Typical degen action play result today 0-1. Back to some level of discipline. Here are my writeups of this weekends Mountain West Games. Lines will be out Friday at 5pm or so and might want to hit some right then, so I wanted to get some feedback on these games.
Mountain West writeups for Friday AND Saturday 12-11
Friday: Wyoming at UC Irvine
KP -2, 70 possessions, 142 pts. Two teams I have bet on quite a bit. UC Irvine killed me on Sunday as I anticipated their best player Eric Wise to return, and he didn't. He is questionable for this tilt. Wyoming is trying to be one of my favorite teams, earning 44th in FT rate at 47%, whereas Irvine allows a 40% FT rate, rank 189. Slight edge UCIrvine on thew boards, but this is a great weakness for this WY team, and one that UCirvine might not exploit. WY has a substantial SOS advantage. It remains to be seen whether this team will be able to perform on the road as they have laid two eggs on the road, @N Colorado and @ S. Dakota. If Wise plays, how rusty will he be, how effective? As I write it up, sounds like a ton of question marks, no?
Utah at Michigan.
KP -7, 66 poss, 125 toal. Utah is tall, middle of the road SOS, and experience. Michigan is similar SOS and experience, rather short, but outrebounds Utah on paper. As I have written many times, Utah is 8th in the nation in getting to the line at 53.5% FT rate. However, Michigan is 10th in the nation allowing only a 24% FT rate. Michigan is challenged offensively, attempting a ton of 3pt shots and only hitting 31% thus far, Utah allowing about that (rank 84th). Revenge spot for a brutal 16 pt loss at Utah last year. Michigan D might be to much for Utah here. Would look real hard at Michigan laying anything under 3 possessions as Utah has only played one gridlock defensive team like Michigan, and lost to Utah State by 17. Michigan's D is comparable to Ut State, and Utah scored a wicked inefficient 62 pts on 73 possessions.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Typical degen action play result today 0-1. Back to some level of discipline. Here are my writeups of this weekends Mountain West Games. Lines will be out Friday at 5pm or so and might want to hit some right then, so I wanted to get some feedback on these games.
Mountain West writeups for Friday AND Saturday 12-11
Friday: Wyoming at UC Irvine
KP -2, 70 possessions, 142 pts. Two teams I have bet on quite a bit. UC Irvine killed me on Sunday as I anticipated their best player Eric Wise to return, and he didn't. He is questionable for this tilt. Wyoming is trying to be one of my favorite teams, earning 44th in FT rate at 47%, whereas Irvine allows a 40% FT rate, rank 189. Slight edge UCIrvine on thew boards, but this is a great weakness for this WY team, and one that UCirvine might not exploit. WY has a substantial SOS advantage. It remains to be seen whether this team will be able to perform on the road as they have laid two eggs on the road, @N Colorado and @ S. Dakota. If Wise plays, how rusty will he be, how effective? As I write it up, sounds like a ton of question marks, no?
Utah at Michigan.
KP -7, 66 poss, 125 toal. Utah is tall, middle of the road SOS, and experience. Michigan is similar SOS and experience, rather short, but outrebounds Utah on paper. As I have written many times, Utah is 8th in the nation in getting to the line at 53.5% FT rate. However, Michigan is 10th in the nation allowing only a 24% FT rate. Michigan is challenged offensively, attempting a ton of 3pt shots and only hitting 31% thus far, Utah allowing about that (rank 84th). Revenge spot for a brutal 16 pt loss at Utah last year. Michigan D might be to much for Utah here. Would look real hard at Michigan laying anything under 3 possessions as Utah has only played one gridlock defensive team like Michigan, and lost to Utah State by 17. Michigan's D is comparable to Ut State, and Utah scored a wicked inefficient 62 pts on 73 possessions.
