Posted:
#1
Glad to finally win a close game (vs the spread) and will take the Auburn cover. I have FAU +2 but don't have time for a huge write-up here as I want to write-up another play here. Here is briefly why I liked FAU before the next write-up. FAU is coming off a nice road win and has revenge in this game. This is the beginning of a long road trip for FAU and expect this game to have their full attention. Jarvis is calling this trip an NBA-like road trip and is handling it as such. He has also said that they will allow Jenkins to get his while trying to shutdown his teammates. I am very happy with that gameplan. Also, FAU handles the ball very well and should have an advantage at the free throw line (attempts). I don't love this game but do feel that we have an advantage getting points in this spot.
On to the point of this write-up which is to say that I am on Portland -3. Again briefly here is why:
In my opinion this line should be -6ish (which is where it started) and its Denver's home reputation from last year making this line fall. Portland has already played a much better, equally slow tempo team in Montana and they beat them by 4 (and Montana is much better than Denver in many ways). Denver gives up a high field goal percentage against and a high 3-point field percentage against. Portland is #4 in the country in 3-point shooting. Denver also puts its opponents on the line 28+ times a game. For as slow of a tempo as they play, that number is astronomical (even though Portland doesn't get to the line a ton). Also, Denver is one of the worst rebounding teams in the country (especially when it comes to offensive rebounding - they are 344 out of 345 in the country). Rebounding was one of the main reasons why Montana was able to keep the game with Portland close. That should not be the case tonight. Denver also struggles with playing from behind (mainly because of their tempo and lack of rebounding) so if Portland jumps ahead early its going to be a huge struggle for Denver to get back in it.
Are their concerns backing Portland? Minor ones to be sure, 3rd game in a road on the road and rivalry game with Port St on deck (but 7 days away). Also, Portland just played a team is the opposite tempo (although they played montana the exact same tempo two games back so that helps).
Basically if you play Denver, you are saying they are "due" to play better than they have. There is really no statistical reason to take them in this spot (especially if you didn't grab 5.5 or 6). Could Denver win or stay within the spread, sure anything can happen, but it would take some significant changes in the way both teams play and the strengths of Portland play very well into the weaknesses of this current Denver team. Good luck with whatever you decide.
1-unit Portland -3 on Matchbook
On to the point of this write-up which is to say that I am on Portland -3. Again briefly here is why:
In my opinion this line should be -6ish (which is where it started) and its Denver's home reputation from last year making this line fall. Portland has already played a much better, equally slow tempo team in Montana and they beat them by 4 (and Montana is much better than Denver in many ways). Denver gives up a high field goal percentage against and a high 3-point field percentage against. Portland is #4 in the country in 3-point shooting. Denver also puts its opponents on the line 28+ times a game. For as slow of a tempo as they play, that number is astronomical (even though Portland doesn't get to the line a ton). Also, Denver is one of the worst rebounding teams in the country (especially when it comes to offensive rebounding - they are 344 out of 345 in the country). Rebounding was one of the main reasons why Montana was able to keep the game with Portland close. That should not be the case tonight. Denver also struggles with playing from behind (mainly because of their tempo and lack of rebounding) so if Portland jumps ahead early its going to be a huge struggle for Denver to get back in it.
Are their concerns backing Portland? Minor ones to be sure, 3rd game in a road on the road and rivalry game with Port St on deck (but 7 days away). Also, Portland just played a team is the opposite tempo (although they played montana the exact same tempo two games back so that helps).
Basically if you play Denver, you are saying they are "due" to play better than they have. There is really no statistical reason to take them in this spot (especially if you didn't grab 5.5 or 6). Could Denver win or stay within the spread, sure anything can happen, but it would take some significant changes in the way both teams play and the strengths of Portland play very well into the weaknesses of this current Denver team. Good luck with whatever you decide.
1-unit Portland -3 on Matchbook
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