!!!  gl tonite
Phi131 PM Phi131
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Posted: 2/22/2011 3:59:25 PM
U got it Wizzy!
jakeandba PM jakeandba
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Posted: 2/22/2011 6:42:01 PM

phi thanks for sharing this system.  Have to ask, but is it possible to back test this idea?  If this systen is indeed has merit, it would be wise to be able to back test for any idea of its previous success or failure.  It sucks to be out of the game based on a great idea which fails to produce results over the long term.

 

anyway not meaning to bash but i have had a ton of experience of following a system where i went broke b.c i did not take the time to back test.  Since then i have learned some discipline, but it was something i would not want to repeat.

shark_apreza PM shark_apreza
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Posted: 2/22/2011 6:44:41 PM
Phi131 PM Phi131
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Posted: 2/22/2011 10:36:35 PM
Jakeandba- This post puts me over 100 picks for this system. Which goes back about 3 to 4 weeks. It is 60 and 40 including today's first 3 games that have finished. So it has hit at 60%. I went for 90 picks before I posted. I don't think I'm going to go back any further, however if anyone else has the time and desire that would be awesome. I'm not claiming this will be perfect. Just hoping to continue at this rate, nothing more. I'll probably run this for another week or two. Best of luck to you and appreciate your post.
pcp333 PM pcp333
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Posted: 2/22/2011 10:54:51 PM
Phil, maybe we can tweak it. It seems like the teams getting the big spreads aka Lasalle do not cover. Maybe bet the teams where the spreads are 10 and below. I don"t know, just throwing it out there. 
Skipbone PM Skipbone
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Posted: 2/22/2011 10:59:24 PM
systems
Phi131 PM Phi131
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Posted: 2/23/2011 1:39:01 AM
PCP333 - That may be a better way. I can say in the past there have been a few 14 to 17 point dogs that have covered. I think that "beaverfan" may have a better strategy, which has a higher number for those larger spread games. I know I don't like being on the losing side of a 100 to 62 ball game that's for sure, so if tweaking is what the system needs I'm all about it. Thanks for the post. Good Luck.
poolman11 PM poolman11
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Posted: 2/23/2011 1:51:49 AM
way to rock n roll phi131 awesome thread all report back for conclusion  theres merit here !!!!!!!!!  ive been workin with the beaver hes tweeking a kempom trend trying to all put our minds together has gotta be an EDGE   thx for sharing and best of luck!!!!!!!!!
Phi131 PM Phi131
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Posted: 2/23/2011 1:55:22 AM
Today went 4-3. I'm not sure if anyone else was able to get the Weber/Idaho St total line at 139. I got it off SBR, however my book opened at 135 which wouldn't have ever qualified for the system. Oh well, posted is posted. Overall 5-6.
FLIGHT823 PM FLIGHT823
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Posted: 2/23/2011 3:04:46 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Phi131:

Today went 4-3. I'm not sure if anyone else was able to get the Weber/Idaho St total line at 139. I got it off SBR, however my book opened at 135 which wouldn't have ever qualified for the system. Oh well, posted is posted. Overall 5-6.

4-3 today ....not bad but I agree we probably need to tweak this system a little....

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