KP -2. BYU and AZ have sub-average SOS so far. AZ lost to KS by 8,
beat OK by 23, BYU beat Utah St. by 6 and St. marys by 1. BYU cleans up
its own glass and doesn't turn the ball over, and they shoot ok. Their
defensive numbers may be a bit inflated as the average O they have
played ranks 229 at 98.6 % efficiency. AZ on the other hand is dominant
on the boards, and shoots a ton of threes, at close to 40% thus far.
However, their offensive numbers are a bit inflated by the weak defenses
they have played. BYU defend the perimeter well with Jimmer and Emery,
and AZ likes the three. One advantage AZ has is in getting to the line
and FT %, as well as depth. BYU does not play a lot of guys besides
6th man Davies, AZ runs 11 deep. BYU always looks great on Kenpom, but
they often have a hard time competing with squads that have superior
athletes - see their first round losses to TX A+M and second round loss
to kst last year. No way I would touch AZ if this game was truly at
home, but in the arena, I would have to lean AZ here.
SD @ SDS
KP -29. Needn't have even looked at this one. I imagine this will open
at 26 or so. There is nothing in this matchup that would suggest SD
can stay that close. The 2nd 5 from SDS could probably beat SD by close
to DD. The only question in a game like this is motivation. I do not
think SDS will have it. They just won for the first time in 70 years at
Cal and won BIG. They truly can go on cruise control for a while til
conference play starts - they might break a sweat against UC Santa
barbara, but that is predicted to be a 14 pt win. After St. Mary's,
Wich St, and Cal, I can see them coming out toally flat for the 1h
(which has been a problem anyhow). The only question remains, can SD
even capitalize and keep it under 14 or so. Looking to make a 1h play
on SD here.
UNLV @ Louisville
KP -5. A tough test for UNLV. My first instinct, especially after
these 2h lapses by the rebels was to fade them here. But after looking,
I see a major SOS discrepancy. The only team Louisville has played is
Butler, who may be overrated anyway. After that we have Marshall at
home as their toughest game. UNLV has played, and beaten, Wisconsin, Va
Tech, Tulsa, Boise, and Murray - all ranked ahead of Marshall. they
have also gone on the road and gotten some wins. The matchup here is
dead even - both teams very good from the field, and good at defending
it. Louisville attempts more 3pt field goals but misses many (31%).
UNLV hits more often, but Lou D is 4th in the nation vs the three. Is
that a function of their poor competition? Finding a consistent scorer
is the main task for Louisville. They both have a strngeth in depth.
My lean to UNLV + 2 or more possessions would be based on greater FT
rate, better three pt shooting, and a tougher SOS thus far.
NMst @ NM
KP -15. I imagine it will be more like 11, which should still get
plenty of action on NMst. NM lost a big 1h lead and had to win in OT a
week ago at NMst. I was on NM then and got lucky to push. I wrote
this: "Nmst has played a stronger schedule thus far, though NM is
average at least. NMst does one thing well - hit the boards, and NM
struggles there. NM likes to drive and kick for a three or get fouled.
Unfortrunately for NMst, they have a tendency to send other teams to
the line, and don't guard the perimter well. NM runs 11 players in DD
minutes thus far, Nmst runs 8. This is the front end of a H/H with
Nmst. NM won both last year, by DD. Gillenwater will get his but in
the end I don't think it will be enough to keep this one close. They
will really miss McKines here."
Was I right? Well, yes and no. I was wrong on the rotation, as NM only
played 7 guys in an OT game over 10 min, while NM played 8 (tho with
three guys fouling out, may have been a necessity more than anything).
NMst outrebounded NM 42-39, but 23-10 Offensive! and won the TO 20-13,
garnering 24 EXTRA POSSESSIONS. Yup, 24. Shot 31%, and 19% from 3.
Gillenwater certainly got his - 32 pts, but on 8-29, and 3-11 from 3
shooting. Only two other guys in DD, 13,11 for Laroche and castillo.
Just a slight change in shooting % changes the outcome. If 6'11" Rahman
plays, that adds another dimension, and even more depth/rebounding.
