Back to basics Saturday

Yesterday: 1-3, -3.25u

YTD: 111-97-9 Overall full game, 23-15-2 middle/2h, 2-2 ml, 6-11-1 teasers/ml parlay, +12.65u
Mountain West record: 24-19-5, 7-3 2h, 1-0ml, 3-1 teasers +12.95u

Still bleeding money, been playing too many games for the "action" this past week and haven't had only one winning day since last Tuesday.  Had a bunch of leans for tomorrow, narrowed down to three picks that I like.

Detroit +1 1u
Detroit +6/Matty Ice pk 1u

Scary how much I love this matchup.  Det scores by grit: offensive boards and getting to the line.  Central Michigan doesn't rebound well, and is ranked 337th in allowing opponents to get to the line.  if Detroit was at home and laying 4 or 5, I would have made this a bigger play.  But being on the road makes this just 1u and 1u teased with the falc. Some may look at the loss on the road at W Mich and pause - but W Mich is actually very very good at preventing FT's. 

Wichita State -4 1u

Semi-Away.  Wichita looks to get everyone back against LSU.  SOS advantage, makes the 3pt shooting of Wich st look better.  Should have a slight rebounding ADV.  Huge experience advantage(26 vs 327th).  I know it is not this easy but losing to Coastal Carolina and going to OT with McNeese state speaks volumes to me.  It is in Louisiana, but this is the kind of win Wich needs for tourney purposes.  lay the 2 possessions.

Long Beach State +9 1u

Semi Home at Anaheim.  I like LBst SOS here. They have played just about the the hardest schedule at .840, St Mary's middle of the pack at .501.  The composite O is 106 OE, the composite D is 91.7   hard to get a really good read on what their numbers mean in this case.  They are more experienced, and don;t let anyone get to the line.  Looks like a close grinding game to me so I'll take the 9 pts.

GL tomorrow.

I am leaning on UCSB tomorrow.  I did a write up of some sorts too.

Here are the writeups I did for the two Mountain West games:  probably both passes for me. 

Mountain West games for Saturday, December 18

BYU vs UCLA, in Anaheim

KP -8.  The question is, when does BYU come back to earth.  KP has them as the 8th best team right now.  I have watched them play several games and my eyes tell me different.  Bad time to buy BYU as I sense that they are way overvalued aftre that destruction of Arizona.  But this game is NOT at UCLA, though it is in Anaheim at the John Wooden Classic.  UCLA has played a much tougher SOS, but as far as I can tell, that is about the only thing that recommends them here. Should be a fun game to watch, but I can't see a play yet.

Line opened at LVS at -4, opened for us at -6.5.  Would have had to take BYU at 4.  I have a nagging feeling UCLA keeps this one close as BYU is due to have an off game.

UC Santa Barbara at San Diego State.

KP -13.  SDS struggles against Cal Poly, and UCSB beats UNLV.  Think a few might line up to play UCSB? especially with tapley and Leonard still questionable.  If their staus is in doubt, I wonder what the line wuld come out at.  Impossible to cap it without the line and the injury report.  feels like a pass.

Looked in hoopsprof thread and begin digging into this game.  One thing we have to keep in mind is how incredibly outplayed UCSB was by UNLV in their BIG win.  Take a look insaide that game and we find this
Stat UNLV/UCSB
FGA :62/44
FTA: 34/17
ORB: 23/5
TO: 17/25
Total Possessions: 79/52

Seriously folks, take a look at that!  Based off of the average efficiencies of both teams, this should have been a 30 pt win for UNLV!!!  Sometimes the ball just doesn't fall.  Now I didn't watch the game, and maybe the UCSB defense was all in UNLV grill all game and no one got an open look to force the bad shooting - but I have sneaking suspicion that was not the case.  UNLV was motivated, not flat, they just had a bad day shooting. 

If UNLV dominated the offensive glass like that, imagine what a healthy SDS team might do.

It is hard to look beyond the score but you gotta in this game in particular.  The SDS.Cal Poly game was an anomaly (imagine if SDS shoots their average of 33% from 3pt land - they win by 22 pretty close to the number), as was the UNLV/UCSB game.

