laugh if you want... THE key to winning consistently

I see people looking for value in a games line, as in 'vegas missed one', or 'I had this capped at a different number so I see value'... This will provide a winner here and there, but NOT over time.

the #1 rule for winning is...

be humble and know that vegas IS smarter than you!

Therefore when you think a line is better than it shoud be, trust what the linesmakers are telling you and not what you think the number should be!

The hardest part of this, of course, is that this is easier said than done... especially consistently. When you see a game that seems like a gift, you must listen to the linesmakers because the numbers are there for a reason.

Using yesterday as an example, Tennesse and Arizona fall into this category. Arizona should have clearly been -4-5ish while tennessee probably 6. The public rode both these 'gifts' and got trounced. Could both games have covered? Yes, of course. But over the long haul, playing these 'gifts' will lose you money! I, for one, was on both of the 'gifts' and it caused me to really check my discipline, which wavered on both games.

Taking this to heart, I'm listening to the linesmakers and riding with Vegas today... here's what I see...

Miami, Fla (line should've opened at -3.5ish but opened at a pick) --- my play (Clemson big play)

Ohio St (line should've opened at -2ish but opened at +1) --- my play (Purdue big play)

UCLA (line should've opened at -2.5ish but opened at pick) --- my play (California big play)

Not conicidentally, all three of the 'gifts' are top consensus plays. Could all three cover? Yes, of course, but over the long haul, if you (and I) can keep this perspective and not get sucked in, we will profit handsomely for sure...

Hoping I didnt jinx myself, but I see absolutely zero posts with these three plays. One here and there, but not all three, or even two of them for that matter. Like many other winning angles, they just don't seem like tasty plays at tipoff. I'm more concerned about how tasty they are at game's end.

Good luck fellas!

btw, im 108-75-6 / 13-9 big plays posted... at $200-300 for most plays, do the math and I'm doing just fine.

lookin back though, many of my losers fall into the 'taking the gift' category. i WILL be disciplined moving forward and my numbers will improve as a result.

I see what you mean and understand your logic.

But it always doesnt work that way....

Yesterday was two prime examples the better team won.

Michigan and Northwestern can you explain those two teams getting points. They are better than the teams they played by far.

Unfrickin believable 

I see quite a few people playing the sides you are on

best of luck

good point kuranes,

if osu was favored by 2 or 3 from the start, i guarantee all the money would be on osu.  by putting at osu plus 1 to start people that weren't sure are taking purdue.  its all about evening the sides.

Did you consider that possibly nobody had "chimed in" yet because you only waited 4 minutes before you resorted to self-promotion? 

mike... i had michigan laying a point so they were favored... northwestern is absolutely NOT better than indiana who has an good home record and i believe the lines wer right on for both those games, so they arent the type of games im applying my theory to.

sicilian... the consensus is the group of covers posters who make their plays and it is tallied here under the 'consensus' portion of the site... both of theose games had over 65% of the posters on the 'gifts'

kuranes... couldnt disagree more. vegas isnt always trying to split it... a prime example would be any game where a large percentage is on a particular team, yet the line goes the other way -- reverse line movement. vegas WILL sway you when they feel they have the advantage, otherwise line movements would ALWAYS go in the direction to balance out the money. This is not always the case.

Good luck to all of you. Would any of you care to share your picks on any or all of the three aforementioned games? 

not self promoting and there are better cappers on this site than me for sure. and, like i said, ive seen clemson, ive seen purdue, and (maybe?) a cal pick, but nobody on two of the three.

not bashing anyone and i may go 0-3... i'd gladly take 2 outta 3 and time will tell...

i respect everyone's opinion, and ive been doing okay. i just think if i try and take this into consideration, i can be a better capper for it.

good luck fellas. i knew id open a can of worms with this. it was more about me checking my own discipline after yesterday...

thx train... we know its no walk in the park regardless of what "theory" we lean on. really i was a bit frustrated with a few of my public plays yesterday and im trying to re-focus.

i was simply sharing a perspective that i think is hugely relevant to winning, but very difficult to maintain in terms of discipline.

lotta respect for you brutha... read ur posts regularly.

lets get it today... cha fkn ching!

vegasmaxx... another poster i reead regularly and respect... debate the tennessee number as you will. it was tasy enough to put over 65% of the consensus on it, so it was certainly a better 'value' that it shoulda been as most perceived... thats kinda the point here.

good luck brutha! 

midnite... correct nobody knows the outcome, but vegas knows more than the betting public and thats why they profit far more than the 10% juice if evreything was a coin flip.

good luck with ur plays brutha!