Wouldn't be surprised to see this way off the KP projection. like around
10. DD, might have to lean NMst with triple revenge.
Kansas v Co ST. (at Sprint Center)
KP KS -25. KS will win, the only question is by how much. let down
spot for KS, after AZ, UCLA, memphis, going to USC and Cal next (though
after a week off). Co St has a crap SOS, coming off a OT loss vs Co,
now going on the road to face near certain slaughter at the hands of
KS. I think I just saw myself running away from this at Mach 4.
TCU at Nebraska
KP -9. TCU in a familiar spot getting almost DD on the road. SOS adv
to TCU, as Nebraska has not found the low post presence or shooters it
needs. It's defense is currently overrated, as the composite offense
against Neb has been would be ranked 270th. On those factors alone -
have to lean TCU.
NC Central @ AF
KP -11 (maybe 5dimes will have a line) Wright ended up with 16 more
possessions due to offensive boards and TO issues. This will not be a
problem with awful rebounding NC central, who also turns it over
frequently. However, gotta take some of that with a grain of salt as
they have played a very hard schedule, losing in OT to OK, then getting
drilled by Miami and IU. NC Central can shoot a bit and defends the
three. AF allows 3's but should get a few extra possessions in this
one, get to the line and win. By DD? Don't know.
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Saturday
AZ at BYU (@ SLC)
KP -2. BYU and AZ have sub-average SOS so far. AZ lost to KS by 8,
beat OK by 23, BYU beat Utah St. by 6 and St. marys by 1. BYU cleans up
its own glass and doesn't turn the ball over, and they shoot ok. Their
defensive numbers may be a bit inflated as the average O they have
played ranks 229 at 98.6 % efficiency. AZ on the other hand is dominant
on the boards, and shoots a ton of threes, at close to 40% thus far.
However, their offensive numbers are a bit inflated by the weak defenses
they have played. BYU defend the perimeter well with Jimmer and Emery,
and AZ likes the three. One advantage AZ has is in getting to the line
and FT %, as well as depth. BYU does not play a lot of guys besides
6th man Davies, AZ runs 11 deep. BYU always looks great on Kenpom, but
they often have a hard time competing with squads that have superior
athletes - see their first round losses to TX A+M and second round loss
to kst last year. No way I would touch AZ if this game was truly at
home, but in the arena, I would have to lean AZ here.
SD @ SDS
KP -29. Needn't have even looked at this one. I imagine this will open
at 26 or so. There is nothing in this matchup that would suggest SD
can stay that close. The 2nd 5 from SDS could probably beat SD by close
to DD. The only question in a game like this is motivation. I do not
think SDS will have it. They just won for the first time in 70 years at
Cal and won BIG. They truly can go on cruise control for a while til
conference play starts - they might break a sweat against UC Santa
barbara, but that is predicted to be a 14 pt win. After St. Mary's,
Wich St, and Cal, I can see them coming out toally flat for the 1h
(which has been a problem anyhow). The only question remains, can SD
even capitalize and keep it under 14 or so. Looking to make a 1h play
on SD here.
UNLV @ Louisville
KP -5. A tough test for UNLV. My first instinct, especially after
these 2h lapses by the rebels was to fade them here. But after looking,
I see a major SOS discrepancy. The only team Louisville has played is
Butler, who may be overrated anyway. After that we have Marshall at
home as their toughest game. UNLV has played, and beaten, Wisconsin, Va
Tech, Tulsa, Boise, and Murray - all ranked ahead of Marshall. they
have also gone on the road and gotten some wins. The matchup here is
dead even - both teams very good from the field, and good at defending
it. Louisville attempts more 3pt field goals but misses many (31%).
UNLV hits more often, but Lou D is 4th in the nation vs the three. Is
that a function of their poor competition? Finding a consistent scorer
is the main task for Louisville. They both have a strngeth in depth.
