I usually play all of my college basketball games at the same size unit, which is 1/4 of my NFL plays. Tonight, I will be playing 1 NFL unit on Nevada, which means 4x my usual college bet - why?
1. Nevada has a big size advantage over Arizona State and this gets more pronounced with the bench and player substitutions.
2. Nevada has, as expected, a rebounding advantage over ASU with Nevada at a +3.5 rebounding margin versus ASU at +1.5
3. Nevada advantage at the FT line. Nevada shoots 69% (127-187) from the FT line compared to Arizona State at 59% (77-131) and takes more attempts: You can see that Nevada has nearly as many free throws made as ASU has had attempts.
4. Nevada at home
5. Don't let the records fool you. Arizona State brings a 4-4 record into this game but two of those wins have been by a combined 4 points (of those, one against UAB). Nevada shows only a 2-7 record but three of those losses by have been by a combined 6 points.
NEVADA +4.5
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Last pick (12/11) Portland -5.5 at Denver (win)
ARIZONA STATE @ NEVADA +4.5
I usually play all of my college basketball games at the same size unit, which is 1/4 of my NFL plays. Tonight, I will be playing 1 NFL unit on Nevada, which means 4x my usual college bet - why?
1. Nevada has a big size advantage over Arizona State and this gets more pronounced with the bench and player substitutions.
2. Nevada has, as expected, a rebounding advantage over ASU with Nevada at a +3.5 rebounding margin versus ASU at +1.5
3. Nevada advantage at the FT line. Nevada shoots 69% (127-187) from the FT line compared to Arizona State at 59% (77-131) and takes more attempts: You can see that Nevada has nearly as many free throws made as ASU has had attempts.
4. Nevada at home
5. Don't let the records fool you. Arizona State brings a 4-4 record into this game but two of those wins have been by a combined 4 points (of those, one against UAB). Nevada shows only a 2-7 record but three of those losses by have been by a combined 6 points.
I have watched this Nevada team on several occasions, and they are not worth backing here. They cannot remember plays on offense. Their attendance is terrible and it is snowing in Reno today so will stay home.
This will be ugly as Nevada's young kids will not know how to beat a zone. I predict little ball or player movement, and many 3's shot at the end of the shot clock.
Good luck but I think I will be on the other side.
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I have watched this Nevada team on several occasions, and they are not worth backing here. They cannot remember plays on offense. Their attendance is terrible and it is snowing in Reno today so will stay home.
This will be ugly as Nevada's young kids will not know how to beat a zone. I predict little ball or player movement, and many 3's shot at the end of the shot clock.
Good luck but I think I will be on the other side.
I am really liking this Nevada team -- Czyz (Duke) and Story (Indiana) and also Hunt and Burton . . . out Czyz and his energy in the starting lineup and maybe we can steal a few soft lines
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I am really liking this Nevada team -- Czyz (Duke) and Story (Indiana) and also Hunt and Burton . . . out Czyz and his energy in the starting lineup and maybe we can steal a few soft lines
Nice call my man , last time I looked at Nevada was the UNLV game when I took them +17, before that the results of the Boston and SDakota st games just look like shit. But if they're improving this may be a solid team when getting pt's the rest of the way. All the IU transfers a few years ago are studs (Look at last year's Tourney). The list goes on and on, but hey Hoosier nation will be making a comeback in a season or two!
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Nice call my man , last time I looked at Nevada was the UNLV game when I took them +17, before that the results of the Boston and SDakota st games just look like shit. But if they're improving this may be a solid team when getting pt's the rest of the way. All the IU transfers a few years ago are studs (Look at last year's Tourney). The list goes on and on, but hey Hoosier nation will be making a comeback in a season or two!
Congrats on the win, but that game was fishy as shit.
ASU gives up a 4 point play with 10 or so seconds left in the game? Then they are up 4 with 2 seconds left and foul again??
That is not even being sneaky about trying to not cover the game!
I hope you are right as I am a Nevada alum, but this team is light years away from being any good. ASU just sucks that bad too!
I don't know if I would go as far as call it rigged (as suggested in another thread), but I agree that it was very odd, and certainly the pivotal play in the cover. Why Evans gets fouled with five seconds to go was stupid and then not to box him out from putting in his own miss? Incredible!
I do disagree -- I think that Nevada has some good potential. Czyz and Story have a completely different energy level from the rest of the Wolfpack team. The coach needs to get these guys to push the rest of the talent (Hunt and Burton) to match their energy.
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Quote Originally Posted by hoopsprof:
Congrats on the win, but that game was fishy as shit.
ASU gives up a 4 point play with 10 or so seconds left in the game? Then they are up 4 with 2 seconds left and foul again??
That is not even being sneaky about trying to not cover the game!
I hope you are right as I am a Nevada alum, but this team is light years away from being any good. ASU just sucks that bad too!
I don't know if I would go as far as call it rigged (as suggested in another thread), but I agree that it was very odd, and certainly the pivotal play in the cover. Why Evans gets fouled with five seconds to go was stupid and then not to box him out from putting in his own miss? Incredible!
I do disagree -- I think that Nevada has some good potential. Czyz and Story have a completely different energy level from the rest of the Wolfpack team. The coach needs to get these guys to push the rest of the talent (Hunt and Burton) to match their energy.
Nice call my man , last time I looked at Nevada was the UNLV game when I took them +17, before that the results of the Boston and SDakota st games just look like shit. But if they're improving this may be a solid team when getting pt's the rest of the way. All the IU transfers a few years ago are studs (Look at last year's Tourney). The list goes on and on, but hey Hoosier nation will be making a comeback in a season or two!
mwhit82 -- your avatars are constantly improving!
What do you think about the Colts at home this week vs. Jacksonville?
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Quote Originally Posted by mwhit82:
Nice call my man , last time I looked at Nevada was the UNLV game when I took them +17, before that the results of the Boston and SDakota st games just look like shit. But if they're improving this may be a solid team when getting pt's the rest of the way. All the IU transfers a few years ago are studs (Look at last year's Tourney). The list goes on and on, but hey Hoosier nation will be making a comeback in a season or two!
mwhit82 -- your avatars are constantly improving!
What do you think about the Colts at home this week vs. Jacksonville?
I don't know if I would go as far as call it rigged (as suggested in another thread), but I agree that it was very odd, and certainly the pivotal play in the cover. Why Evans gets fouled with five seconds to go was stupid and then not to box him out from putting in his own miss? Incredible!
I do disagree -- I think that Nevada has some good potential. Czyz and Story have a completely different energy level from the rest of the Wolfpack team. The coach needs to get these guys to push the rest of the talent (Hunt and Burton) to match their energy.
Nevada has some talent, but they are a few years away. I am not sold on their coaching staff though, I think something is wrong there. Not sure these guys will develop.
So far I am not a Story fan, do not like his game at all. His decision making sucks, and he thinks he is better than he actually is.
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Quote Originally Posted by msohn:
I don't know if I would go as far as call it rigged (as suggested in another thread), but I agree that it was very odd, and certainly the pivotal play in the cover. Why Evans gets fouled with five seconds to go was stupid and then not to box him out from putting in his own miss? Incredible!
I do disagree -- I think that Nevada has some good potential. Czyz and Story have a completely different energy level from the rest of the Wolfpack team. The coach needs to get these guys to push the rest of the talent (Hunt and Burton) to match their energy.
Nevada has some talent, but they are a few years away. I am not sold on their coaching staff though, I think something is wrong there. Not sure these guys will develop.
So far I am not a Story fan, do not like his game at all. His decision making sucks, and he thinks he is better than he actually is.
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