What would this line have been had UNLV won by 30 as they should have, and SDS had won by 22? 

15-19 probably.

Great card!  I am laying off Detroit but I love the other two picks and may add LBS later.

on em all

Hey Bando. If SD Sate is healthy, I have them as 18 point favorites over UCSB. There is definitely value there if SD State is healthy.

Good Luck Bando

GL ...and GO SOX!

BOL

Shakey, hoops, convuls, amd

Wynn - love Adrian Gonzalez, scratching my head about CC, but its not my money - oh wait, it kinds is...

Mcgarrett - $uck Tennessee

GH - after looking more and more you may be right.  My initial lean as I expressed in Hoops thread was UCSB but they didn't deserve to win that last game.  Need leonard and Tapley to lay that big a number though and I cant find out shit.

BOL Bandos!!!

D, JD, Swizz

Based on injuries - have to lean pacific vs NMst, Rahman out, Gilly and castillo (sg) doubtful.

major crash on Richmond line???

And BYU down to -5.

Thinking of adding Denver/No Co Over 125.5.  Always scary to play any Denver game over as they possessions are so low.  BUT, neither team defends the 3, and both shoot often and well from three.  Add to that No Colorado propensity to get to the line and Denver being dead last in allowing trips to the stripe, and I think we might have an over.

And, if SDS Leonard and Tapoley are out - just play the under.  SDS will not score as they can, and will need to play real tough D to win.

I like UCSB.  Nunnally and Johnson are a 2 man show, and the thing I like is their great FT%.  They are one of the best in the country, they will get a lot of free points.  Those 2 pose matchup problems for SDSU.  No one to guard either.

On the other side, they will get outrebounded to death, but I think they will make 3's, and a lot of FT's.

Haven't heard about Tapely, but Leonard is probable now.

More SDS news:

Part of it is that starters Kawhi Leonard and Chase Tapley returned to practice for the first time only Friday after a weeklong bout with a nasty flu, and neither looked exactly sprite.

from San Diego trib

I don't think the UNLV is as much an oddity as many think either.  I was their live, and they forced them to take a lot of 3's.  Any team that loses, you can say if they make shots they would've won.

UCSB played a 2-3 for a majority of the itme., which forced more 3's than UNLV wanted to take, and opened them up to give up a lot of offensive rebounds.

UNLV can certainly get three happy - were they contested or rather open vs zone looks?

And this is certainly true:  "Any team that loses, you can say if they make shots they would've won."  My point was with that HUGE a possession disparity they should have easily won with just average shooting.  In other words, I still think UNLV was the right side, as stupid crazy as that sounds.


Played this over as I saw it creeping up everywhere

Denver OVER 126  1u

Decent looks against the zone when they went that way.  Just couldn't hit them.

I expect them to get outrebounded bad, but I expect them to hit 85% Free throws and 35% threes!

Good luck!

GL bandos 

GL to you sharp.  On paper BYU should roll, and the matchup zone is never kind to SDS

Purdue

Added one more thanks to GH and Kine (read their threads for info)

Mississippi State +6 1u

Line movement in Det and LBst games have me

Updated, and hopefully, final card for today.  Lost value on Det and Lbst.  Damn.

Detroit +1 1u
Detroit +6/Matty Ice pk 1u
Wichita State -4 1u
Long Beach State +9 1u
Mississippi State +6 1u
Denver OVER 126  1u

South Florida/James Madison...this line plummeted from -7 to -4.5 after Stan Heath kicked SFU's leading scorer (Gilchrist) off the team. The fact is, SFU did better without him--he was a cancer to the team.
When SFU kicked Auburn's ass w/o Gilchrist, Gilchrist begged his way back, but will not play against JMU.

Good! Heath has now established who's boss and the team will rally round him. JMU has played a long series of stiffs and has yet to play tough, banging athletes.

I don't lay points. I just want my team to win. So, I run combination ML teasers from all sports that I work.

Tonight, 7PM EST (or 5PM MST for you, Bandos)...

South Florida ML over JMU
Atlanta Thrashers ML over NJ Devils (NHL).