My lean to UNLV + 2 or more possessions would be based on greater FT
rate, better three pt shooting, and a tougher SOS thus far.
NMst @ NM
KP -15. I imagine it will be more like 11, which should still get
plenty of action on NMst. NM lost a big 1h lead and had to win in OT a
week ago at NMst. I was on NM then and got lucky to push. I wrote
this: "Nmst has played a stronger schedule thus far, though NM is
average at least. NMst does one thing well - hit the boards, and NM
struggles there. NM likes to drive and kick for a three or get fouled.
Unfortrunately for NMst, they have a tendency to send other teams to
the line, and don't guard the perimter well. NM runs 11 players in DD
minutes thus far, Nmst runs 8. This is the front end of a H/H with
Nmst. NM won both last year, by DD. Gillenwater will get his but in
the end I don't think it will be enough to keep this one close. They
will really miss McKines here."
Was I right? Well, yes and no. I was wrong on the rotation, as NM only
played 7 guys in an OT game over 10 min, while NM played 8 (tho with
three guys fouling out, may have been a necessity more than anything).
NMst outrebounded NM 42-39, but 23-10 Offensive! and won the TO 20-13,
garnering 24 EXTRA POSSESSIONS. Yup, 24. Shot 31%, and 19% from 3.
Gillenwater certainly got his - 32 pts, but on 8-29, and 3-11 from 3
shooting. Only two other guys in DD, 13,11 for Laroche and castillo.
Just a slight change in shooting % changes the outcome. If 6'11" Rahman
plays, that adds another dimension, and even more depth/rebounding.
Wouldn't be surprised to see this way off the KP projection. like around
10. DD, might have to lean NMst with triple revenge.
Kansas v Co ST. (at Sprint Center)
KP KS -25. KS will win, the only question is by how much. let down
spot for KS, after AZ, UCLA, memphis, going to USC and Cal next (though
after a week off). Co St has a crap SOS, coming off a OT loss vs Co,
now going on the road to face near certain slaughter at the hands of
KS. I think I just saw myself running away from this at Mach 4.
TCU at Nebraska
KP -9. TCU in a familiar spot getting almost DD on the road. SOS adv
to TCU, as Nebraska has not found the low post presence or shooters it
needs. It's defense is currently overrated, as the composite offense
against Neb has been would be ranked 270th. On those factors alone -
have to lean TCU.
NC Central @ AF
KP -11 (maybe 5dimes will have a line) Wright ended up with 16 more
possessions due to offensive boards and TO issues. This will not be a
problem with awful rebounding NC central, who also turns it over
frequently. However, gotta take some of that with a grain of salt as
they have played a very hard schedule, losing in OT to OK, then getting
drilled by Miami and IU. NC Central can shoot a bit and defends the
three. AF allows 3's but should get a few extra possessions in this
one, get to the line and win. By DD? Don't know.
Santa Clara - major SOS advantage, suspect D, allows trips to the line, and 3 pters. SJSt gets to the line a bt, shooting 79% from there, but is even more suspect on the defensive end. Coming off three losses, Santa Clara will be motivated, and have the advantage in the Frontcourt. But SJS has decent experienced backcourt. Seems like there might be line value in SC due to SOS.
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Any info on Wise tonight for Irvine?
Anyone else like this play? Santa Clara
Santa Clara - major SOS advantage, suspect D, allows trips to the line, and 3 pters. SJSt gets to the line a bt, shooting 79% from there, but is even more suspect on the defensive end. Coming off three losses, Santa Clara will be motivated, and have the advantage in the Frontcourt. But SJS has decent experienced backcourt. Seems like there might be line value in SC due to SOS.
Santa Clara - major SOS advantage, suspect D, allows trips to the line, and 3 pters. SJSt gets to the line a bt, shooting 79% from there, but is even more suspect on the defensive end. Coming off three losses, Santa Clara will be motivated, and have the advantage in the Frontcourt. But SJS has decent experienced backcourt. Seems like there might be line value in SC due to SOS.
