Sunday Total **West Virginia vs Duquesne** (1-0 ytd)

For those of you who have read my posts in the past, know that I don't post everyday, but when I do, they are very detailed write ups based on historical trends and statistics (14-7 on posted plays last year).

I typically wait to post until conference play, but I think there is a great opportunity on the board tonight:

West Virginia  / Duquesne Under 148.5

Some key points:

First, West Virginia enters the game 49th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, only allowing 0.92 pts per possession. In the last four games in this annual, non-conference match-up, Duquesne has only been able to muster 39, 63, 68, and 54 points vs the Mountaineer defense. And in their only other game this year vs a top 75 ranked defense, Duquesne only scored 66 vs Pittsburgh.

Now one must acknowedge that Duquesne does play fast -- currently ranked 28th nationally at 71.7 possessions per game. However, this is nothing new in this match-up.  Since 2007, Duquesne has averaged 74.8, 75.3, 69.7, 71.3 possessions per game. Yet the totals set in those games were 133, 158, 146.5, 137.5 respectively.  So despite Duquesne actually playing at a pace that averages 1 possession less per game this year than the last four, the total is actually 4.75 points higher than the average total posted for those four games -- and herein lies the value.

Also, in the last 3 match-ups vs WVU that Duquesne was the home team, the finals were 131, 139, and 141.

One last comparison can also be made with the West Virginia / VMI game from earlier in the year. VMI is the fastest paced team in the country averaging 79.6 possessions per game and the final landed on 148.

Lastly, I also expect an inspired effort, especially defensively from WVU after Huggins benched the 5 starters coming out of halftime of their last game vs Robert Morris because of less than inspired play. Quotes from Huggins after that game included: "I didn't know what to tell them. How many times can I tell them where they're supposed to be on defense? How many times can I tell then to go rebound the ball?"

As always, good luck to everyone tonight

Always appreciated, KP

Good luck, JD

was at the game last year and it was brutal

68-39

Also on this play !!  Have it at U 149.

Goodluck tonight !!

That must have been ugly to watch, KGC. I'll take a similar outcome tonight

GL, jimmyg

Both teams seemed to have settled down after a very fast paced game for the first 12 minutes or so.

34-23 H

But as always with totals, very long way to go

No opinion either way. Though I do like that Vegas is projecting an adjusted total of 131. Good luck with what you choose

Duquesne played their part, only getting 61 points

West Virginia  / Duquesne Under 148.5

Thanks for all the support