I like SC a lot, wait because that line is going to go up and get it at +4. Got a feeling we're going to see a classic Covers burial with Fairfield and SJST.
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Quote Originally Posted by BandosWB:
Any info on Wise tonight for Irvine?
Anyone else like this play? Santa Clara
Santa Clara - major SOS advantage, suspect D, allows trips to the line, and 3 pters. SJSt gets to the line a bt, shooting 79% from there, but is even more suspect on the defensive end. Coming off three losses, Santa Clara will be motivated, and have the advantage in the Frontcourt. But SJS has decent experienced backcourt. Seems like there might be line value in SC due to SOS.
I like SC a lot, wait because that line is going to go up and get it at +4. Got a feeling we're going to see a classic Covers burial with Fairfield and SJST.
Santa Clara - major SOS advantage, suspect D, allows trips to the line, and 3 pters. SJSt gets to the line a bt, shooting 79% from there, but is even more suspect on the defensive end. Coming off three losses, Santa Clara will be motivated, and have the advantage in the Frontcourt. But SJS has decent experienced backcourt. Seems like there might be line value in SC due to SOS.
Good stuff, Bandos,
I just went to Cal Irvine's website and there was no new information on Wise..(He is going for scoring record and has not played since being injured against USC five games ago). And SportsinSight just says he is ?, if there is an update, I will let you know!
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Quote Originally Posted by BandosWB:
Any info on Wise tonight for Irvine?
Anyone else like this play? Santa Clara
Santa Clara - major SOS advantage, suspect D, allows trips to the line, and 3 pters. SJSt gets to the line a bt, shooting 79% from there, but is even more suspect on the defensive end. Coming off three losses, Santa Clara will be motivated, and have the advantage in the Frontcourt. But SJS has decent experienced backcourt. Seems like there might be line value in SC due to SOS.
Good stuff, Bandos,
I just went to Cal Irvine's website and there was no new information on Wise..(He is going for scoring record and has not played since being injured against USC five games ago). And SportsinSight just says he is ?, if there is an update, I will let you know!
Good stuff Bando all very good points!!! I would also factor in the early start 9am Pac coast time and the revenge factor, we have embarrassed then last 2 matchups. Rebels have had a lot of travel with the rodeo being at the Thomas and Mack along with Finals at school, could be a good letdown spot!!
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Good stuff Bando all very good points!!! I would also factor in the early start 9am Pac coast time and the revenge factor, we have embarrassed then last 2 matchups. Rebels have had a lot of travel with the rodeo being at the Thomas and Mack along with Finals at school, could be a good letdown spot!!
lots of chatter about fairfield/siena, particularly injuries...kids get over injuries real fast...especially on gameday, when there's a kid on the bench, praying the guy in front of him breaks his leg or will be held out...
by any model I use, Farfield's performance curve has been on the downward arc...it has been continuous...Siena's curve has been steadily trending upward...
Hey, Fairfield just might win this game...so be it. However, since this line has dropped to -5 I am all over Siena on the ML...at around -214, it's a steal...when combined with Iowa ML, it's a monster.
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one more thing, bandos:
lots of chatter about fairfield/siena, particularly injuries...kids get over injuries real fast...especially on gameday, when there's a kid on the bench, praying the guy in front of him breaks his leg or will be held out...
by any model I use, Farfield's performance curve has been on the downward arc...it has been continuous...Siena's curve has been steadily trending upward...
Hey, Fairfield just might win this game...so be it. However, since this line has dropped to -5 I am all over Siena on the ML...at around -214, it's a steal...when combined with Iowa ML, it's a monster.
Trim - I've been looking at that Siena line all day. Big big big SOS advantage for Siena. at -5 looks like a steal. Also, looked at IA again - fits a theory I have about fading three pt shooting teams on the road.
Iowa -1/Siena ML 1u to win 1.7u
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Trim - I've been looking at that Siena line all day. Big big big SOS advantage for Siena. at -5 looks like a steal. Also, looked at IA again - fits a theory I have about fading three pt shooting teams on the road.
LVSC UNLV +5 TCU +7.5 BYU -3 Co St +24 NM -14 SDS -22
Reaction: lean AZ, NMst, TCU. Still looking: UNLV looks like a giant NO PLAY: SDS, Co st.
Others that caught my eye Marquette -2 vs wisky (KP has wisky -1) ODU -8 v. Dayton (kp has ODU by 11) Wash -2@ Tx A+M (think this might be a bad matchup for UW) LBst +19 @UNC Richmond -6 v VCU (KP has rich by 9) OK st -3.5 v. Mo st (looks high) Davidson -12 v. Charlotte (spears out and briscoe Q?)
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LVSC UNLV +5 TCU +7.5 BYU -3 Co St +24 NM -14 SDS -22
Reaction: lean AZ, NMst, TCU. Still looking: UNLV looks like a giant NO PLAY: SDS, Co st.
Others that caught my eye Marquette -2 vs wisky (KP has wisky -1) ODU -8 v. Dayton (kp has ODU by 11) Wash -2@ Tx A+M (think this might be a bad matchup for UW) LBst +19 @UNC Richmond -6 v VCU (KP has rich by 9) OK st -3.5 v. Mo st (looks high) Davidson -12 v. Charlotte (spears out and briscoe Q?)
Feels wrong to be involved in so many games tonight but with Wise looking like he is going, I will cut back the amount but still play a more tested, strong SOS, and MUCH TALLER Wyoming team on the road (which is worrisome). Think UC irvine's rebounding numbers are a mirage. We'll see.
Wyoming +3 1.5u
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Feels wrong to be involved in so many games tonight but with Wise looking like he is going, I will cut back the amount but still play a more tested, strong SOS, and MUCH TALLER Wyoming team on the road (which is worrisome). Think UC irvine's rebounding numbers are a mirage. We'll see.
SD opened at +27, so I might still get +14 1h. Az is only at 2, TCU is only at 7, UNLV got pounded, down to +3.5. ODU up to -10. Marq to pk already, Wash still at -2 (Huge SOS difference in this game has me switching sides, or maybe leaning over) LBst down to 17.5 (think that is the right side look ahead to tx vs. a 4 returner LBst squad), Richmond is up to 7, Mo St down to +3, and Davidson at -9.
And Utah is having a wicked hard time getting a look against the D of Michigan. I wrote this "Michigan D might be to much for Utah here. Would look real hard at
Michigan laying anything under 3 possessions as Utah has only played one
gridlock defensive team like Michigan, and lost to Utah State by 17.
Michigan's D is comparable to Ut State, and Utah scored a wicked
inefficient 62 pts on 73 possessions." But it never got to 6 or 7.
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I played
New Mexico State +14 1u
SD opened at +27, so I might still get +14 1h. Az is only at 2, TCU is only at 7, UNLV got pounded, down to +3.5. ODU up to -10. Marq to pk already, Wash still at -2 (Huge SOS difference in this game has me switching sides, or maybe leaning over) LBst down to 17.5 (think that is the right side look ahead to tx vs. a 4 returner LBst squad), Richmond is up to 7, Mo St down to +3, and Davidson at -9.
And Utah is having a wicked hard time getting a look against the D of Michigan. I wrote this "Michigan D might be to much for Utah here. Would look real hard at
Michigan laying anything under 3 possessions as Utah has only played one
gridlock defensive team like Michigan, and lost to Utah State by 17.
Michigan's D is comparable to Ut State, and Utah scored a wicked
inefficient 62 pts on 73 possessions." But it never got to 6 or 7.
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0-1. Back to some level of discipline. Here are my writeups of this weekends Mountain West Games. Lines will be out Friday at 5pm or so and might want to hit some right then, so I wanted to get some feedback on these games.
nice writeups 
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